Assessing the European Union’s Enlargement Prospects: Spotlight on Iceland’s Accession

1. Summary

• As of May 18, 2025, the examination of the European Union's enlargement prospects highlights the intricate interplay between legal, political, economic, and social factors that shape membership applications. The criteria for accession, prominently outlined in the Copenhagen and Maastricht frameworks, serve as benchmarks for potential members, including Iceland, and reflect the principles of democracy, rule of law, and market economy. The recent dynamics of EU enlargement reveal a pressing need for political cohesion and economic preparedness among candidate countries, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, notably the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• Public opinion has become a pivotal influence on EU membership discussions, as evidenced by trends in Ireland and Italy. As Ireland grapples with declining support for the EU amidst rising discontent over representation and economic pressures, Italy's political landscape exhibits significant shifts, with populist sentiments reshaping attitudes toward EU membership. The impact of Brexit continues to resonate, creating a complex backdrop that affects public perceptions in both nations. This amalgamation of factors underscores the need for the EU to address domestic concerns while pursuing the strategic integration of its candidate countries and enhancing its collective security.

• Economic integration remains a crucial aspect of accession discussions, particularly concerning euro adoption. Central European states reflect the broader hesitance to embrace the euro despite EU membership, presenting considerable challenges for both existing and aspiring members like Iceland. The reliance on economic convergence requirements complicates the accession process, as nations work to address both technical criterions and changing public attitudes towards integration. Iceland's stalled application—frozen since 2015—illustrates the delicate balance that candidates must strike between alignment with EU standards and their own national priorities.

• In light of these developments, the outcomes of the 2025 European Political Community summit shed light on the EU’s strategy for addressing rising security concerns. The summit underscored the importance of unity among European nations in confronting external threats, positioning enlargement as a strategic response to regional instability. Consequently, the EU faces a dual imperative: to invigorate its enlargement strategy while ensuring that new members can contribute meaningfully to collective security and economic stability. This coupled approach will ultimately dictate the trajectory of the EU’s expansion ambitions in the years to come.

2. EU Enlargement Framework

• 2-1. Overview of Copenhagen and Maastricht criteria

• The Copenhagen criteria, established in 1993, set the fundamental standards for European Union membership. They entail three main requirements: a stable institution guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, a functioning market economy, and the ability to take on the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic, and monetary union. As of May 18, 2025, these criteria remain the cornerstone of accession negotiations and are consistently applied to candidate countries, ensuring that new members are capable of contributing to and benefiting from EU policies and initiatives.

• The Maastricht Treaty furthered the integration process, emphasizing economic and political union, paving the way for the euro and closer cooperation in foreign affairs and security. The rigorous adherence to these criteria and the stipulations outlined in the treaty ensure that enlargement not only expands the EU geographically but also strengthens its normative and political base.

• 2-2. Role of the European Commission and Council

• The European Commission plays a pivotal role in the EU enlargement process by conducting assessments of candidate countries against the established criteria. It provides annual reports that outline the progress made by each candidate in various sectors including rule of law, human rights, and economic performance. As of May 18, 2025, these reports are instrumental in shaping negotiations and setting priorities for each country's accession path.

• The European Council, composed of the heads of state or government of EU member states, holds the ultimate authority in the enlargement process. It decides on the opening and closing of negotiations and must reach a consensus on the admission of new members. The political dynamics within the Council can significantly influence the timeline and terms of accession, making it essential for candidate nations to engage effectively with member states to foster support for their applications.

• 2-3. Current candidate and potential candidate list

• As of May 18, 2025, the official candidates for EU membership include countries such as Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey. Each of these nations is at various stages of their accession negotiations, with some encountering delays due to political, economic, or social challenges within their borders. For example, Turkey's lengthy accession process has been complicated by concerns over human rights and democratic backsliding, affecting both public support within the EU and political will among member states.

• In addition to formal candidates, the EU also recognizes potential candidates, including Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their progress towards fulfilling the accession criteria varies, largely influenced by regional stability and the political landscape. The EU's ongoing geopolitical considerations, especially in light of security concerns stemming from conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, pose significant implications for future enlargement, with added pressure to integrate Western Balkan states to bolster regional stability and progression toward European integration.

3. Public Opinion on EU Membership

• 3-1. Irish support trends for EU membership

• As of May 2025, public support for Ireland's membership in the European Union remains high, although it has experienced a notable decline. A recent poll published on May 7, 2025, revealed that support has fallen to 82%, the lowest level recorded since 2013. This survey, conducted by Amarach Research for European Movement Ireland, highlights significant concerns among the Irish populace regarding the representation of their views at the EU level. Specifically, 43% of respondents expressed that they feel their opinions are not adequately reflected in EU decision-making processes. Moreover, 34% believe the EU is not upholding its core values and 26% are dissatisfied with the direction the EU is taking. These findings suggest a growing discontent that could influence future EU-related policies and negotiations, especially amidst ongoing geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• In terms of pressing local concerns, the poll indicated that the cost of living topped the list for 56% of respondents, followed by housing (41%) and migration issues (53%). This multifaceted landscape illustrates a complex relationship between domestic issues and broader EU policies, which may impact how Irish citizens perceive the EU's role in their lives.

• 3-2. Italian political shifts and populist influence

• Italy's political landscape has experienced significant shifts, particularly exemplified by the rise of Giorgia Meloni's party, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), which has surged to a historic high of 31% in voter preference as of April 2025. This increase reflects a broader trend of consolidation among center-right parties and poses challenges for opposition entities like the Democratic Party (PD), which is struggling with declining popularity. The political dynamics in Italy suggest a polarized electorate, with Meloni's coalition enjoying substantial support while the opposition remains fragmented and increasingly unable to mount effective challenges.

• These political shifts are relevant in the context of EU membership attitudes, as concerns regarding European policies, including defense and security cooperation, have become critical in the ongoing public discourse. The fragmentation of the left and the rise of populism may contribute to a critical reevaluation of Italy's relationship with the EU, particularly following experiences such as Brexit, which have heightened skepticism towards the Union among some segments of the population.

• 3-3. Impact of Brexit on public perceptions

• Brexit has profoundly influenced public perceptions of the European Union, creating a complex backdrop against which current EU membership sentiments in both Ireland and Italy must be understood. In Ireland, concerns related to Brexit—such as the implications for the Northern Ireland protocol and trade relations—have heightened awareness of EU membership's significance. Polls have indicated that many Irish citizens, particularly in Northern Ireland, feel that the changes in the EU-UK relationship have not fostered improved connections with the EU. In this context, 60% of respondents in Northern Ireland reported dissatisfaction with the new dynamics.

• In Italy, Brexit's impact is apparent in the rising populist sentiment, with parties like Fratelli d’Italia harnessing public dissatisfaction. The narrative surrounding EU fragmentation and membership has given rise to a mixed sentiment; while some Italian citizens remain supportive of EU membership, scepticism persists, significantly influenced by the unpredictable outcomes associated with Brexit. As Italy approaches upcoming elections, these sentiments will play a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes and potential shifts in policy towards the EU.

4. Economic Integration Challenges: Euro Adoption vs. Accession

• 4-1. Central Europe’s reluctance to adopt the euro

• Central European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary exhibit significant reluctance to adopt the euro, despite being members of the European Union for nearly two decades. As of May 2025, Bulgaria and Romania are the only nations actively pursuing euro membership, creating a divide within the EU regarding euro adoption. The Czech Republic, despite previously committing to euro adoption, remains outside the eurozone, sparking debates about the nation's commitment to this goal. Recent commentary points out that the country satisfies all Maastricht criteria and would benefit economically from adopting the euro, particularly through facilitating trade and investment. Furthermore, the predominance of euro-denominated loans within Czech businesses suggests a pragmatic shift towards euro integration, even as public sentiment remains largely Eurosceptic, with surveys indicating about 72% of Czechs oppose euro adoption. This contradiction manifests politically, as parties have increasingly aligned with populist sentiments against the euro rather than addressing its economic benefits further.

• 4-2. Economic convergence requirements for new members

• Economic convergence is crucial for any EU member state aspiring to join the eurozone, requiring countries to meet specific economic and fiscal criteria. As of May 18, 2025, both Poland and Hungary illustrate the complexity of fulfilling these convergence requirements. In Poland, the current public deficit exceeds the 3% of GDP requirement, and structural economic issues prevent the country from meeting the necessary stability criteria immediately. Economists continue to argue that even if Poland meets these financial thresholds in the coming years, public opposition to the euro remains a formidable barrier to successful adoption. Hungary faces similar challenges as public sentiment largely supports euro adoption, yet the narrative against European integration persists among political elites, conditional complexities arise regarding potential economic sovereignty loss. The situation underscores the dual challenge facing these economies—navigating the stringent euro requirements while simultaneously addressing rising Europhobia among their citizens.

• 4-3. Implications for small economies like Iceland

• For smaller economies like Iceland, the pursuit of euro adoption involves unique considerations that intersect economic stability with public sentiment. Although Iceland is not yet a member of the EU, its ambition to accede has been affected by the broader euro adoption challenges evident in Central Europe. The effects of the Eurozone’s economic health on small economies are significant; however, Iceland’s focus remains on balancing economic stability with public opinion on currency adoption. As noted in regional analyses, adopting the euro could enhance Iceland’s economic credibility and security amidst regional instability stemming from geopolitical tensions. Yet, similar to the debates in neighboring countries, Icelandic citizens demonstrate a cautionary attitude towards euro adoption, indicating a need for comprehensive public discourse on the long-term benefits and risks of such a strategic move. Ultimately, Iceland's accession perspectives compel it to cautiously navigate both economic integration and the sentiment dynamics around euro adoption that have shaped policy furniture in Central European contexts.

5. Iceland’s Accession Prospects

• 5-1. History and status of Iceland’s 2009 application

• Iceland submitted its application to join the European Union in July 2009, following the financial crisis that severely impacted the nation's economy. This application was motivated by a desire for economic stability and access to the single market. However, subsequent political shifts, especially the 2013 elections, led to a suspension of the accession talks, as the newly elected government prioritized national interests and public sentiment which was increasingly skeptical of EU membership. The application remains officially under consideration, but real progress has been stagnant since talks were effectively halted by the government in 2015.

• 5-2. Domestic political and public opinion dynamics

• As of May 2025, the domestic political climate in Iceland reflects a complex relationship with the EU. Public opinion polls illustrate a divided sentiment toward EU membership; many Icelanders express concerns over issues such as sovereignty and economic autonomy that could be diminished by EU regulations. Recent polling indicates that support for EU accession has fluctuated, often aligning with economic conditions and geopolitical events. Political parties remain divided, with some advocating for renewed talks on EU membership, while others strongly oppose it, focusing instead on strengthening Iceland’s independent policies.

• 5-3. Key negotiation chapters and outstanding benchmarks

• Iceland's accession negotiations, when revived, would need to address several key chapters of the EU acquis, particularly in areas such as the free movement of goods, services, and labor. Outstanding benchmarks include environmental protection standards, agricultural policies, and fisheries management, which are particularly sensitive sectors in Iceland. The country’s unique geography and economy pose specific challenges that need careful negotiation to align with EU standards. As of the current date, there are indications that Iceland would require substantial adjustments and economic reforms, highlighting the complexities of re-engaging with the accession process.

6. Security and Geopolitical Considerations

• 6-1. Outcomes of the 2025 European Political Community summit in Albania

• The 2025 European Political Community (EPC) summit, held on May 15, 2025, in Tirana, Albania, brought together leaders from 47 European countries to address pressing security and defense challenges, particularly in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The summit emphasized unity and joint action as paramount themes against the backdrop of regional instability exacerbated by the ongoing conflict. Leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, discussed strategies for enhanced cooperation and collective security measures, reflecting a growing consensus that a united European response is essential in countering Russian aggression and mitigating its implications for neighboring countries. The summit served not only as a platform for multilateral discussions but also facilitated bilateral meetings to strengthen ties and explore mutual concerns over defense and policy.

• A notable outcome of the summit was a reinforced commitment among participating nations to support Ukraine, expanding military aid and defense capabilities. Leaders agreed on the importance of maintaining pressure on Russia until a substantial resolution is achieved, aligning on the notion that a ceasefire and eventual peace talks are critical, albeit currently unattainable given Russia's stance.

• 6-2. Russia–Ukraine war impact on EU security policy

• The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has had profound implications for European Union (EU) security policy, catalyzing a significant reevaluation of defense strategies among member states. As of May 2025, the conflict has prompted calls for increased military collaboration and investment in defense capabilities across Europe, aiming to enhance collective security against potential threats from Russia. The war has underscored the vulnerability of EU member states to external aggression, leading to a shift from previous policies of diplomatic engagement to a more robust military preparedness framework.

• The strategic landscape has also influenced the EU's relations with candidate countries for accession, necessitating a more nuanced and security-conscious approach to enlargement discussions. The prospect of integrating countries like Iceland into the EU framework is now viewed through the lens of collective defense and regional stability, recognizing that enlargement could serve as a deterrent against further Russian aggression.

• 6-3. Enlargement as a strategic response to regional instability

• The EU's series of enlargement phases has increasingly been positioned as a strategic response to regional instability, particularly influenced by the Russian conflict in Ukraine. As of May 2025, there is growing recognition that close ties with neighboring countries can bolster regional security and counterbalance Russian influence. This perspective shifts from merely expanding the EU economically or politically to viewing enlargement as a crucial component of a broader security strategy.

• Proponents argue that including countries like Iceland can enhance collective security frameworks and promote democratic stability in Europe. The EU has been urged to streamline its accession processes, ensuring that candidate countries are not only economically viable but also strategically positioned to contribute to continental defense. By doing so, the EU can encapsulate a vision of security and cooperation in the face of external threats, harnessing its potential expansion as a force for peace and stability in Europe.

Conclusion

• As of May 18, 2025, the European Union finds itself at a pivotal juncture, navigating the delicate equilibrium between fostering political solidarity and pursuing strategic enlargement. Public sentiment in established member states remains robust, yet the complexities of economic integration and emerging security threats necessitate a recalibration of the EU's enlargement strategy. The ongoing stagnation of Iceland's accession bid—essentially dormant since 2015—poses significant challenges, including meeting technical criteria and generating sufficient political will domestically.

• Revitalizing Iceland's application will require a multifaceted approach from the EU. Suggestions include streamlining negotiation processes to address specific accession chapters efficiently, extending tailored economic support, and incorporating security cooperation incentives to forge strong ties between existing members and candidates. This holistic framework aims to stimulate wider support for the accession agenda, foster regional stability, and address legitimate concerns regarding national sovereignty amidst deeper integration.

• The strategic significance of enlargement has never been more pronounced, especially under the looming shadows of geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty. The EU's ability to adapt to these realities while maintaining rigorous standards for entry will determine the future landscape of its membership. As the Union embarks on its next enlargement phase, the integration of countries like Iceland into its fold not only reinforces economic bonds but strategically positions the EU as a cohesive entity capable of effectively addressing contemporary challenges. Moving forward, the key will be to harmonize the EU’s foundational principles with urgent political realities, ensuring that enlargement serves not merely as a policy goal but as an imperative for collective resilience and growth.

Glossary

• European Union (EU): A political and economic union of 27 member states located primarily in Europe. Established with the aim of promoting integration and ensuring freedom of movement for goods, services, labor, and capital, the EU has a significant role in setting policies that affect its members and candidate countries.

• Accession: The process by which a country becomes a member of the European Union. This involves meeting specific criteria laid out in frameworks like the Copenhagen criteria and undergoing rigorous negotiations on various policy areas to align with EU laws and standards.

• Copenhagen Criteria: Standards set by the European Council in 1993 that candidate countries must meet to join the EU. These criteria include a stable democratic system, rule of law, human rights, a functioning market economy, and acceptance of EU laws and norms.

• Maastricht Treaty: A foundational treaty of the EU, signed in 1992, which laid the groundwork for the creation of the euro and reinforced the commitment to deeper economic and political integration among member states.

• Euro Adoption: The process by which EU member states transition to using the euro as their official currency. This involves meeting specific economic criteria and aligning national policies with EU regulations to facilitate economic stability and integration.

• Candidate Countries: Nations that have applied for EU membership and are undergoing the accession process. As of May 18, 2025, these include Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey, among others.

• Brexit: The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, officially completed on January 31, 2020. This event has had lasting implications on EU relations, public opinions, and policy considerations in both the UK and EU member states.

• Public Opinion Trends: Shifts in the perceptions and attitudes of the public towards EU membership and policies, which can significantly influence national political dynamics and the accession process of candidate countries.

• European Political Community (EPC): An initiative aimed at fostering political cooperation among European states beyond the EU framework. The EPC holds summits to address security and defense challenges, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• Economic Convergence Requirements: Criteria that EU candidate countries must meet to adopt the euro. These include maintaining a stable public deficit, controlling inflation, and ensuring a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio, critical for economic integration into the eurozone.

• Geopolitical Considerations: Factors relating to the impact of geographic and political influences on international relations and security policy. These considerations are increasingly pivotal for EU member states in light of threats like the Russia-Ukraine war.

• Stalled Application: Refers to the status of Iceland's EU membership application that has been effectively inactive since 2015 due to political shifts and public sentiment against EU accession, complicating its prospects for future integration.

Source Documents

• ‘War crime’: Russian drone strike claims nine lives in northeastern Ukraine hours after ‘failed’ peace talks | Today Newshttps://www.livemint.com/news/world/war-crime-russian-drone-strike-claims-nine-lives-in-northeastern-ukraine-hours-after-failed-peace-talks-moscowkyiv-11747465430501.html
• European leaders meet in Albania to debate security concerns against Russia-Ukraine war backdrophttps://www.clickondetroit.com/news/world/2025/05/16/european-leaders-meet-in-albania-to-debate-security-concerns-against-russia-ukraine-war-backdrop/
• Support for Irish membership of EU at lowest level since 2013, poll suggestshttps://www.kilkennypeople.ie/news/northern-ireland/1796343/support-for-irish-membership-of-eu-at-lowest-level-since-2013-poll-suggests.html
• Central Europe's euro dilemmahttps://voxeurop.eu/en/central-europe-euro-dilemma/
• Fratelli D’Italia Surges To 31% In Latest Polls - The Pinnacle Gazettehttps://evrimagaci.org/tpg/fratelli-ditalia-surges-to-31-in-latest-polls-330859
• The British’s Social and Cultural Structures - World Policy Hubhttps://worldpolicyhub.com/the-britishs-social-and-cultural-structures/