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Tracking Progress Towards Human-Level AI: Developments by OpenAI

GOOVER DAILY REPORT August 6, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. OpenAI's Classification System for AI Progress
  3. Development and Rumors Surrounding GPT-5
  4. Introduction of ChatGPT-4o Mini
  5. Capabilities and Applications of GPT-4
  6. Steps Toward Achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
  7. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'Tracking Progress Towards Human-Level AI: Developments by OpenAI' provides an in-depth analysis of OpenAI's advancements towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It details the milestones, current capabilities, and future projections of OpenAI's AI development. A focal point is the company's five-level classification system for AI progress, illustrating their structured approach from conversational AI (Level 1) to AI capable of running organizations independently (Level 5). The report also examines the roles of GPT-4 and the anticipated GPT-5 in advancing these levels, alongside the introduction of ChatGPT-4o Mini, which aims to balance performance with cost-efficiency. Key findings include the demonstration of human-like reasoning by GPT-4 and the strategic enhancements expected in GPT-5, such as improved reasoning and video processing capabilities. The report underscores the competitive AI landscape and the strategic shifts within OpenAI, driven by rivals like Google. Ultimately, it outlines the current and projected trajectory towards achieving AGI.

2. OpenAI's Classification System for AI Progress

  • 2-1. Introduction to the Five-Level Classification

  • (Bloomberg) -- OpenAI has come up with a set of five levels to track its progress toward building artificial intelligence software capable of outperforming humans. The classification ranges from AI that can interact in conversational language with people (Level 1) to AI that can do the work of an organization (Level 5). The levels were put together by executives and senior leaders at OpenAI and are considered a work in progress.

  • 2-2. Current Status: Level 1 and Nearing Level 2

  • (Bloomberg) -- OpenAI believes it is currently on the first level but is on the cusp of reaching the second, which they call 'Reasoners.' This refers to systems that can do basic problem-solving tasks as well as a human with a doctorate-level education but without access to any tools. During an all-hands meeting, company leadership demonstrated a research project involving the GPT-4 model that showed new skills indicative of human-like reasoning.

  • 2-3. Role of GPT-4 in Achieving Level 2

  • (Bloomberg) -- At the same meeting, company leadership gave a demonstration of a research project involving GPT-4, which is believed to showcase human-like reasoning skills. This project is pivotal in moving towards Level 2, where the AI can perform basic problem-solving like a human with a PhD. OpenAI is always testing new capabilities internally, a common practice in the industry.

  • 2-4. Future Levels: Agents to Organizations

  • (Bloomberg) -- The third tier, 'Agents,' refers to AI systems that can spend several days taking actions on a user’s behalf. Level 4 describes AI that can come up with new innovations. The most advanced level, Level 5, termed 'Organizations,' involves AI capable of running an entire organization independently. These levels are part of OpenAI’s systematic approach to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a goal that AI researchers have debated over the years.

3. Development and Rumors Surrounding GPT-5

  • 3-1. Background: Transition from GPT-4 to GPT-5

  • OpenAI announced the development of GPT-5 following the success of its predecessor, GPT-4. GPT-4, which was launched a few months after ChatGPT’s release in late 2022, brought significant upgrades over GPT-3.5, specifically in logical reasoning, handling up to 25,000 words of text, and multimodal capabilities such as image and graph 'vision.' Despite not knowing about events post-2021, GPT-4’s broader general knowledge marked a notable improvement in the AI’s comprehension and functionality. Transition towards GPT-5 was driven by competitive pressures and internal strategical shifts, especially after Google's announcement of its Gemini language model capable of matching GPT-4 in certain areas.

  • 3-2. Key Enhancements and Innovations in GPT-5

  • GPT-5 is expected to continue the trend of substantial improvements witnessed with each new generation of OpenAI’s language models. Key enhancements include better reasoning capabilities and the ability to process video, further extending the multimodal abilities introduced in GPT-4. Additionally, the next-generation model aims to increase the size and variety of its training dataset, potentially improving its understanding of obscure scientific concepts and lesser-known subjects. Another significant innovation might be the integration with third-party services, bringing closer the vision of artificial general intelligence (AGI) by enabling the AI to perform tasks such as online shopping based on user preferences.

  • 3-3. Industry Context: Competition and Strategic Shifts

  • The development of GPT-5 is occurring in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving AI industry. Google’s announcement of the Gemini language model and its multimodal capabilities has intensified the race for AI supremacy. In response, OpenAI has not only been focused on advancing its language models but also on addressing concerns around AI safety and ethics. The competitive landscape prompted strategic shifts, such as the introduction of GPT-4o with multimodal capabilities, designed to bridge innovations until GPT-5's release. The rivalry also extends to financial investments, with notable figures like Elon Musk and tech giants like Microsoft investing heavily in AI innovations, further pushing OpenAI to maintain its edge.

  • 3-4. Projected Release Timeline and Market Expectations

  • Based on various industry sources, GPT-5 is anticipated to release in mid-2024. This timeline follows the lengthy development process similar to GPT-4, which took over two years for training, development, and testing. Early versions of GPT-5 have already been showcased to select enterprise users, with feedback indicating higher quality responses compared to GPT-4. However, the model is still in its training stage and will undergo rigorous safety testing before wider release. Market expectations for GPT-5 are high, driven by its anticipated advanced reasoning capabilities and expanded functionalities. It is likely that access to GPT-5 will require subscriptions like ChatGPT Plus due to the high costs involved in training and operating these sophisticated models.

4. Introduction of ChatGPT-4o Mini

  • 4-1. Product Launch and Naming Scheme Debate

  • The release of ChatGPT-4o Mini, which took place on July 18, 2024, has sparked a debate regarding the naming scheme used by OpenAI. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, responded to social media comments suggesting the need for a 'naming scheme revamp.' This interaction was rare as Altman usually utilizes his social media accounts strictly for official announcements. Despite acknowledging the need for a change, there are no stated plans to alter the naming conventions for ChatGPT models presently.

  • 4-2. Performance and Cost-efficiency of ChatGPT-4o Mini

  • ChatGPT-4o Mini is described by OpenAI as their 'most cost-efficient small model.' It boasts a cost of 15 cents per million input tokens and 60 cents per million output tokens. Performance-wise, the model has achieved an MMLU (Massive Multitask Language Understanding) score of 82%, indicative of its efficient performance. Altman has emphasized that the model is fast and user-friendly, anticipating a positive reception from users.

  • 4-3. Market Applications and Academic Benchmarks

  • The ChatGPT-4o Mini model is part of OpenAI's broader strategy to make AI more accessible. It is significantly cheaper than previous models yet retains the ability to perform common tasks such as customer support, translation, and data processing. Notably, GPT-4o Mini exceeds GPT-3.5 Turbo and other small models on academic benchmarks across both textual intelligence and multimodal reasoning. Additionally, it supports the same range of languages as the GPT-4o model, further expanding its user base and applicability.

  • 4-4. Current Branding and Future Directions

  • Despite the discussions and suggestions about a revamp, there are no current plans to change the name of ChatGPT. The consistency in naming has contributed significantly to the brand recognition and success of OpenAI in the AI landscape. Moving forward, it remains to be seen if OpenAI will adapt its branding to reflect the feedback from the user community.

5. Capabilities and Applications of GPT-4

  • 5-1. Overview of ChatGPT Versions

  • ChatGPT, developed by OpenAI, has seen several iterations since its inception. The earlier version, GPT-3.5 (Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3.5), is a state-of-the-art language processing AI model that empowers users with 175 billion parameters for generating human-like text. It is capable of a wide range of applications, including language translation, language modeling, and generating text for diverse uses such as chatbots. The latest model, GPT-4, builds upon the strengths of GPT-3.5 with an even more advanced set of capabilities available exclusively to paid subscribers. Both versions of ChatGPT are accessible on Android and Apple devices, though GPT-4 offers enhanced features at a monthly subscription cost.

  • 5-2. Functionalities and Improvements in GPT-4

  • GPT-4 introduces a host of new features and improvements over GPT-3.5. These enhancements include the ability to significantly increase the number of words in input requests up to 25,000, which is eight times that of the original ChatGPT model. GPT-4 is also designed to reduce errors known as 'hallucinations' where the AI may produce nonsensical or incorrect information. Furthermore, GPT-4 demonstrates a better understanding of complex language tasks, creative writing, and even images. Users can now send a picture of ingredients to ChatGPT-4, and it will generate a recipe in response. It also shows potential for using video to initialize prompts, although this feature was not demonstrated at the time. Moreover, GPT-4 includes image recognition, making it capable of describing images to blind people.

  • 5-3. Current Limitations and Challenges

  • Despite its advancements, GPT-4 has its limitations and challenges. It can still produce false or confused information, particularly with overly complex or niche prompts. Additionally, the model has a limited understanding of events and updates post-2021, often struggling with recent information. Ethical and safety concerns also persist, as the model can inadvertently generate biased, harmful, or inappropriate content. OpenAI has implemented safeguards to minimize these risks, such as preventing the model from responding to certain harmful prompts. Furthermore, issues surrounding the potential misuse of the model, especially in academic settings where it might facilitate plagiarism, have led to its ban in New York public schools.

  • 5-4. Integration of Dall-E 3 for Image Generation

  • In September 2023, OpenAI announced the integration of Dall-E 3 with ChatGPT. Dall-E 3 is an advanced AI art generator that allows users to create images through text prompts. This feature is currently available to ChatGPT Plus and Enterprise users, providing them with the capability to generate and edit images directly within ChatGPT. The integration enhances the functional range of GPT-4 by combining advanced text and image generation capabilities, though it remains exclusive to paying subscribers for the time being.

6. Steps Toward Achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

  • 6-1. Five-Step Process for AGI

  • OpenAI has outlined a five-step process to reach Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The initial step involves creating 'Chatbots' or 'AI with conversational language,' accomplished with GPT-3.5. Level 2 focuses on 'reasoners,' capable of human-level problem solving across a broad range of areas, with advancements expected with models like GPT-4.5 and Claude Opus 3.5. Level 3 aims for AI models to perform actions independently or under general human direction, potentially achievable with GPT-5. Level 4 targets AI that aids in the invention of new ideas and contributes to human knowledge. The final stage, Level 5, is where AI can run an entire organization without human input, combining all previous capabilities with broad intelligence.

  • 6-2. Current Efforts and Milestones

  • OpenAI has made significant progress in AGI development, particularly through its recent models like GPT-4 and GPT-4o. These models demonstrate advanced conversational and reasoning abilities, key milestones towards achieving AGI. The next anticipated model, GPT-5, is expected to exhibit doctoral-level intelligence across various domains. However, OpenAI is still in the early stages, having reached only the second step of the outlined five-step process.

  • 6-3. Role of Advancements in Reasoning Capabilities

  • Advancements in reasoning capabilities are crucial for reaching AGI. Current models like GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet have shown limited reasoning abilities. However, the development of 'reasoners,' which can solve problems at a human level without specific prompting, marks an essential step forward. Future models, including GPT-4.5 and the upcoming GPT-5, are expected to further enhance these reasoning capabilities.

  • 6-4. Collaborative Goals Among Major AI Labs

  • Major AI labs, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind, share the overarching goal of developing AGI. Collaborative efforts are focused on creating models that push the boundaries of AI capabilities. Products released by these labs are seen as incremental steps towards AGI. For instance, OpenAI's partnership with the Los Alamos National Laboratory aims to leverage AI in bioscience research, which could pave the way for future innovations.

7. Conclusion

  • OpenAI's continuous advancements in AI technology, particularly the developments of GPT-4 and GPT-5, signify notable progress toward achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The demonstrated capabilities of GPT-4, such as advanced problem-solving and multimodal functionalities, position OpenAI close to reaching Level 2 of their five-level classification system. The upcoming GPT-5 is expected to further enhance reasoning abilities and multimodal input processing, reinforcing OpenAI's competitive edge. Moreover, the release of ChatGPT-4o Mini highlights OpenAI's commitment to cost-efficient and accessible AI solutions, thus broadening AI's applicability across various sectors. However, the journey towards full AGI faces significant challenges, including ethical considerations, safety issues, and the dynamic competitive environment in the AI industry. Despite these challenges, the collaborative efforts among leading AI labs and continuous technological developments hold promising prospects for achieving AGI. The report suggests that with further breakthroughs and the integration of diverse cognitive abilities, OpenAI, along with other major AI labs, is on a viable path toward creating highly autonomous, human-level AI systems.

8. Glossary

  • 8-1. OpenAI [Company]

  • OpenAI is a research organization focused on developing artificial intelligence technology. It aims to create advanced AI systems that can perform tasks surpassing human capabilities, with the ultimate goal of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). OpenAI's contributions include the development of widely-known language models like GPT-3, GPT-4, and ongoing work on GPT-5.

  • 8-2. GPT-4 [Technology]

  • GPT-4 is a language model developed by OpenAI. It offers improved problem-solving abilities, longer input handling, and enhanced creativity. It highlights the evolution from GPT-3 with its integration in various applications from academic research to commercial use, also incorporating Dall-E 3 for image generation.

  • 8-3. GPT-5 [Technology]

  • GPT-5 is the upcoming iteration of OpenAI's language models, which is expected to feature improved reasoning capabilities, support for multimodal inputs including video, and a broader knowledge base. Development is influenced by competition and strategic shifts within the AI industry.

  • 8-4. ChatGPT-4o Mini [Product]

  • ChatGPT-4o Mini is a cost-efficient and high-performing iteration of OpenAI's ChatGPT series, designed for specific applications like customer support and translation. It underscores the importance of balancing affordability with performance in AI offerings.

  • 8-5. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [Technology/Concept]

  • Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to highly autonomous systems capable of outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. OpenAI's five-step process aims to guide their efforts towards achieving AGI, which encompasses advanced reasoning, autonomous task performance, and significant cognitive abilities.

9. Source Documents