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South Korea's 2024 General Election: Outcomes, Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications

GOOVER DAILY REPORT October 2, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Election Results and Political Landscape
  3. Domestic Policy Implications
  4. Foreign Policy Implications
  5. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'South Korea's 2024 General Election: Outcomes, Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications' provides a comprehensive analysis of the election results and their ramifications for domestic and international policies. The Democratic Party (DP) achieved a significant victory, securing 175 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) only managed 108 seats. This shift in the political landscape highlights a response to public dissatisfaction with President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration, particularly concerning economic and governance issues. Additionally, the report covers voter turnout, the rise of new political parties such as the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), and the implications for South Korea's foreign relations, especially with the U.S., China, and Japan.

2. Election Results and Political Landscape

  • 2-1. Democratic Party's Victory

  • In the South Korea's 22nd general election held on April 10, 2024, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) achieved a significant victory, capturing a total of 175 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly. This marked a clear majority over the ruling People Power Party (PPP), which secured only 108 seats. The DP's performance represented a response to the electorate's desire for a counterbalance to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government amid rising concerns over domestic issues such as cost of living and economic management.

  • 2-2. People Power Party's Performance

  • The People Power Party (PPP), the ruling party of President Yoon Suk Yeol, received mixed results during the election despite adding five seats from the previous assembly. The party failed to reach the desired threshold of 110 seats, which would have mitigated the impact of the opposition's gains. The PPP's major accomplishments came from securing 90 seats in single-member districts and 18 seats through semi-proportional representation, albeit insufficient to regain legislative control.

  • 2-3. Voter Turnout and Public Sentiment

  • Voter engagement in the 2024 election was notable, with a turnout rate reaching 67%, the highest level in 32 years. This surge was attributed to a highly competitive election environment and the proliferation of new parties, which stirred public interest. Despite the high turnout reportedly favoring the conservatives, the majority of undecided voters and independent voters leaned towards opposition choices, ultimately reflecting dissatisfaction with the current administration.

  • 2-4. New and Emerging Parties

  • The emergence of new political entities, such as the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, played a significant role in altering the electoral landscape. The RKP's participation energized the electorate, particularly among younger and moderate voters, and contributed to the higher turnout. The party managed to secure 12 seats solely through proportional representation, positioning itself as a key player in future legislative dynamics.

3. Domestic Policy Implications

  • 3-1. Challenges for President Yoon's Administration

  • The recent 2024 general election in South Korea resulted in significant challenges for President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration. The Democratic Party (DP) emerged with a majority of 175 seats in the National Assembly, leaving the ruling People Power Party (PPP) with only 108 seats. This outcome is viewed as a referendum on the current administration's policies and indicates a continued strained relationship between President Yoon and the legislative body, which is predominantly controlled by the DP. The election serves as a critical juncture for President Yoon, who has previously struggled to pass legislation, with only 29.2% of bills enacted since his inauguration, far below the 61.4% passage rate of the previous administration. The DP's majority may embolden them to initiate investigations into perceived governance issues within Yoon's administration.

  • 3-2. Impact on Domestic Policy

  • The election results suggest that President Yoon's domestic policy agenda will face considerable obstacles moving forward. Key initiatives, such as increasing housing supply and relaxing restrictions on greenbelt areas, may now be hindered by the opposition’s majority in the National Assembly. The electoral outcome also reflects discontent with existing policies, particularly in areas like welfare and economic management, which have been major points of criticism against the Yoon administration. Consequently, the incoming legislative dynamic is expected to complicate the advancement of Yoon's proposed policies, which have already been described as 'populist' by his opponents.

  • 3-3. Partisan Polarization

  • The 2024 general election has intensified political polarization in South Korea. With the majority controlled by the opposition, key figures such as Lee Jae-myung of the DP have signaled a potential shift towards more aggressive legislative tactics against President Yoon's administration. The outcome has also reinforced the divide between the ruling and opposition parties, which may lead to heightened conflict as both sides navigate governance. Notably, the election saw the rise of the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), which potentially holds pivotal influence due to its 12 seats, further complicating the legislative landscape. Overall, the election results underscore an increasingly contentious political environment, characterized by a deepening rift along partisan lines.

4. Foreign Policy Implications

  • 4-1. U.S.-South Korea Alliance

  • The 2024 general election in South Korea resulted in a majority for the Democratic Party (DP), impacting President Yoon Suk Yeol's executive power significantly. Despite this shift, Yoon's administration is likely to continue strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance, as stated in prior documents. Since the beginning of his presidency, Yoon has pursued a foreign policy aimed at close alignment with the United States, particularly in response to North Korean provocations. Furthermore, Yoon has participated in multilateral gatherings, including the NATO Summit and the Trilateral Leaders’ Summit at Camp David with leaders from Japan, indicating a commitment to defense collaborations and regional security strategies. This proactive approach might endure despite potential growing criticisms from the opposition regarding the practicality of such alliances.

  • 4-2. Relations with China and Japan

  • Following the election, the conservative People Power Party (PPP) maintained a minority status, indicating that President Yoon Suk Yeol's approach to China and Japan could see subtle shifts but is unlikely to undergo a complete overhaul. The DP's position, favoring economic collaboration with China, may lead to thawing relations compared to the cool stance adopted by Yoon previously. In particular, Yoon's administration has prioritized minimizing economic dependence on China while enhancing ties with the U.S. This change underlines a diplomatic balancing act as Yoon navigates a path between economic cooperation with Beijing and security alignments with Washington. The electoral outcome may encourage the DP to advocate for more favorable terms regarding bilateral ties with China, particularly concerning North Korean dialogue.

  • 4-3. North Korea Dynamics

  • The dynamics with North Korea are poised to be contentious in light of the recent election results. Yoon Suk Yeol's administration, which has historically adopted a hardline stance towards North Korea, faces challenges in implementing its policy agenda in the assembly where the opposition party holds a significant majority. The Democratic Party has previously shown a tendency to emphasize diplomatic engagement with North Korea, potentially leading to debates over the administration's approach. Observations indicate that the opposition might utilize its majority to challenge Yoon's hardline policies, which could affect future North-South relations, particularly if the DP leverages its position to advocate for more conciliatory measures toward Pyongyang.

5. Conclusion

  • The 2024 general election results in South Korea have ushered in a challenging era for President Yoon Suk Yeol, with the Democratic Party's majority potentially obstructing his domestic policy agenda. This new political configuration underscores the electorate's demand for change and poses significant hurdles for the administration's legislative ambitions. Internationally, the findings indicate that while the U.S.-South Korea alliance is expected to remain a cornerstone of foreign policy, relations with China may see a thaw if the DP pushes for economic collaboration. The handling of North Korea will likely be contentious, with the opposition advocating a more diplomatic engagement. The report also notes limitations, such as potential bias from heightened partisan perspectives and the rapidly changing political context. Future developments might include evolving party strategies and policy negotiations, emphasizing a need for adaptive and nuanced governance approaches. Practically, stakeholders should be prepared for a more polarized and dynamic political environment, which could influence South Korea's domestic stability and its role on the global stage.

6. Glossary

  • 6-1. Democratic Party (DP) [Political Party]

  • The Democratic Party achieved a significant victory in the 2024 general election, securing 175 out of 300 National Assembly seats. This outcome reflects public dissatisfaction with the ruling People Power Party and poses challenges for President Yoon's administration.

  • 6-2. People Power Party (PPP) [Political Party]

  • The ruling People Power Party secured 108 seats in the 2024 general election, indicating a decrease in public support amidst rising prices and welfare issues. This loss complicates President Yoon's ability to pass domestic policies.

  • 6-3. President Yoon Suk Yeol [Person]

  • Current President of South Korea facing increased challenges due to the Democratic Party's majority in the National Assembly, impacting his domestic and foreign policy agendas.

  • 6-4. U.S.-South Korea Alliance [International Relations]

  • A critical aspect of South Korea's foreign policy, focusing on strengthening ties amidst political changes. President Yoon aims to maintain this alliance despite domestic political complications.

  • 6-5. North Korea [Country]

  • A central point in South Korea's foreign policy, particularly concerning military advancements and relations with Russia and China. The election results will influence South Korea's approach to North Korea.

7. Source Documents