This report, titled "Russia under Vladimir Putin: Historical Context, Foreign Policy, and Current Conflicts," offers a detailed examination of Russia’s historical development, foreign policy under Vladimir Putin, and ongoing conflicts, particularly with Ukraine. It traces Russia's evolution from the formation of Kievan Rus' through the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, to its present-day status as the Russian Federation. Significant attention is given to Vladimir Putin's rise to power and his regime's domestic and international policies, which are marked by authoritarian practices and assertive foreign engagements. Key issues discussed include NATO expansion, the annexation of Crimea, and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, all of which have resulted in severe humanitarian crises and global sanctions against Russia. Additionally, the report examines Russia's influence in Eurasian politics through foreign agent laws and measures to suppress democratic processes in neighboring countries.
Russia, officially known as the Russian Federation, spans Eastern Europe and North Asia, making it the largest country in the world by area. It extends across eleven time zones and shares land borders with fourteen countries. With a population ranking as the ninth-most populous country globally and the most populous in Europe, Russia is highly urbanized, featuring 16 population centers with over a million inhabitants. Moscow serves as the country's capital and largest city, while Saint Petersburg is recognized as the second-largest city and cultural capital.
The emergence of the East Slavs as a recognized group occurred between the 3rd and 8th centuries CE, leading to the establishment of Kievan Rus', the first East Slavic state, in the 9th century. In 988, Kievan Rus' adopted Orthodox Christianity from the Byzantine Empire. Following its disintegration, the Grand Duchy of Moscow evolved, ultimately becoming the Tsardom of Russia. By the early 18th century, through conquests and annexations, Russia had expanded significantly, forming the Russian Empire, the third-largest empire in history.
The Russian Revolution in 1917 marked the end of monarchic rule, giving rise to the Russian SFSR (Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic), established as the world's first constitutionally socialist state. The subsequent Russian Civil War led to the creation of the Soviet Union, of which the Russian SFSR was the largest constituent. The Soviet Union featured rapid industrialization in the 1930s and played a critical role during World War II. In 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian SFSR was reestablished as the independent Russian Federation under a new federal semi-presidential system.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was born on October 7, 1952, in Leningrad, Soviet Union. His political career began after he resigned from the KGB in 1991, following the Soviet coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev. He joined the administration of Saint Petersburg's mayor Anatoly Sobchak as an advisor on international affairs. In June 1991, he became the head of the Committee for External Relations of the Mayor's Office. Putin subsequently moved to Moscow and held various government roles, ultimately being appointed as the deputy chief of the Presidential Staff in 1997. He first served as Prime Minister under Boris Yeltsin in 1999 before becoming acting President when Yeltsin resigned on December 31, 1999. Putin was officially elected President in 2000 and re-elected in 2004. Due to constitutional term limits, he served as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012 under Dmitry Medvedev, then returned to the presidency in 2012.
Under Vladimir Putin's leadership, the Russian political system has evolved into an authoritarian regime characterized by significant control over various aspects of political life. His administration has been criticized for widespread human rights violations, suppression of political opposition, and a lack of free and fair elections. The regime has also engaged in systematic censorship of independent media, leading to low rankings for Russia in global indices measuring corruption, democracy, and press freedom. Putin's governance style is often described as 'Putinism,' a term reflecting the consolidation of power and use of state resources to maintain political dominance.
Domestically, Putin's policies have included significant military reforms, economic stabilization measures, and a focus on Russia's energy sector, which has seen substantial growth due to increased oil and gas prices. His government has faced criticism for economic mismanagement, especially during times of international sanctions. On the international front, Putin's foreign policy has been marked by assertive military engagement, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014, intervention in Syria, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These actions have led to heightened tensions with NATO and other Western nations, resulting in multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia, which have had severe implications for the country's economy.
The foreign policy of Vladimir Putin has considerably influenced Russia's relations with Western countries and NATO. Since the late 1990s, Russia's relationship with the United States reached a low point, especially after Putin offered asylum to Edward Snowden in 2013, leading to perceived obstruction by Russia in international affairs including Syria and Ukraine. NATO's eastward expansion has often been seen by Russia as a direct threat to its interests, prompting aggressive statements and military maneuvers by the Kremlin. Relations came to be characterized as adversarial following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the subsequent war in Ukraine, with NATO suspending practical cooperation with Russia as a response. Throughout this period, tensions escalated further, with Putin often criticizing U.S. policies and NATO activities in Europe.
Under Putin, there has been a noticeable shift toward strengthening ties with China and other countries, particularly in the wake of deteriorating relations with the West. This shift is characterized by increased military and economic cooperation with China, alongside efforts to forge closer links with countries like India. Central Asia also emerged as a focal point for cultivating influence, as Russia attempted to reassert its dominance over former Soviet states. This strategic pivot has often been described as necessary for countering the perceived isolation and pressure stemming from Western sanctions and geopolitical maneuvers.
Russia's foreign policy under Putin has been marked by several significant military interventions and territorial disputes. Notably, the annexation of Crimea in 2014 exemplified Putin's willingness to use military force to achieve territorial objectives, employing the precedent of Kosovo's secession to justify this act. The ongoing conflict in the Donbas region represents both a military intervention and a broader strategy to destabilize Ukraine and assert Russian dominance. Additionally, Russia's historical disputes with Japan over the Kuril Islands and its activities in the Caucasus and Central Asia further illustrate the aggressive posture taken by Putin's administration in pursuing territorial claims and influence.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is deeply rooted in the historical context following the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, which marked the emergence of Ukraine as an independent state. Russian President Vladimir Putin perceives the collapse of the USSR as a tragedy and has sought to reassert control over former Soviet territories. Key events include the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, both of which were fueled by Ukraine's desire to distance itself from Kremlin influence. The latter event led to the annulment of pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, provoking Russia to annex Crimea and support armed separatism in eastern Ukraine, resulting in significant loss of life.
In response to the 2014 revolution in Ukraine, the Kremlin seized the opportunity to annex Crimea, asserting that it was protecting Russian-speaking citizens. Following a controversial referendum, which the international community largely condemned as illegal, Russia formally annexed the peninsula, claiming 97% of the vote was in favor of joining Russia. This act escalated tensions and subsequently led to the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have clashed with Ukrainian forces.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a multi-front assault from the north, east, and south. Initially, Russian forces captured key cities such as Kherson and pushed into Kyiv's suburbs. However, fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces thwarted these advancements, leading to significant defeats for Russia, including the retreat from Kyiv. Reports of atrocities and widespread destruction emerged as Ukrainian troops regained control in various regions, particularly in Eastern Ukraine.
The humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict has been profound, with thousands of civilians killed and millions displaced. Ukraine, previously a leading exporter of agricultural products, has faced severe challenges due to the war, affecting global food and energy prices. In response to the invasion, the international community, including NATO and the European Union, has imposed extensive sanctions on Russia and pledged military and humanitarian support to Ukraine. The situation continues to evolve with ongoing military operations and diplomatic efforts to mediate peace.
The introduction of so-called 'foreign agent' laws reflects a concerning trend of Russian influence extending beyond its borders, particularly in Eurasian regions. Georgia's foreign agent law, introduced in early 2023, aims to label and restrict activities of organizations receiving foreign funding. This law has faced backlash from civil society groups who view it as a threat to freedom of expression and association. The law's implementation is part of a broader strategy to suppress dissent and control opposition, impacting the fairness of upcoming elections in 2024.
Georgia is not alone in adopting repressive measures similar to Russia's. In April 2024, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov signed a law requiring NGOs receiving foreign funds to register as foreign agents, imposing stringent reporting requirements and jeopardizing civil society operations. Furthermore, Abkhazia's de facto authorities implemented a foreign agent law in October 2023 to strengthen their control. Similar discussions are taking place in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, indicating a broader, possibly coordinated effort by Russia to export authoritarian tactics across the region.
The synchronization and similarity of foreign agent laws across multiple countries suggest a calculated strategy by Russia to undermine democratic norms and civil society. Such laws serve to diminish Western influence and support for democratization efforts, as evidenced by initiatives in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Abkhazia. The broader implications of these developments challenge the resilience of democratic institutions in these regions, necessitating a concerted response from the EU and the international community to support voices advocating for democracy.
The report elucidates the historical and political dynamics shaping Russia under Vladimir Putin, underlining key findings and their implications. The reconstruction of Russia's timeline from Kievan Rus' to the modern Russian Federation offers insight into the deep-rooted influences on its current geopolitical stance. Central to this analysis is Vladimir Putin’s authoritative control over domestic politics and his aggressive foreign policies aimed at countering Western influence and NATO expansion. The annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine highlight these strategies but have resulted in significant global backlash and humanitarian crises. Additionally, the enactment of foreign agent laws in Eurasian regions illustrates Russia’s broader attempts to export authoritarian practices, threatening democratic institutions in multiple countries. The findings point to the necessity of comprehending Russia’s actions against the backdrop of historical grievances and strategic interests. While the report primarily focuses on current conflicts and political maneuvers, limitations include the rapidly evolving nature of these events and the complexities in predicting future developments. Emphasizing international cooperation and support for democratic processes, the report suggests continued vigilance and adaptation in global policies towards Russia, stressing practical applicability in addressing the humanitarian fallout and supporting affected communities.