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Tracking OpenAI's Progress Toward Human-Level Artificial Intelligence

GOOVER DAILY REPORT August 10, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. OpenAI's Classification System for AI Development
  3. Development of Next-Gen AI Models
  4. Launch and Performance of GPT-4o Mini
  5. Capabilities and Limitations of GPT-4
  6. OpenAI's Plan for Achieving AGI
  7. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'Tracking OpenAI's Progress Toward Human-Level Artificial Intelligence' provides a comprehensive review of OpenAI's efforts to advance AI capabilities, with a focus on achieving human-level intelligence. It highlights OpenAI's five-level classification system designed to track AI development, with Level 1 being Conversational AI and Level 5 representing organizational-level task performance. Currently, OpenAI is at Level 1, characterized by conversational interactions, and is making strides towards Level 2, which involves basic problem-solving capabilities. The report also discusses the development of next-gen models like GPT-5, which is expected to enhance multimodal capabilities and logical reasoning, and the launch of the cost-effective GPT-4o Mini model. Additional sections cover the functionality and limitations of GPT-4, OpenAI's ongoing efforts towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and the company's strategic plans to reach this goal.

2. OpenAI's Classification System for AI Development

  • 2-1. Introduction to the Five-Level Classification System

  • OpenAI has introduced a five-level classification system to track its progress toward developing human-level artificial intelligence. This system was shared with employees during an all-hands meeting and is intended to help people understand OpenAI's approach to AI safety and future developments. The classification ranges from current AI capabilities, known as Level 1, which allows conversational interactions with humans, to Level 5, where AI can perform organizational-level tasks. This system aids in delineating the various stages in AI development as the company works towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

  • 2-2. Current Level: Conversational AI

  • As of now, OpenAI believes it is at Level 1 of its classification system, which it defines as Conversational AI. This level includes AI systems that can engage in conversational language interactions with people, such as the widely known ChatGPT. During the all-hands meeting, OpenAI executives confirmed their current standing and demonstrated research involving its GPT-4 model that showcases some human-like reasoning skills. This is a foundational level where the focus is on creating AI that can understand and generate human language effectively.

  • 2-3. Nearing Level 2: Basic Problem-Solving Capabilities

  • OpenAI is on the cusp of reaching Level 2 in its classification system, referred to as 'Reasoners.' This stage involves developing AI systems that can perform basic problem-solving tasks at a level comparable to a human with a doctorate-level education who does not have access to any tools. The progress towards this level is marked by internal testing and demonstrations of new capabilities, suggesting advancements in the AI’s reasoning abilities. OpenAI is working to refine these skills further as it moves closer to more complex problem-solving AI functionality.

3. Development of Next-Gen AI Models

  • 3-1. Overview of GPT-5 development

  • GPT-5 is in active development, confirmed by OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman. The development of GPT-5 follows the significant advances brought by GPT-4, including multimodal capabilities and sophisticated logical reasoning. The development process for GPT-5 has included showcasing its capabilities to trusted insiders, indicating a mid-2024 release date. The new model is expected to undergo rigorous safety testing before it becomes available to the public.

  • 3-2. Features and enhancements of GPT-5

  • GPT-5 is anticipated to bring several enhancements over GPT-4. These include multimodal capabilities that may add video processing functionalities to the existing speech and image functionalities. Additionally, GPT-5 will focus on improved logical reasoning skills and more truthful and expansive knowledge by increasing the dataset size and variety. This is in response to limitations noted in GPT-4, such as its tendency to hallucinate when faced with obscure subjects. Altman also mentioned potential development towards artificial general intelligence (AGI), although GPT-5 itself may not achieve AGI status.

  • 3-3. Expected impact of GPT-5 on accessibility and task complexity

  • The development and release of GPT-5 are expected to make current models like GPT-4 more accessible and cost-effective. This could lead to broader usage by reducing the high costs associated with the existing models. As a result, more users may leverage ChatGPT for complex tasks such as coding, translation, and research. Early testers of GPT-5 found that it delivers higher-quality responses than its predecessors, suggesting a significant improvement in efficiency and accuracy. However, access to GPT-5 will likely be behind a subscription model similar to the current GPT-4 access.

4. Launch and Performance of GPT-4o Mini

  • 4-1. Cost and Capabilities of GPT-4o Mini

  • OpenAI announced the release of GPT-4o Mini on July 18, 2024. The company promotes this model as their 'most cost-efficient small model.' The pricing details highlight its affordability with 15 cents per million input tokens and 60 cents per million output tokens. Furthermore, GPT-4o Mini boasts an 82% score on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. It surpasses GPT-3.5 Turbo and other small models across academic benchmarks in both textual intelligence and multimodal reasoning. Additionally, it supports the same range of languages as GPT-4o.

  • 4-2. Feedback on Naming Schemes

  • Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, acknowledged the need for a naming scheme revamp for ChatGPT models after receiving feedback on social media. A commenter on his X account (formerly Twitter) suggested the need for a change, to which Altman replied, 'Lol yes we do.' This feedback came in light of the recent announcement of GPT-4o Mini, continuing the same naming convention that OpenAI has used since the development of ChatGPT and its various versions.

  • 4-3. Utilization in Tasks Like Customer Support and Translation

  • The GPT-4o Mini model aims to make artificial intelligence more accessible due to its cost efficiency. It is designed to perform common tasks that are well-recognized in ChatGPT's capabilities, including customer support, translation, and data processing. OpenAI expects that GPT-4o Mini will 'significantly expand the range of applications built with AI by making intelligence much more affordable.'

5. Capabilities and Limitations of GPT-4

  • 5-1. Functions of ChatGPT in various tasks

  • ChatGPT has quickly become a pivotal tool in artificial intelligence, widely utilized for its ability to perform a multitude of tasks. These tasks range from answering questions, telling stories, and writing web code, to conceptualizing complicated topics. Users can leverage ChatGPT for writing essays, Excel formulas, poems, movie scripts, researching topics, summarizing content, building cover letters or CVs, writing code, and even planning holidays. The tool's vast range of capabilities emphasizes its depth of language understanding, allowing it to handle both simple and complex prompts efficiently. Millions of users interact with ChatGPT daily, benefiting from its rapid processing and innovative applications.

  • 5-2. Differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 versions

  • The primary differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 lie in GPT-4's enhanced features and improved performance. GPT-4 increases the number of words that can be processed in an input up to 25,000, which is eight times more than the original GPT-3.5 model. Additionally, OpenAI has upgraded the system to reduce 'hallucinations,' where the AI would previously offer nonsensical answers or input false information. GPT-4 is also better at understanding and generating creative content, demonstrated by its ability to summarize texts using constraints like starting each word with the letter 'g.' Furthermore, GPT-4 introduces multimodal capabilities, such as image recognition, which allows the AI to generate recipes from pictures of ingredients or create a website from a hand-drawn image. These advancements highlight GPT-4's superior ability to handle more extended and diverse inputs compared to GPT-3.5.

  • 5-3. Controversies and limitations in educational settings

  • While ChatGPT has garnered praise for its capabilities, it has also faced significant controversies, particularly in educational settings. The New York City Department of Education has banned the use of ChatGPT across all public school devices and networks, citing concerns over accuracy and the potential for academic dishonesty. Critics argue that the tool could facilitate plagiarism, as students might use it to generate essays or complete assignments without genuine effort. Furthermore, despite its broad knowledge base, ChatGPT has limitations, such as difficulty handling very recent events or extremely niche topics. It also occasionally produces incorrect or misleading information. Some education experts advocate for integrating AI tools like ChatGPT into the curriculum to enhance learning while emphasizing the importance of teaching students about the ethical issues and limitations of such technology.

6. OpenAI's Plan for Achieving AGI

  • 6-1. Outline of the five-step plan to AGI

  • OpenAI has formulated a five-step plan to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The first stage involves 'AI with natural conversation language abilities,' exemplified by models like GPT-3.5 in the initial version of ChatGPT. The second step is the development of 'reasoners,' models capable of human-level problem solving across a broad range of topics. The third phase is the creation of 'agents,' AI models capable of performing tasks independently. The fourth step focuses on AI that can assist in the invention of new ideas, thereby adding to human knowledge. The final phase envisions AI capable of managing entire organizations without human input.

  • 6-2. Current advancements in the development of 'reasoners'

  • As of now, OpenAI is progressing into the second stage of their five-step plan, focusing on developing 'reasoners.' These are AI models designed to problem-solve as effectively as a human with a PhD, albeit without access to a textbook. According to OpenAI's CTO Mira Murati, the next generation model, speculated to be named GPT-5, aims to match the intelligence of someone with a doctorate across diverse fields. The goal of these 'reasoners' is to achieve a baseline IQ level of 100, signifying human-level general problem-solving abilities.

  • 6-3. Anticipated future developments toward AGI

  • While current advancements are promising, OpenAI acknowledges that AGI is still distant. The upcoming step is the development of 'agents,' AI systems capable of performing a range of tasks autonomously. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has hinted that GPT-5 may include agent-based capabilities. Beyond that, future developments expect AI to contribute to human knowledge inventively and eventually manage entire organizations independently. The overall journey toward AGI is ambitious, aiming to create AI that not only matches but outperforms human intelligence across all tasks.

7. Conclusion

  • OpenAI's pursuit of human-level AI, encapsulated in their structured five-level classification system, marks significant strides toward advanced AI functionalities. Key milestones like the development of GPT-5, which focuses on enhanced multimodal capabilities and better logical reasoning, and the cost-efficient GPT-4o Mini, underscore OpenAI's commitment to both innovation and accessibility. However, the journey toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is rife with challenges, including achieving AI that can autonomously and effectively outperform human cognitive tasks. The current progress at Level 1 of AI development reflects a foundational mastery of conversational interactions, with promising advancements towards Level 2 for basic problem-solving abilities. Future prospects include refining existing models for safety and efficiency and expanding the practical applicability of AI in more complex tasks. Limitations, such as the potential for academic dishonesty and handling niche subjects, must be addressed alongside integrating ethical considerations into AI applications. The continual evolution of AI models like GPT-5 sets a promising stage for more groundbreaking AI capabilities and the eventual realization of AGI.

8. Glossary

  • 8-1. OpenAI [Company]

  • OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research lab focused on developing and promoting friendly AI. Their work includes developing advanced AI models such as GPT-3, GPT-4, and the forthcoming GPT-5, aimed at achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

  • 8-2. GPT-4 [Technology]

  • GPT-4 is OpenAI's AI language model, capable of complex inputs and enhanced creativity. It is extensively used in various applications like customer support, coding, and storytelling, and is available in both free and paid versions.

  • 8-3. GPT-5 [Technology]

  • GPT-5 is the next-generation AI model being developed by OpenAI, focusing on enhancing multimodal capabilities and incorporating video processing. It aims to bring AI closer to achieving AGI.

  • 8-4. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [Concept]

  • AGI refers to AI that can understand, learn, and apply intellect across a wide range of tasks at a human level. OpenAI's goal of AGI aims at creating AI that can autonomously perform any intellectual task that a human can do.

9. Source Documents