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Analyzing the 2024 South Korean General Election: Impacts and Implications

GOOVER DAILY REPORT September 16, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Election Results and Voter Turnout
  3. Implications for Domestic Policy
  4. Foreign Policy Dynamics
  5. New Political Players and Their Roles
  6. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'Analyzing the 2024 South Korean General Election: Impacts and Implications' examines the outcomes and ramifications of the recent election. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) achieved a significant victory by securing 175 out of 300 National Assembly seats, signaling public dissatisfaction with President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration and heralding legislative challenges. The ruling People Power Party (PPP) obtained 108 seats, marking a setback. Voter turnout hit a notable 67%, reflecting the election's competitive nature. The report also covers the impact on domestic and foreign policy, highlighting President Yoon's focus on relations with the US, Japan, and China, and the emergence of the National Innovation or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), which captured attention with its accountability stance.

2. Election Results and Voter Turnout

  • 2-1. Democratic Party's victory with 175 seats

  • In the 2024 South Korean general election, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) achieved a significant victory by securing 175 out of the 300 seats in the National Assembly. This outcome is indicative of a public shift in favor of the opposition, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration. The DP's successes were supplemented by gaining 14 additional seats through its satellite party, the Democratic Coalition, which participated in nationwide proportional representation voting. The election results underscore the electorate's desire for a counterbalance to the current government.

  • 2-2. People Power Party's 108 seats

  • The ruling People Power Party (PPP) managed to secure 108 seats in the National Assembly during the 2024 elections. Despite having received predictions that indicated a larger loss, the PPP's performance was seen as a disappointing result for the party, falling short of their target of maintaining over 110 seats. The lack of significant gains resulted in the PPP holding onto its minority status and facing challenges in legislative processes, as the opposition coalition now possesses the ability to impede the administration's legislative agenda.

  • 2-3. High voter turnout of 67%

  • Voter turnout for the 2024 South Korean general election was recorded at 67 percent, marking the highest participation rate in over three decades. This turnout indicates a highly competitive election environment and highlights the electorate's engagement with the political process, fueled by rising political polarization in South Korea. Early voting accounted for a significant portion of total participation, with early ballots reflecting a strong interest in the election outcome amidst a climate of uncertainty regarding candidates and policies.

3. Implications for Domestic Policy

  • 3-1. Legislative challenges for President Yoon

  • The election results signify that President Yoon Suk Yeol will face considerable legislative challenges in the National Assembly, which is now largely controlled by the opposition Democratic Party (DP). The DP's victory, securing 175 out of 300 seats, results in a divided government that will likely complicate the passage of President Yoon's proposed domestic policies. Since his administration began, President Yoon's efforts to advance key legislation have already been hindered by a progressive opposition, which accounted for about 60 percent of the seats prior to the election. The opposition's stronghold implies that less than 30 percent of the bills submitted during Yoon's tenure have passed, a significant drop compared to the previous government's rates.

  • 3-2. Public disapproval reflected in election results

  • The overwhelming victory of the opposition in the 2024 election is indicative of public dissatisfaction with President Yoon's administration. Issues such as rising prices of essential goods and perceived shortcomings in government welfare policies have disillusioned voters. The electorate's preference for opposition candidates also reflects an implicit referendum on President Yoon’s leadership, positioning the election as a commentary on his administration's performance, specifically regarding domestic affairs and public welfare.

  • 3-3. Impact of political polarization

  • Political polarization in South Korea was amplified during this election, demonstrated by the significant voter turnout of 67%, the highest in 32 years. The election saw a shift in voter support dynamics, with an increasing number of independent voters influenced by third-party candidates such as the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP). This polarization also suggests that the opposition parties will need to negotiate effectively among themselves to unite against the incumbent's policies while also provoking critical questioning of the administration's actions. The potential for contentious inter-party relations indicates a challenging political landscape moving forward.

4. Foreign Policy Dynamics

  • 4-1. President Yoon’s focus on US and Japan relations

  • President Yoon has maintained a strong emphasis on the alignment of South Korea's foreign policy with that of the United States and Japan. This focus has intensified following the recent elections, as the ruling People Power Party (PPP) now finds itself in a minority position within the National Assembly with a reduced number of seats, leading to greater scrutiny of the President's legislative agenda. The trilateral relationship involving the US, South Korea, and Japan gained traction during Yoon's presidency, particularly highlighted by the Camp David Summit in August 2023. However, the recent election outcomes indicate challenges ahead in sustaining this foreign policy trajectory amidst intensified opposition critiques.

  • 4-2. Potential influence of China on South Korea

  • The election results have also implications regarding South Korea's relationship with China. Despite President Yoon’s administration aiming to decrease economic dependence on China—indicated by initiatives such as the 'Chip4' alliance and the '3050 Strategy Initiative'—the newly strengthened Democratic Party holds a majority in the National Assembly and may advocate for improved economic ties with China. The likelihood of thawing relations comes amid China's demonstrated willingness to engage with South Korea, as indicated by their statement welcoming South Korea's election results and expressing intent for collaboration.

  • 4-3. Ongoing geopolitical factors affecting foreign policy

  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to shape South Korea's foreign policy direction. Following the recent elections, President Yoon's administration must navigate challenges related to public sentiment towards domestic economic issues while managing strategic relations with global powers such as the US, Japan, and China. Historical context shows that as President Yoon aligns more closely with Western security policies, reactions from Beijing might prompt a recalibration of South Korea's diplomatic approach. The emphasis on economic cooperation with China, especially by the opposition-controlled National Assembly, poses a dilemma for the Yoon administration, which has heavily invested in strengthening ties with the US and Japan amid rising tensions in the region.

5. New Political Players and Their Roles

  • 5-1. Emergence of the National Innovation or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP)

  • The National Innovation or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) emerged prominently in the 2024 South Korean general election. This new political entity, led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, capitalized on the political landscape characterized by voter dissatisfaction with established parties. The RKP made headlines immediately post-election by demanding an investigation into the First Lady, highlighting its commitment to accountability and transparency. The emergence of the RKP energized many undecided voters, particularly those in their 40s and 50s, who showed disproportionate support for the party. This represents a shift in voter dynamics and indicates the potential influence of new parties on South Korean politics.

  • 5-2. Effectiveness of opposition parties’ collaboration

  • The collaboration among opposition parties, particularly between the Democratic Party (DP) and the RKP, has significant implications for South Korea's political landscape following the 2024 elections. Their ability to unite effectively will play a crucial role in constraining President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration. The initial interactions suggest that while there is a willingness to coordinate efforts, underlying tensions exist, particularly concerning leadership and campaign promises. The dynamic of cooperation is crucial, especially as both parties face challenges related to legal issues surrounding their leaders. Their collaboration will determine the extent to which they can influence legislation and challenge the current government's agenda moving forward.

6. Conclusion

  • The 2024 South Korean general election has profoundly altered the political framework, substantially challenging President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration due to the significant gains by the Democratic Party (DP). Public disenchantment with current domestic policies and high voter turnout underscore deep political polarization. On the foreign policy front, Yoon must astutely balance relations with the US, Japan, and China amid evolving geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the emergence of the National Innovation or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) presents additional complexity to the political landscape. Future prospects suggest heightened political negotiations and potential shifts in legislative processes. The findings underscore South Korea's dynamic political environment, marked by significant domestic and international implications that will shape the country's governance and strategic orientations in the coming years.

7. Glossary

  • 7-1. Democratic Party (DP) [Political party]

  • The Democratic Party of South Korea won 175 out of 300 seats in the 2024 general election. This victory reflects public disapproval of the ruling administration and poses legislative challenges for President Yoon Suk Yeol.

  • 7-2. People Power Party (PPP) [Political party]

  • The ruling People Power Party secured 108 seats in the 2024 general election. The election results indicate decreased public confidence in the current administration's handling of domestic issues.

  • 7-3. Yoon Suk Yeol [Person]

  • President of South Korea whose administration faces significant legislative challenges following the 2024 general election. His foreign policy emphasizes strong ties with the US and Japan.

  • 7-4. National Innovation or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) [Political party]

  • A new opposition party that emerged in the 2024 general election, reflecting the evolving political landscape in South Korea.

8. Source Documents