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Analysis of South Korea’s 2024 General Election Results and Their Domestic and Foreign Implications

GOOVER DAILY REPORT September 19, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Election Results and Voter Turnout
  3. Domestic Implications of Election Results
  4. International Implications
  5. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'Analysis of South Korea’s 2024 General Election Results and Their Domestic and Foreign Implications' explores the outcomes and implications of the recent general elections in South Korea. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) emerged victorious by securing 175 out of 300 seats, whereas the ruling People Power Party (PPP) managed only 108 seats. Additionally, the newly formed Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) captured 12 seats. The report highlights significant themes such as the historically high voter turnout of 67%, the challenges faced by President Yoon Suk Yeol due to a divided legislature, and the impact on domestic policies including housing and economic management. It also delves into the international ramifications, including shifts in foreign policy and relations with major countries like China, the US, and Japan, influenced by the DP's majority in the National Assembly.

2. Election Results and Voter Turnout

  • 2-1. Results of the 2024 General Election

  • The 22nd South Korean general election was held on April 10, 2024, with the opposition Democratic Party (DP) achieving a decisive victory by securing 175 out of the 300 seats in the National Assembly. In contrast, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) maintained a minority status with 108 seats. Additionally, the newly formed Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) captured 12 seats. The election, characterized by a strong preference for opposition candidates, served as an implicit referendum on the sitting President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration. The voter turnout was a significant 67%, the highest in 32 years, indicating robust public engagement and a competitive political atmosphere. The results reflected a response to several pressing issues, including economic concerns and the ruling party's management of price inflation, which drove voters towards the oppositional vote. Despite initial predictions of a sweeping victory for the DP, the actual results highlighted the complexities within voter behavior and the impact of emerging third parties.

  • 2-2. High Voter Turnout

  • The 2024 election achieved a notable voter turnout of 67%, which was an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous election in 2020. This surge in voter participation was attributed to several factors, including a highly competitive race, the presence of newly established parties like the RKP, and a public sentiment driven by economic dissatisfaction. Early voter turnout was recorded at 31.3%, demonstrating strong pre-election engagement. Analysts indicated that the uncertainty regarding the election outcome and the perceived importance of participating in a closely contested environment likely contributed to this high turnout. Noteworthy was the fact that the early voting data suggested a stronger preference for the conservative PPP, contrasting with the final election results that favored the DP, implying that undecided voters may have leaned more towards new options provided by third parties as the election date approached.

3. Domestic Implications of Election Results

  • 3-1. Challenges for President Yoon's Administration

  • The election results pose significant challenges for President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration. The Democratic Party (DP), having won a majority with 175 seats against the ruling People Power Party (PPP) which secured only 108 seats, indicates a strained relationship between the president and the legislature. President Yoon has faced strong opposition from a National Assembly that is predominantly progressive, controlling about 60 percent of the seats. Since January 2024, only 29.2 percent of the bills submitted to the National Assembly have passed, in stark contrast to the 61.4 percent passage rate of the previous administration. The opposition's victory is expected to complicate Yoon's policy initiatives that were already criticized as 'populist.' The DP, alongside the new Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), is likely to leverage issues surrounding the Yoon administration to initiate special probes and potentially increase political maneuvers to undermine his administration, including impeachment proceedings against key figures.

  • 3-2. Impact on Domestic Policies

  • The victory of the opposition signals a probable continuation of legislative gridlock for President Yoon's domestic policy agenda. Key policy initiatives proposed by Yoon, such as increasing housing supply, relaxing greenbelt zone restrictions, and implementing major infrastructure projects, may face significant delays and challenges in the National Assembly. The results of the election also reveal that the electorate's dissatisfaction stemmed from issues like rising prices and a welfare critique of the Yoon administration, undermining his attempts to stabilize the economy. The DP's ambitious plans, now bolstered by the RKP, may leverage perceived issues within the administration for special investigations, impeding Yoon's ability to govern effectively.

  • 3-3. Emergence of the Rebuilding Korea Party

  • The emergence of the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) as a third political force has added a new dynamic to the South Korean political landscape. Led by former justice minister Cho Kuk, the RKP secured 12 seats, making it a potentially influential player in the National Assembly. Its formation indicates a shift in voter support, energizing undecided voters and contributing to the high voter turnout of 67 percent—the highest in 32 years. The RKP could play a pivotal role in legislative actions requiring a three-fifths majority (180 seats), which the DP did not achieve (175 seats). The party's future may hinge on the legal challenges facing Cho Kuk, which could affect its leverage and cohesion within the assembly. Political polarization remains a notable challenge, but the presence of foreign policy experts and knowledgeable individuals within the legislature suggests a capacity for informed debate despite the polarized environment.

4. International Implications

  • 4-1. Impact on South Korea’s Foreign Policy

  • The results of the 2024 South Korean general election have significant implications for the country's foreign policy direction. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) secured a majority in the National Assembly, acquiring 175 out of 300 seats, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) retained only 108 seats. This shift presents a challenge for President Yoon, who now must negotiate with a legislature where nearly 190 members oppose him. Campaign strategies suggesting increased cooperation with China underlined the DP's inclination towards economic collaboration, contrasting with the PPP's historic alliance with the United States. Consequently, while President Yoon is likely to continue his alignment with Washington, a thawing climate in South Korea-China relations may be anticipated due to the DP's majority.

  • 4-2. Relations with China

  • Relations with China may experience a pivot due to the election outcome, with potential shifts towards economic engagement. The DP, which has shown a preference for cooperation with Beijing, may prompt a reconsideration of President Yoon's previous hardline approaches. While Yoon has adopted a strategy of decreasing reliance on China, he maintains channels for dialogue, as indicated by high-level meetings post-election. The Chinese government, perceiving the electoral developments as a chance to enhance bilateral ties, has expressed an eagerness to collaborate economically and politically with Seoul.

  • 4-3. US-South Korea Relations

  • The change in parliamentary majority also impacts US-South Korea relations. Historically, the PPP has been aligned closely with Washington policies, but a majority DP may introduce more negotiation into this relationship. President Yoon's administration is under pressure to balance its commitments to the US—especially relating to security strategies—against a legislature favoring greater economic independence from US policy dictates. This electoral backdrop may complicate Yoon’s ability to solidify the alliance with the US amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

  • 4-4. Japan-South Korea Relations

  • Following the election, the potential for improving Japan-South Korea relations is present, albeit with challenges. The DP's majority might foster a more conciliatory approach towards Japan particularly around historical issues. Increased diplomatic engagement could strengthen trilateral cooperation with both the US and Japan, especially as new initiatives were previously laid during a stabilization period. However, uncertainties due to domestic electoral dynamics in both countries will pose challenges in maintaining this thaw in relations.

5. Conclusion

  • The 2024 general election in South Korea marks a critical juncture in the country's political and strategic landscape. The Democratic Party's (DP) majority presents formidable challenges for President Yoon Suk Yeol in advancing his policy agenda, given the opposition's leverage in the National Assembly. The emergence of the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) adds a new dimension, potentially altering legislative dynamics and future policy decisions. Internationally, the election results signal possible shifts in South Korea's foreign policy, including a more collaborative stance towards China and nuanced negotiations with the US. However, the report acknowledges that these findings are subject to the evolving political climate, emphasizing the importance of continued monitoring. Future prospects suggest a landscape where policy implementation remains contentious, but these electoral outcomes offer a lens to understand South Korea's strategic directions. Practical applicability of these insights underscores the need for adaptive strategies by policymakers and international partners to navigate the forthcoming geopolitical shifts.

6. Glossary

  • 6-1. Democratic Party (DP) [Political Party]

  • The Democratic Party is the main opposition party in South Korea that secured a significant majority in the 2024 general elections. This win reflects public discontent with the ruling government and impacts legislative dynamics and policy-making.

  • 6-2. People Power Party (PPP) [Political Party]

  • The ruling conservative party in South Korea which, in the 2024 general election, retained 108 seats. Despite high voter turnout, the PPP fell short of a majority, presenting challenges to President Yoon's administration.

  • 6-3. Yoon Suk Yeol [Person]

  • The President of South Korea, whose administration struggled to gain additional seats in the 2024 general election. Facing a divided legislature, Yoon encounters obstacles in advancing his policy agenda.

  • 6-4. Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) [Political Party]

  • A newly formed party that emerged during the 2024 general election, energizing undecided voters and playing a critical role in the political landscape. Its influence may affect future policy decisions and party dynamics.

7. Source Documents