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Global Tourism Under Seismic and Policy Shocks: Disruptions, Advisories, and Resilience Strategies (April 2025)

General Report April 28, 2025
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  • In the period leading up to April 2025, a series of impactful seismic events has ignited a widespread downturn in global tourism, reflecting the intricate relationship between natural disasters and the travel industry. The catastrophic 7.7-magnitude earthquake on March 28, 2025, near Mandalay, Myanmar, not only resulted in significant human casualties—over 3, 000 confirmed dead—but has also led to severe infrastructural damage and socioeconomic disruptions across Southeast Asia. As the region experiences ongoing operational challenges in restoring travel and tourism activities, the cumulative toll of these events has been exacerbated by the psychological impact of safety concerns among international travelers. Early figures indicate a marked decline in bookings for hotels, airlines, and cruises, with areas like Taiwan and Japan facing occupancy drops of 18% and 22% respectively, in the aftermath of the earthquakes. These figures exemplify the pronounced hesitation from consumers when considering travel to regions deemed at risk.

  • Ongoing operational challenges, particularly at airports like Mandalay International, which suffered significant damage—including a collapsed air traffic control tower—exemplify the logistical hurdles impeding recovery. Airlines in Thailand also underwent scrutiny but managed to resume operations relatively quickly. In the United States, the convergence of shifting political policies and rising tariffs has compounded the decline in inbound tourism demand. Recent advisories from the U.S. State Department, alongside Canada’s expanded list of high-risk destinations, indicate a global shift in traveler sentiment, limiting outbound tourism potential. The repercussions are notably felt within countries heavily reliant on tourism, including Mexico and Lebanon, facing increased cancellations and diminished economic outcomes due to heightened perceptions of risk and instability.

  • In response, both governmental entities and private firms are mobilizing resilience measures. Jamaica's proactive tourism resilience framework serves as a case study in adaptive strategies aimed to restore traveler confidence and promote safety. The introduction of initiatives tailored to diversify tourism offerings and enhance traveler assurance underscores an industry adjusting to the new normal of travel post-disruption. Trip.com’s innovative expansion of childcare leave policies reflects a growing trend among companies to prioritize employee welfare, which in turn fosters a healthier, more motivated workforce capable of providing enhanced customer experiences. These evolving strategies are crucial for anchoring the longevity and sustainability of the tourism sector against the backdrop of ongoing global challenges.

Seismic Disasters and Their Toll

  • Chronology of major earthquakes in Southeast Asia and beyond

  • On March 28, 2025, a catastrophic 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, particularly impacting areas around Mandalay, where it led to widespread devastation and considerable loss of life. This event, along with later tremors, resulted in interconnected seismic activity across Southeast Asia, including significant aftershocks that echoed throughout the region. Reports indicate that the earthquake’s epicenter was located just 50 kilometers from Monywa, triggering tremors felt as far away as Thailand, Vietnam, and even parts of China.

  • Prior to this, the region had been experiencing a series of earthquakes earlier in 2025. Notably, the seismic incidents during late March included a 6.4-magnitude quake, exacerbating conditions and leading to mass evacuations and significant infrastructural damage in areas already grappling with socio-political instability. As of mid-April, the collective toll of these seismic events was mounting, with thousands displaced and many regions declaring states of emergency due to safety assessments and infrastructure collapses.

  • Human casualties and infrastructure damage in Myanmar, Thailand and neighboring countries

  • The earthquake in Myanmar decimated communities, leading to confirmed casualties of over 3, 000 dead and thousands injured. Infrastructure in cities like Mandalay and Naypyidaw was severely impacted, with homes, hospitals, and cultural sites suffering catastrophic damage. The historic Ava Bridge, an essential connecting route, collapsed, paralyzing transport and access for both locals and tourists. Consequently, the tourism sector, which had been wrestling with the fallout from earlier political unrest, faced an almost total collapse as infrastructure for hospitality and tourism became nonviable.

  • In Thailand, the repercussions were similarly grave, where a 30-story building under construction collapsed in Bangkok, killing several workers and injuring many more. This incident prompted immediate safety inspections across the city’s high-rises, particularly those within tourist-heavy districts. Although the overall death toll in Thailand remained lower, the psychological impact of such a significant disaster crippled tourist confidence, resulting in increased cancellations and travel advisories from multiple countries.

  • Geological scope of tremors reaching Taiwan, Japan, US, Tonga, Brazil and Vanuatu

  • The seismic disruptions from the Myanmar earthquake resonated far beyond Southeast Asia, affecting regions as diverse as Taiwan, Japan, the United States, and even regions in Tonga and Brazil. In Taiwan and Japan, notable tremors registered, raising safety concerns in regions accustomed to seismic preparedness but still vulnerable to sudden and powerful quakes.

  • Pacific islands such as Vanuatu reported significant disturbances which hindered cruise and airline operations, contributing to broader regional disruptions within the tourism sector. Brazil, though similarly less affected structurally, experienced heightened anxiety around tourist safety as tremors were reported, illustrating the extensive psychological and operational reach of seismic activity. The events highlight an interconnectedness where a major earthquake can have ripple effects across continents, impacting global tourism dynamics and traveler sentiment.

Tourism Industry Disruptions

  • Hotel, cruise and airline booking cancellations and slowdown trends

  • The seismic events occurring in recent weeks have significantly disrupted the tourism sector across multiple regions, particularly in Southeast Asia. Recent data reveals that hotel bookings in highly affected areas such as Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, and Myanmar have seen marked declines. For instance, in Taiwan, hotel occupancy plummeted by 18%, while Japan's experienced a 22% dip post-earthquake. In Thailand, the hotel sector faced a 15% reduction in bookings for April and May, driven by safety concerns from international travelers. Moreover, the cruise industry is witnessing a sharp decline, with rerouted itineraries and cancellations impacting port revenues. For example, Vanuatu reported a dramatic 35% drop in port bookings this quarter, exacerbating the economic stress on local tourism-related businesses.

  • Airline operations have similarly been adversely affected, with reports indicating an overall 13% drop in regional seat occupancy in recently shaken areas. Several airlines, including ANA, JAL, and EVA Air, have reduced flight capacities due to diminished demand, while the travel insurance sector is experiencing an uptick in claims and inquiries as passengers reassess the safety of their travel plans. This cancellation trend highlights a broader issue of reduced consumer confidence in traveling to earthquake-prone regions, which is prompting cautious reevaluations of pre-existing vacation plans.

  • Operational challenges at airports and airlines in affected regions

  • The recent earthquakes have imposed severe operational challenges on airports and airlines within the affected regions. In Myanmar, Mandalay International Airport experienced significant structural damage, rendering its operations severely compromised. Footage revealed considerable destruction, including a collapsed air traffic control tower, necessitating emergency measures and international assistance for recovery efforts. As a result, the airport's functional capacity is severely hindered, leading to major disruptions in both domestic and international flights for the foreseeable future.

  • Conversely, Thailand's airports were fortunate to avoid major structural damage, enabling a quicker resumption of normal operations. Still, the broader region's overall travel sentiment has been heavily impacted, with increased safety measures resulting in minor delays and heightened scrutiny of flights heading to or from neighboring countries. Airlines, including AirAsia and Malaysia Airlines, while continuing operations, have adjusted their safety protocols and communicated the potential for temporary disruptions to passengers. These proactive measures reflect an industry-wide effort to navigate both operational realities and customer safety concerns.

  • Impact of U.S. policy shifts on inbound tourism demand

  • Simultaneously, U.S. policy shifts are contributing to a decline in inbound tourism. Changing political landscapes, characterized by new regulations and tariffs, have led travelers to reconsider their trips to the U.S. For instance, the U.S. has historically been a top destination for international tourists, attracting approximately 66.5 million visitors in 2023. However, recent projections suggest a decline in inbound travel, with estimates indicating a drop of about 5.5% for 2024 due to rising concerns associated with the political climate, including tariffs and the current administration's rhetoric regarding foreign visitors.

  • Data suggests that this discontent has resulted in significant cancellations, particularly from Canadian tourists, who constitute the largest international tourist group for the U.S. Recent surveys indicated that 36% of Canadians have canceled their planned visits, leading to alarming declines in airline bookings and negatively impacting travel-related revenues. This downturn in traveler sentiment, combined with structural challenges caused by seismic activities abroad, poses a compounded threat to the U.S. tourism sector's resilience.

Travel Advisories and Policy Disruptions

  • U.S. State Department warnings affecting travel to multiple countries

  • As of March 2025, the U.S. State Department has issued significant travel warnings for various countries including Burundi, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Honduras, Venezuela, Mexico, Syria, and Iraq. These advisories, categorized under heightened scrutiny, were prompted by growing concerns regarding terrorism, crime, and political instability which directly inhibit international tourism. Travelers are strongly encouraged to reconsider their travel plans to these regions due to increased risks associated with such conditions, which often result in economic setbacks for the tourism-reliant sectors in these nations.

  • The potential impacts of these warnings have been profound. As American travelers tend to heavily influence global tourism trends, the advisories have led to drastic declines in tourism revenue for countries like Mexico and Lebanon, which are already grappling with significant local security challenges. For instance, areas within Mexico have seen heightened cartel violence which has not only discouraged travelers but has led to cancellations and reduced bookings across travel services. Similarly, in Lebanon, ongoing economic instability and security risks have made recovery in the tourism sector increasingly difficult. These circumstances illustrate the cascading effects of travel advisories, as they not only redirect the flow of tourism but also significantly modify the economic landscapes of the affected regions.

  • Canada’s expanded high-risk advisory list and its sectoral impact

  • In late March 2025, Canada expanded its travel advisory list to include several high-risk countries such as Saudi Arabia, France, China, Italy, the UAE, Spain, Brazil, India, and South Africa. This move was characterized as a response to increasing risks related to terrorism, violent crime, and political instability, cumulatively fuelling caution among Canadian travelers and affecting their willingness to visit these destinations. The implications of this expanded list could lead to notable downturns in international tourism as Canadian travelers exercise more caution, likely opting for destinations perceived as safer.

  • Particularly in travel-dependent regions like the Caribbean and parts of Europe, the expanded advisory could deter visitors, leading to both short-term and long-term economic ramifications. Destinations are likely to increase promotional efforts around safety and enhanced security measures to reassure potential travelers and restore their confidence in visiting these areas. The economic impact is expected to be significant, affecting local businesses that rely on tourism, and could require re-strategizing by governments and tourism boards to mitigate these challenges.

  • Role of global tariffs in shaping travel confidence

  • The impact of global tariffs on tourism has emerged as a critical issue during this period. The Minister of Tourism for Jamaica, Edmund Bartlett, highlighted that while tourism does not directly involve the trading of goods, the implicit effects of tariffs create a shadow over planning and operational costs, which can influence ticket prices and overall travel expenses. The shifting economic landscape resulting from tariffs complicates perceptions around travel safety and desirability, prompting travelers to reconsider their plans based on financial considerations as well as safety risks related to external geopolitical factors.

  • Moreover, increasing tariffs can act as an economic brake, not just on individual travel decisions but also on broader tourism flows. The uncertainty embedded in such global policy changes tends to compound worries associated with local security threats and civil unrest, ultimately discouraging potential travelers from visiting impacted regions. In juxtaposition, tourism boards must navigate these dynamics diligently to foster a secure environment that prioritizes traveler confidence, even amidst external pressures stemming from tariff impositions.

Resilience and Adaptation Strategies

  • Jamaica’s tourism resilience framework and future outlook

  • Jamaica has developed a proactive tourism resilience framework aimed at enhancing its ability to withstand and recover from disruptions, such as the recent seismic activities and policy changes affecting global travel dynamics. The Minister of Tourism, Edmund Bartlett, highlighted that the Caribbean region, and Jamaica in particular, has historically been highly dependent on tourism as a key economic driver. This dependency underscores the necessity for a robust strategy that addresses vulnerabilities imposed by global shifts, including tariffs and adverse perceptions resulting from natural disasters. As part of this framework, Jamaica has established a tourism resilience and crisis management center, which allows for better preparedness and response to crises. Additionally, the island is diversifying its tourism offerings into luxury, sports, and health and wellness sectors, promoting economic resilience by tapping into various market segments. This diversification is complemented by infrastructural investments, including the development of new roads and an airport in the Negril resort area, aimed at reducing overtourism and expanding access to less frequented destinations. Jamaica's capacity to recover from adversity quickly is notable, having seen a significant rebound in visitor numbers post-pandemic. Currently, with over 4.3 million visitors annually and tourism earnings for the country doubling to around $4 billion, the focus remains on maintaining these gains through strategic resilience measures.

  • Trip.com’s global childcare leave policy as an industry benchmark

  • On April 3, 2025, Trip.com Group announced an innovative expansion of its global childcare leave policy, adding three additional paid days for parents with children under 18. This strategic move highlights Trip.com’s commitment to employee welfare and sets a significant precedent within the travel and tourism industry, especially as the sector copes with the challenges of post-pandemic recovery and ongoing supply chain issues. Trip.com’s extended childcare leave policy reflects a broader trend in the industry to prioritize family-friendly practices, addressing the need for a supportive work-life balance among employees. According to employee feedback, the decision has been met with positive reactions, emphasizing the role of such policies in enhancing job satisfaction and retention. By nurturing a more inclusive culture, Trip.com not only boosts morale but also establishes a competitive advantage in attracting and retaining top talent in a challenging employment landscape. This policy can serve as a model for other companies, as its ramifications extend beyond simply gaining employee approval; it positions Trip.com at the forefront of a movement towards more sustainable, employee-centered practices within the industry.

  • Planned initiatives to restore traveler confidence and diversify offerings

  • As the global travel landscape evolves in response to recent seismic and policy shocks, stakeholders in the tourism industry are actively developing initiatives designed to restore traveler confidence. These initiatives are crucial for fostering a sense of security and reliability in travel experiences. Both Jamaica and Trip.com are at the forefront of these efforts. Jamaica’s planned initiatives include promoting its safety and health protocols, diversifying tourism markets, and enhancing its infrastructure to support sustainable tourism development. The establishment of a potential 'tourism resilience fee' at points of consumption would provide a financial cushion for future crises, ensuring ongoing support for recovery initiatives. On the corporate side, companies like Trip.com are likely to continue bolstering their employee-centered policies, further enhancing their reputations as leading employers within the travel sector. The increased focus on employee welfare translates to better customer service and satisfaction, which are critical for restoring traveler trust. As the industry moves forward, collaboration among governments, tourism boards, and private companies will be essential in implementing these initiatives, ensuring a holistic approach that strengthens resilience while adapting to the evolving traveler demands and market conditions.

Wrap Up

  • As of April 2025, the intersection of seismic challenges and evolving travel policies has vividly highlighted the vulnerability of the global tourism landscape. The catastrophic earthquakes have left a lasting impact on both human and infrastructural elements, necessitating urgent relief and comprehensive recovery strategies. Concurrently, the influence of policy shifts—including heightened travel advisories and tariff changes—demonstrates the profound effect that non-geological factors have on consumer confidence in travel. National frameworks such as Jamaica's resilience planning, along with corporate innovations like Trip.com's family-friendly initiatives, serve as valuable models in navigating the complicated recovery landscape. Stakeholders are enlightened by these approaches and must prioritize similar strategies to foster resilience and adaptability within the tourism sector.

  • Looking forward, the path to recovery revolves around a concerted effort to diversify tourism markets while enhancing crisis-management frameworks. The anticipated establishment of initiatives like Jamaica's 'tourism resilience fee' signifies a proactive approach to building a financial buffer for future shocks. Collaborations between governmental bodies, tourism boards, and private enterprises will be crucial to implementing these strategies. By collectively addressing the evolving demands of travelers and facilitating environments that prioritize safety and adaptability, the global tourism sector can work toward regaining stability and growth. The ongoing analysis and adaptation will be paramount as stakeholders strive for sustained resilience in the face of both natural and political turbulence.

Glossary

  • Earthquake: A sudden and intense shaking of the ground caused by movements along fault lines. The 7.7-magnitude earthquake near Mandalay, Myanmar on March 28, 2025, resulted in significant casualties and infrastructure damage, highlighting not only the immediate physical impacts but also long-term socio-economic disruptions in the affected regions.
  • Travel Advisory: Official warnings issued by governments to inform citizens about the risks associated with traveling to certain countries. In March 2025, the U.S. State Department issued travel advisories for multiple countries, warning travelers of increased risks due to terrorism, crime, and political instability, which have significantly affected global tourism dynamics.
  • Booking Slowdown: A notable decrease in reservations for travel services such as hotels, airlines, and cruises. Following the recent earthquakes and policy changes, there has been a reported decline in bookings across several regions, reflecting heightened safety concerns among travelers.
  • US Policy: Refers to the regulations and political decisions made by the United States government that impact various sectors, including tourism. Recent shifts in U.S. policy, including tariffs and travel advisories, have adversely affected inbound tourism demand, particularly from countries like Canada, which is a major source of visitors.
  • Safety Concerns: Apprehensions regarding the safety and security of traveling to particular destinations. In the aftermath of the earthquakes and political instability, international travelers have expressed increased safety concerns, leading to reduced travel confidence and trip cancellations.
  • Infrastructure Damage: Destruction or impairment of physical structures essential for support and operations in a given area, such as transportation, communication, and emergency services. The recent earthquakes have led to significant infrastructure damage in communities across Southeast Asia, complicating the recovery of the tourism sector.
  • Global Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods between countries that can affect prices and trade policies. Rising global tariffs have compounded the challenges for the tourism sector by indirectly affecting the costs of travel and reducing demand due to increased travel expenses.
  • Resilience Strategies: Plans and actions aimed at enhancing the ability of communities and industries to recover from shocks. Jamaica's proactive tourism resilience framework serves as an example of such strategies to restore traveler confidence and diversify tourism offerings following disasters.
  • Trip.com: A major online travel agency that has implemented innovative employee policies, including an expansion of its global childcare leave, reflecting a broader trend in the industry to focus on employee welfare to enhance service quality and customer satisfaction amidst ongoing recovery efforts.
  • Disaster Impact: The effects of natural disasters on communities, economies, and systems, which often include loss of life, damage to property, and disruptions to services. The earthquakes experienced in Southeast Asia exemplify the extensive disaster impact on tourism and economic stability in affected regions.
  • Adaptation: The process of adjusting strategies and practices in response to changing conditions. This concept is crucial in the context of the tourism industry as it seeks to navigate the evolving landscape shaped by recent seismic events and shifting traveler preferences.

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