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Analysis of the 2024 US Presidential Campaign: A Comparative Study of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

GOOVER DAILY REPORT August 18, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Overview of the 2024 US Presidential Campaign
  3. Economic Policies and Proposals
  4. Security Issues and Incidents
  5. State-Level Campaign Strategies
  6. Media and Public Perception
  7. Party Dynamics and Internal Tensions
  8. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report delves into the 2024 US Presidential Campaign, examining the strategies, policies, and public reception of candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The primary focus is on their differing approaches: Trump's aggressive and personality-driven campaign featuring significant economic proposals, and Harris's policy-focused campaign centered on economic reforms and housing affordability. Furthermore, it highlights key campaign events in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where both candidates have concentrated their efforts. The report also details significant security lapses within the Secret Service during Trump's rallies and the role of endorsements and public appearances in shaping voter perceptions. It provides a comprehensive overview of the campaign dynamics, including internal tensions within both campaign teams and the media's portrayal of the candidates.

2. Overview of the 2024 US Presidential Campaign

  • 2-1. Introduction of candidates

  • The 2024 US Presidential Campaign features two prominent candidates: Donald Trump, the former President of the United States representing the Republican Party, and Kamala Harris, the current Vice President of the United States representing the Democratic Party. Both candidates have unique approaches and strategies for their campaigns. Trump is known for his aggressive personal attacks and contentious economic proposals, while Harris focuses primarily on economic reforms and policy-driven strategies.

  • 2-2. Key campaign themes and strategies

  • Donald Trump's campaign themes revolve around attacking Kamala Harris's policies and personal traits. He has made numerous personal attacks, accusing her of incompetence and challenging her racial identity. His approach includes proposing significant tax cuts, tariffs, and other economic measures aimed at lowering consumer prices and stimulating the economy, though these proposals come with potential drawbacks, including deficits and increased consumer costs. On the other hand, Harris's campaign is policy-focused, emphasizing economic reforms aimed at lowering housing and grocery costs, implementing corporate price gouging bans, and providing substantial support for first-time homebuyers. Her economic strategy includes tax breaks for creating new housing units and financial support for local governments to finance housing developments.

  • 2-3. Role of endorsements and public appearances

  • Endorsements play a significant role in the campaign strategies of both candidates. Joe Biden's endorsement of Kamala Harris has been a highlight, solidifying unity within the Democratic Party. Key public appearances include Biden and Harris's joint events, such as their notable rally in the Maryland suburbs, and Harris's speeches emphasizing economic policies. In contrast, Donald Trump has been actively holding rallies in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where he continues to criticize Harris and highlight his economic proposals. These endorsements and public appearances are crucial in shaping public perception and garnering voter support.

3. Economic Policies and Proposals

  • 3-1. Trump's economic agenda

  • Donald Trump's economic priorities during the 2024 US Presidential Campaign include significant tax cuts and proposed tariffs intended to stimulate the economy. Trump has pledged to eliminate federal taxes on tips and is considering removing federal income and payroll taxes on tips, which is estimated to reduce revenue by $150 billion to $250 billion over a decade. Additionally, Trump proposed significant tax relief for senior citizens by eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, which could potentially increase federal deficits by $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion through 2035. His tariff proposals include a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports and higher tariffs on Chinese imports, estimated to cost a typical middle-income household $1,700 a year. Economists warn of potential negative impacts, including the loss of approximately 675,000 jobs and a reduction of GDP by 0.6 percentage points. Despite these risks, Trump argues that such measures will stimulate domestic production and generate revenue.

  • 3-2. Harris's economic reforms

  • Kamala Harris's economic strategy emphasizes policies aimed at reducing everyday expenses for American families. Key components of her economic plan include the creation of 3 million new housing units over four years through tax incentives for homebuilders, significantly surpassing the Biden administration's proposal of 2 million new and renovated homes. Harris also plans to offer up to $25,000 towards down payments for first-time homebuyers, a substantial increase from Biden’s $10,000 tax credit proposal. This initiative is estimated to aid more than 4 million first-time buyers and includes incentives for builders of affordable rental housing. Additionally, Harris has proposed a federal ban on corporate price gouging, particularly in the food sector. This includes stricter investigations and prosecutions of price-fixing and a ban on rental property owners from using algorithms to increase rents. Harris argues that her policies will make housing and groceries more affordable for American families and ensure savings are passed to consumers.

  • 3-3. Impact of policies on public opinion

  • Public reception of Trump and Harris's economic policies has been mixed, deeply influencing voter sentiments in the 2024 US Presidential Campaign. Despite the sweeping nature of Trump's tax cuts and tariff proposals, there is skepticism regarding their feasibility without significantly increasing the national deficit. Voters express concern about the potential economic drawbacks, including potential job losses and increased consumer costs. Surveys and polls indicate a nuanced electorate with divided opinions on Trump’s economic claims and effectiveness. On the other hand, Harris's policy-focused campaign has received positive feedback, particularly for its practical approach to tackling high housing and grocery costs. The Financial Times and University of Michigan poll found that Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in economic trust among voters. Her detailed proposals for economic reform appear to resonate well with voters prioritizing economic stability and practical solutions. However, despite favorable economic indicators under the Biden administration, many voters still feel the economic strain in their daily lives, impacting overall public opinion on both candidates' economic visions.

4. Security Issues and Incidents

  • 4-1. Assassination attempt at Trump's rally

  • It was reported that more than a month ago, a 20-year-old shooter nearly assassinated Donald Trump while he was speaking at a rally, live on national television. The shooter was spotted multiple times by the Secret Service, including Secret Service counter-snipers, before the shooting commenced. Despite clear indicators such as openly carrying an AR-15 and being photographed multiple times, the shooter was not perceived as a threat until he started firing. This incident marked a significant lapse in security measures during Trump's campaign.

  • 4-2. Secret Service lapses and reforms

  • The Secret Service has faced severe scrutiny and embarrassment following the assassination attempt. Subsequent events have also highlighted lapses and misconduct within the agency. A notable incident involved a female Secret Service agent abandoning her post during a Trump rally in North Carolina to breastfeed, and allowed unauthorized individuals to bypass security checkpoints. Further reports reveal that the agent responsible for the security plan during the Butler rally, which was poorly executed, still remains actively involved in planning various events. Additionally, internal investigations have found instances of agents violating policies, revealing a culture of negligence and misconduct within the agency.

  • 4-3. Impact on campaign security measures

  • The assassination attempt and ongoing security lapses have led to revisions and heightened alertness in Trump's security detail. Every protocol has been reassessed and agents are reportedly on their best behavior to prevent such incidents in the future. The security measures have ostensibly been tightened, with a focus on avoiding past mistakes and addressing internal issues within the Secret Service. Despite these efforts, the persistent issues within the agency suggest a need for deeper structural reforms to ensure the safety of the candidate and the efficacy of campaign security.

5. State-Level Campaign Strategies

  • 5-1. Campaign events in Pennsylvania

  • Both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have focused heavily on Pennsylvania, a key battleground state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Trump held a rally in Wilkes-Barre, while Harris conducted a bus tour starting in Pittsburgh. These events underscore the importance of Pennsylvania, which has a significant history of influencing election results. Trump has targeted rural and small-town voters, emphasizing grievances against the current administration. Harris, meanwhile, seeks to mobilize Democratic strongholds and make inroads in traditionally conservative areas. Their campaign events reflect their respective strategies and voter bases in the state.

  • 5-2. Electoral significance of key states

  • Pennsylvania is considered one of the most crucial states in the upcoming election due to its substantial electoral votes and its history as a bellwether state. With 19 electoral votes, it holds more weight compared to other swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. A statistical model by Nate Silver indicates that Pennsylvania is more than twice as likely as any other state to be the 'tipping point' in the election. Harris currently leads Trump by over two percentage points according to FiveThirtyEight. Trump's narrow victory in 2016 and Biden's win in 2020 highlight Pennsylvania's fluctuating political landscape.

  • 5-3. Advertising and voter outreach efforts

  • Advertising and voter outreach in Pennsylvania have been intense, with more than $42 million spent on advertising since Biden dropped out in late July. This is more than twice the amount spent in any other swing state. Both campaigns have reserved substantial ad time, with Democratic and Republican groups planning to spend $114 million on advertisements from late August through the election. The Trump campaign is focusing on solidifying support among white, non-college-educated voters in areas like Luzerne County, whereas the Harris campaign is leveraging a sophisticated ground game with 36 field offices in the state. Volunteers and organizers for Harris are actively engaging voters to discuss her vision for the future.

6. Media and Public Perception

  • 6-1. Media Portrayal of Candidates

  • The media has played a significant role in shaping public perception of both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris during the 2024 US presidential campaign. Trump has faced both support and criticism from various media outlets, with his strong language and dramatic claims receiving substantial coverage. He has been consistent in his aggressive rhetoric, frequently attacking Harris over her policies and personal qualities. On the other hand, Kamala Harris has been portrayed as both a dynamic leader rejuvenating the Democratic Party and as a 'flip-flopper' who changes her stance on critical issues. This inconsistency has been highlighted in the media, lending credence to her detractors' arguments that she lacks firm principles. Media narratives have particularly focused on her shifting positions on issues like the death penalty, healthcare, and fracking, thereby influencing public perception of her credibility.

  • 6-2. Fact-Checks and Public Reception

  • Fact-checking has become a critical element of the 2024 election coverage. For instance, Trump's claims about the rampant crime rate under Harris's leadership have been scrutinized, with statistics showing that violent crime has dropped sharply, contradicting his narrative. Similarly, Harris's attempts to pin blame on corporations for ongoing inflation have been met with mixed reactions, revealing a complex public sentiment. Public reception has also been shaped by perceptions of competency. Harris, while gaining momentum, continues to face criticisms, such as Trump's assertion that she has 'communist leanings.' Despite this, some segments of the public have shown increasing support for her, especially in the wake of her policy proposals aimed at alleviating economic hardships.

  • 6-3. Impact of Social Media on Campaign Dynamics

  • Social media platforms have played a pivotal role in the 2024 election, significantly influencing campaign dynamics and voter sentiment. Trump's campaign has extensively used social media to disseminate messages and engage with his base, often emphasizing economic concerns and personal attacks on Harris. These platforms have allowed Trump to maintain a direct line of communication with his supporters, bypassing traditional media channels. On the other hand, Harris's campaign has also leveraged social media to mobilize support and counteract negative narratives. Her team has highlighted her policy achievements and connected with younger voters through targeted social media campaigns. The immediacy and reach of social media have ensured that both positive and negative developments in the campaign are quickly amplified, impacting voter engagement and opinion.

7. Party Dynamics and Internal Tensions

  • 7-1. Democratic Party Unity Post-Biden's Withdrawal

  • Following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic nominee. This shift significantly impacted the party's dynamics, resulting in consolidated support behind Harris. Biden, persuaded by influential figures like Nancy Pelosi, decided to step aside to improve the Democratic Party's chances against Donald Trump. Harris, previously viewed skeptically by some party members, rejuvenated the party and quickly garnered popular backing reflected in large crowds at her campaign rallies.

  • 7-2. Internal Conflicts Within Campaign Teams

  • Internal conflicts are evident in both Democratic and Republican campaign teams. Former President Donald Trump has publicly accused President Joe Biden of feeling resentful towards former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, suggesting internal strife within the Democratic Party. Within the Republican Party, Trump’s campaign is characterized by intimidation tactics and internal purges of members seen as disloyal. Trump has used his Truth Social platform to attack fellow Republicans, reshaping the party by targeting and harassing those not aligned with his MAGA agenda.

  • 7-3. Trump's Influence on the Republican Party

  • Donald Trump's influence on the Republican Party has been profound and coercive. Since launching his Truth Social media platform in early 2022, Trump has targeted over 100 party officials, activists, and media figures for condemnation. His strategy of intimidation led to significant career repercussions for many Republicans, including several who voted to impeach him. Trump's endorsement remains a powerful tool for driving disloyal members out of office, and his aggressive tactics have caused notable internal strife and realignments within the party. At the Illinois State Fair, state party chair Kathy Salvi expressed confidence in Republican voter enthusiasm, despite the internal conflicts stirred by Trump’s actions.

8. Conclusion

  • The 2024 US Presidential Campaign illustrates a profound divide between Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s campaign strategies. Trump's approach, characterized by aggressive rhetoric and economic measures such as significant tax cuts and tariffs, has elicited mixed reactions from voters concerned about feasibility and national deficit implications. Kamala Harris’s policy-driven strategy, focusing on economic reforms like affordable housing and corporate price gouging bans, enjoys favorable responses from voters seeking practical solutions. However, ongoing security concerns marked by lapses in the Secret Service detail raise questions about candidate safety. State-level campaigns, particularly in Pennsylvania with its substantial electoral votes, emerge as crucial, with both candidates investing heavily in advertising and voter outreach. Media portrayal and social media dynamics further influence public perception, reflecting the contentious and evolving political landscape. Despite internal tensions within the Republican and Democratic parties, the conclusions drawn from these elements offer significant insights into electoral strategies and potential future developments in US politics. Notably, the practical applicability of Harris’s economic policies and Trump’s influence on the Republican Party’s cohesion remain pivotal points for future electoral cycles.

9. Glossary

  • 9-1. Donald Trump [Person]

  • Former President Donald Trump is the Republican candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election. Known for his aggressive campaign tactics and divisive policies, Trump's focus on economic issues and law enforcement forms the core of his platform. His influence on the Republican Party and challenges with campaign security are significant aspects covered in the report.

  • 9-2. Kamala Harris [Person]

  • Vice President Kamala Harris is the Democratic candidate following President Joe Biden's withdrawal. Her campaign emphasizes economic reforms, affordable housing, and unity within the Democratic Party. Harris's policy-driven approach and public support play a crucial role in her competitive stance against Trump.

  • 9-3. Secret Service [Organization]

  • The US Secret Service is responsible for the safety of presidential candidates. The report highlights significant security lapses during Trump's rallies, prompting reforms and enhanced measures to ensure candidate protection amidst contentious campaign events.

  • 9-4. Pennsylvania [State]

  • Pennsylvania is identified as a key battleground state with 19 electoral votes. The state's voting patterns and campaign activities are pivotal for both Trump and Harris, making it a primary focus for rallies, voter outreach, and advertising efforts.

  • 9-5. 2024 US Presidential Election [Event]

  • The upcoming 2024 US Presidential Election sees a contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The election is characterized by contrasting campaign strategies, economic policies, and security concerns that dominate the political landscape.

10. Source Documents