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South Korea’s 2024 Election Impact

GOOVER DAILY REPORT September 20, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Election Results and Voter Turnout
  3. Impact on Domestic Policy
  4. Foreign Policy Implications
  5. Political Landscape and Party Dynamics
  6. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report delves into the outcomes of the South Korea’s 2024 General Elections held on April 10. The Democratic Party (DP) emerged victorious securing 175 seats in the National Assembly, while the ruling People’s Power Party (PPP) managed 108 seats, with the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) obtaining 12 seats. Voter turnout was significantly high at 67%, signaling strong public engagement. The findings touch upon the implications of the DP's majority on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s domestic policies, including potential legislative blockades and increased resistance to his government’s economic initiatives. Additionally, the report explores the anticipated shifts in foreign policy, particularly in relation to China and the United States, and the broader geopolitical implications.

2. Election Results and Voter Turnout

  • 2-1. Overview of the election results.

  • The South Korean 2024 General Elections, held on April 10, marked a significant political event where the Democratic Party (DP) emerged victorious. The party secured a total of 175 seats in the National Assembly, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) garnered 108 seats, and the newly formed Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) captured 12 seats. This election resulted in a voter turnout of 67%, the highest recorded in 32 years, indicating substantial public engagement with the political process.

  • 2-2. High voter turnout and its implications.

  • The voter turnout of 67% in this election represented an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous election in 2020. Factors contributing to the high participation included competitive races and the introduction of the RKP, which mobilized undecided voters. The significance of this turnout suggests a strong public interest in the electoral process and a reaction against the governing administration's performance, particularly in addressing economic concerns, including rising prices and welfare critiques.

  • 2-3. Comparison of party performances.

  • In the 2024 General Elections, the Democratic Party (DP) performed strongly, winning 175 seats by dominating in 161 districts and adding 14 seats through proportional representation, while the People Power Party (PPP) managed to secure only 108 seats, which included 90 from single-member districts and 18 from proportional representation. The electoral edge for the DP indicated a clear preference among the electorate for opposition candidates as a counterbalance to the ruling party. Additionally, the rise of the RKP, securing 12 seats, underscores the impact of new party dynamics on traditional voter behavior.

3. Impact on Domestic Policy

  • 3-1. Legislative challenges faced by President Yoon.

  • The Democratic Party (DP) emerged victorious in South Korea’s 2024 General Elections, winning 175 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) secured 108 seats. This election result indicates a significant challenge for President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration, as the DP's majority suggests continued legislative opposition to Yoon's domestic policies. Since his inauguration, Yoon's domestic policies have faced strong resistance from the National Assembly, which is predominantly controlled by the opposition. As of January 2024, only 29.2 percent of the bills proposed by Yoon's administration had been enacted, starkly contrasting with the 61.4 percent passage rate of the previous government. With the DP and the more progressive Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) now working together, legislative maneuvering against Yoon's policies is expected to intensify.

  • 3-2. Public sentiment towards the current administration.

  • The voter turnout for the election was recorded at 67 percent, the highest in 32 years, reflecting strong public engagement in the electoral process. The election was perceived as a referendum on President Yoon's policies and administration. Notably, despite the government's attempts to stabilize the economy, issues such as rising food prices and criticisms regarding the welfare system significantly influenced the electorate's mindset. The outcome suggests a lack of confidence among South Korean voters towards the current administration, emphasizing public dissatisfaction with the government's handling of key issues.

  • 3-3. Potential roadblocks for policy implementation.

  • The victory of the opposition in the 2024 elections presents considerable roadblocks for President Yoon's policy implementation. The newly formed National Assembly, with a strong DP presence, could hinder initiatives previously outlined by Yoon, such as increasing housing supply and major infrastructure projects. Although Yoon's administration may have temporarily enjoyed some popularity due to certain policy proposals, the electoral outcome indicates a likely escalation of political maneuvers by the opposition, potentially including impeachment proceedings against key administration figures. Furthermore, the outcome may complicate relationships with legislative supporters needed to advance critical policies, indicating a return to heightened partisanship in South Korea's political landscape.

4. Foreign Policy Implications

  • 4-1. Relations with China under the DP majority.

  • The Democratic Party (DP) secured 175 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly during the 2024 General Elections, leading to anticipation of shifts in relations with China. The DP's majority position suggests a potential thawing of previously strained bilateral relations with China, which were characterized by President Yoon’s administration focusing on aligning with the United States while pursuing economic independence from China. The DP has shown a tendency towards increasing economic cooperation with China, which aligns with public sentiment favoring engagement over isolation. President Yoon's administration, despite its conservative leanings, has maintained open channels for dialogue, aiming to balance its security policies aligned with the US against economic ties with China. The Chinese government has responded favorably to the DP's win, viewing it as an opportunity to deepen economic relations amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

  • 4-2. Impact on trilateral relations between the US, South Korea, and Japan.

  • The election results may complicate the trilateral relationship between the United States, South Korea, and Japan, which has been a cornerstone of President Yoon's foreign policy agenda. The DP's opposition to some of the policies pursued by Yoon's administration, particularly those emphasizing stronger alignment with the US, suggests that future engagement in trilateral initiatives may face increased scrutiny and resistance. The established framework of security cooperation, initially strengthened through summits such as the Camp David meeting, might be challenged as the DP seeks to balance domestic legislative priorities with international commitments. This could lead to a reassessment of South Korea's role within the region and its cooperative stance with the US and Japan in light of fresh electoral mandates that emphasize dialogue and negotiation.

  • 4-3. Effects on economic and security policies.

  • The DP's majority status signals potential changes in South Korea's economic policies, particularly concerning its approach towards China. Under Yoon's administration, measures were taken to reduce economic dependency on China, seen through initiatives like the '3050 Strategy Initiative' aimed at diversifying supply chains. However, with the DP in power, there might be an increased focus on fostering bilateral economic relations, which can alter the trajectory of South Korean economic policy. On the security front, the polarization of domestic politics may lead to legislative challenges in ratifying security agreements, potentially hampering the administration's flexibility in responding to geopolitical threats. The interplay between domestic political dynamics and foreign policy execution will be crucial in determining South Korea's future diplomatic strategies amid rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

5. Political Landscape and Party Dynamics

  • 5-1. Analysis of the fractured political landscape.

  • The outcome of the 2024 South Korean General Elections reflected a fragmented political landscape. The Democratic Party (DP) gained a significant number of seats, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) only added five seats, falling short of a meaningful majority. The opposition coalition's ability to achieve a veto-proof supermajority was hindered, but a crucial factor was the high voter turnout of 67%, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the 2020 elections. This increased participation indicated a competitive election environment.

  • 5-2. The emergence and significance of new political parties.

  • In the 2024 elections, new political parties, particularly the National Innovation or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), emerged as significant players, capturing the attention of undecided voters. The introduction of the RKP energized voter participation, particularly among younger demographics in their 40s and 50s, and those identifying as progressive or moderate. The election dynamics suggested that the RKP absorbed a substantial number of independent votes, complicating the traditional power balance between the major parties.

  • 5-3. Legal challenges involving party leaders.

  • Both the Democratic Party and the National Innovation Party face legal challenges affecting their leadership. DP leader Lee Jae-myung and RKP leader Cho Kuk are currently embroiled in legal issues related to fraud and corruption. These ongoing trials may shape party dynamics moving forward, influencing how the opposition can collaborate and manage their legislative agenda in the National Assembly.

6. Conclusion

  • The 2024 General Elections have profoundly altered South Korea’s political landscape. The Democratic Party (DP) now holds a majority, presenting significant challenges for President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration in pursuing its legislative agenda. The high voter turnout reflects enhanced political engagement but also deepens existing polarization. The DP’s victory could lead to a potential thaw in relations with China, contrasting President Yoon’s prior alignment with US strategies. On the domestic front, the looming legislative opposition may hinder policy implementation, escalating political maneuvering. To navigate these complexities, both the DP and PPP must address legal issues affecting their leadership and possibly reconsider their strategies to maintain political stability and effective governance. Future developments may see heightened political contention and redefined international alliances, emphasizing the significance of this electoral outcome on South Korea's domestic and foreign trajectory.

7. Glossary

  • 7-1. Democratic Party (DP) [Political Party]

  • The opposition party that won the majority in the 2024 General Elections, securing 175 of the 300 seats in the National Assembly. The DP's victory indicates significant public support against President Yoon's administration and will impact both domestic policies and foreign relations.

  • 7-2. People's Power Party (PPP) [Political Party]

  • The ruling party led by President Yoon, which experienced disappointing results in the 2024 General Elections, holding only 108 seats. The PPP’s reduced influence will challenge its legislative agenda and ability to pass reforms.

  • 7-3. President Yoon Suk Yeol [Person]

  • The incumbent President of South Korea, whose administration faces significant opposition from the majority Democratic Party. The election results have complicated his domestic and foreign policy agendas.

  • 7-4. South Korea’s 2024 General Elections [Event]

  • Held on April 10, 2024, these elections determined the composition of the National Assembly. The Democratic Party emerged victorious with a majority, heavily influencing South Korea's political and policy landscape.

8. Source Documents