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Geopolitical Shifts in Southeast Asia

General Report November 19, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Malaysia's Strategic Positioning within ASEAN
  3. Vietnam's Balancing Act: Relations with China and the U.S.
  4. Escalating Tensions in the South China Sea
  5. Regional Responses and International Involvement
  6. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • Recent developments in Southeast Asia highlight the complex geopolitical dynamics shaping the region, involving key players like Malaysia, Vietnam, China, and the Philippines. Malaysia is gearing up to assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2025, presenting an opportunity to leverage ASEAN centrality amidst geopolitical threats. Despite its diplomatic tilt towards China and Russia, Malaysia continues to strengthen its economic ties with the United States, European Union, and Japan. Meanwhile, Vietnam is navigating its relationships with China and the U.S. by balancing its diplomatic engagements, as seen through its newly appointed leader, To Lam's first overseas visit to China. This move underscores the importance of maintaining strong ties with China, while also pursuing strategic partnerships with the U.S. and Japan to counterbalance China's burgeoning influence. The South China Sea remains a hotspot for tension, particularly between China and the Philippines, characterized by incidents such as the collision of coast guard ships near Sabina Shoal and China's assertive territorial claims. The U.S., Japan, and Australia have offered diplomatic support to the Philippines, emphasizing the regional and global stakes involved in these maritime disputes.

2. Malaysia's Strategic Positioning within ASEAN

  • 2-1. Malaysia's leadership role as ASEAN chair in 2025

  • As noted in the document titled 'Malaysia needs ASEAN to navigate a pathway between ‘the West’ and ‘the rest’, Malaysia is set to assume the role of ASEAN chair in 2025. This position presents a critical opportunity for Malaysia to exercise leadership amid growing geopolitical threats that impact regional stability and prosperity. The primary task for Malaysia will be to leverage ASEAN centrality to enhance the region's influence and maintain developmental momentum.

  • 2-2. Diplomatic tilt towards China and Russia

  • The document highlights concerns regarding Malaysia's diplomacy, which seems to have shifted toward China and, more recently, Russia. During a visit by Chinese Premier Li Qiang in June 2024, Malaysia expressed reaffirmation of its support for China’s Belt and Road Initiative and also welcomed China's application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Additionally, in July, Malaysia applied to join the BRICS bloc, indicating a deeper engagement with Russia, which could be perceived as a tilt away from the West.

  • 2-3. Malaysia's commitment to regional cooperation and trade

  • Despite the diplomatic shift, Malaysia maintains significant economic ties with other major powers, including the United States, the European Union, and Japan. US investments in Malaysia rose to USD 13.2 billion in 2022, a 4.6% increase from 2021. Furthermore, Malaysia participates in the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) and works on regional agreements such as the CPTPP and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). These engagements underscore Malaysia's commitment to fostering regional cooperation and trade while navigating complex international dynamics.

3. Vietnam's Balancing Act: Relations with China and the U.S.

  • 3-1. To Lam's First Overseas Visit to China

  • Vietnam's newly appointed leader, To Lam, made China the destination for his first overseas visit shortly after taking office, indicating the significance of this bilateral relationship. This visit occurred in Guangzhou, a crucial industrial and export hub, where Lam engaged in discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other officials. Lam's three-day visit comes only two weeks after his appointment as general secretary of Vietnam's Communist Party, following the passing of his predecessor, Nguyen Phu Trong. An analysis from Yu Xiangdong, a director at the Institute for Vietnam Studies in China, suggested that this choice reflects Vietnam's acknowledgment of the importance of its ties with China while continuing its strategy of balancing relationships with the United States and other nations, including Russia. The relationship is further complicated by Vietnam's disputes with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

  • 3-2. Vietnam's Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with the U.S. and Japan

  • In 2023, Vietnam successfully upgraded its diplomatic relationships with the United States and Japan to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest designation for diplomatic relations in the country. This elevation in ties reflects a mutual interest between Vietnam and these nations in counterbalancing China's rising influence in the region. The United States and Japan have increasingly fostered closer ties with Vietnam, a former foe during the Vietnam War, as they seek to strengthen economic and strategic alliances amidst growing tensions with China. This development is part of Vietnam's broader foreign policy strategy to maintain balanced relationships with key global powers while leveraging its position in regional security dynamics.

  • 3-3. Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea

  • The South China Sea remains a contentious arena, characterized by ongoing disputes among Vietnam, China, and the Philippines, among others. Recent incidents highlight escalating tensions, particularly a collision between Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships near Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands, where each country blamed the other for the confrontation. The Philippines accused Chinese vessels of aggressive maneuvers, while China asserted its claims over the territory and cited 'indisputable sovereignty' over the Spratly Islands. Concurrently, Vietnamese coast guard vessels have participated in joint exercises with the Philippines, signaling alignment with regional partners against China's assertive claims. These disputes reflect the complex dynamics of Vietnam's navigation between collaboration with the United States and Japan, while managing its longstanding yet contentious relationship with China.

4. Escalating Tensions in the South China Sea

  • 4-1. Incident of Chinese and Philippine ships colliding

  • On a recent early Monday, Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships collided near Sabina Shoal, a disputed area in the Spratly Islands, causing damage to at least two vessels. Each country blamed the other for the incident. The Chinese coast guard accused the Philippines of deliberately crashing into its vessel, while Philippine officials claimed the Chinese were responsible for the collision, as verified by journalists present at the scene. The Philippine coast guard reported significant structural damage to its ships, with one vessel suffering a hole measuring 1.1 meters and the other being hit multiple times, resulting in a hole 3 feet wide and additional damages.

  • 4-2. Philippines’ diplomatic protests against Chinese actions

  • In response to escalating tensions, the Philippine government formally filed a diplomatic protest against China for provocative actions, including an incident involving Chinese jets firing flares in the path of a Philippine Air Force patrol plane over Scarborough Shoal. This marked the first aerial confrontation since tensions escalated in the region. Philippine military officials condemned these actions as reckless and dangerous, emphasizing the potential risks to aviation safety. The government has called on China to cease all provocative acts that threaten regional peace and safety.

  • 4-3. The role of U.S. military commitments to the Philippines

  • The United States expressed its commitment to the Philippines amidst the growing confrontations with China. U.S. representatives have condemned China's actions in the disputed waters and reaffirmed their obligation to defend the Philippines, as they are treaty allies. This commitment includes possible military support in case Filipino vessels or aircraft are attacked, emphasizing the strategic importance of the U.S.-Philippine alliance in maintaining regional stability in the face of increasing Chinese assertiveness.

5. Regional Responses and International Involvement

  • 5-1. The U.S. stance on the South China Sea disputes

  • The United States has expressed a strong stance regarding the tensions in the South China Sea. As articulated in the report, a long-running dispute between China and the Philippines over uninhabited reefs has escalated, potentially drawing the U.S. into conflict due to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. The U.S. has condemned China’s actions, describing them as 'escalatory and irresponsible,' and has reiterated its military commitments, including the defense of the Philippines against any attacks in this region. The South China Sea is strategically vital, with about one-third of global shipping transiting its waters, alongside significant fishing grounds and vast oil and gas reserves. In recent incidents, the Philippine military reported provocative actions by Chinese aircraft, marking a shift in complaints towards aerial incursions. Key locations such as the Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal have emerged as flashpoints, with the Philippines maintaining a military presence and engaging in resupply missions despite Chinese objections.

  • 5-2. Japan and Australia’s growing military ties with the Philippines

  • The report highlights the increasing military collaboration between Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, which is a response to the rising tensions in the region. The Philippines is deepening its security ties with these nations as it seeks greater international support against Chinese maritime claims. Significant developments included a pledge of $500 million in military aid from the U.S. during diplomatic visits by key officials, underscoring the importance of international partnerships. This growing military collaboration intends to bolster the Philippines' defense capabilities and ensure its sovereignty in the contested South China Sea area.

  • 5-3. The implications of China’s assertive maritime claims

  • China's assertive maritime claims in the South China Sea have significant implications for regional stability and international relations. The report elaborates on various confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels, especially around strategic points like the Second Thomas Shoal, where tense interactions have led to accusations of illegal intrusions and the use of force by China's coast guard. These developments have resulted in diplomatic protests from the Philippines against China’s claims. The Philippine Coast Guard emphasized its right to operate in these disputed waters, asserting its sovereignty amid Beijing's objections. The backdrop of these maritime disputes raises concerns about the potential for armed conflict in a region already strained by geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

  • The report underscores the intricate geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia, emphasizing how entities like ASEAN play a pivotal role. Malaysia's strategic position as a future ASEAN chair offers a platform to influence regional stability and prosperity amidst evolving threats. Vietnam’s diplomatic actions reflect a delicate balance, attempting to foster relationships with both China and the U.S., essential for maintaining regional security dynamics. In the South China Sea, ongoing territorial disputes involving China, the Philippines, and Vietnam challenge regional stability, with the involvement of powers like the U.S. proving crucial due to defense treaties and geopolitical interests. The Belt and Road Initiative highlights China's expanding influence, making it imperative for regional actors to engage in dialogue under international law to avert escalations. Limitations of the report, such as not addressing internal political shifts within these countries, suggest areas for further exploration. Future prospects involve increased diplomatic endeavors and the strengthening of alliances to navigate the geopolitical challenges posed by developments in the South China Sea and broader regional dynamics.

Glossary

  • ASEAN [Regional Organization]: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organization comprising ten Southeast Asian countries. It plays a crucial role in promoting regional stability, economic growth, and cooperation among member states.
  • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [Economic Initiative]: China's Belt and Road Initiative is a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government involving infrastructure development and investments in countries across Asia, Europe, and beyond, aimed at enhancing regional connectivity and economic integration.
  • South China Sea [Geopolitical Region]: The South China Sea is a strategic maritime region with significant geopolitical tensions due to overlapping territorial claims from multiple nations, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. It is vital for global trade, fishing, and potential oil and gas reserves.

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