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Kamala Harris's Ascendancy and Challenges in the 2024 US Presidential Election

GOOVER DAILY REPORT August 12, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Kamala Harris's Candidacy and Campaign Dynamics
  3. Key Issues and Policy Stances
  4. Challenges in Gaining Voter Support
  5. Donald Trump's Campaign and Strategy
  6. External Influences and Controversies
  7. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'Kamala Harris's Ascendancy and Challenges in the 2024 US Presidential Election' investigates Kamala Harris's rise as the Democratic nominee following Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race. It delves into her campaign strategies, including the significance of key endorsements, financial backing, and her position on pivotal issues such as reproductive rights, healthcare, economic policies, climate change, and foreign policy. The report also examines public perceptions, media portrayal, and the challenges Harris faces from her primary opponent, Donald Trump. Emphasizing the influence of misinformation, the report highlights the impact of deepfake videos and AI-generated disinformation on Harris's campaign and the broader election landscape.

2. Kamala Harris's Candidacy and Campaign Dynamics

  • 2-1. Harris's emergence as the Democratic nominee

  • Kamala Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election following Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024. Biden announced his decision after a series of public gaffes and increasing pressure from within the Democratic Party. Key Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, played a significant role in this transition. Biden, initially hesitant, ultimately endorsed Harris, which led to her quickly securing enough delegates to become the nominee. Harris's rapid rise was supported by endorsements from high-profile Democratic leaders and strong financial backing.

  • 2-2. Role and influence of endorsements

  • Endorsements have played a crucial role in Kamala Harris's campaign. Prominent figures within the Democratic Party, such as Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, and several state governors like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro and Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer, have publicly supported Harris. This collective endorsement bolstered her position as the nominee. The endorsements emphasized Harris's qualifications and readiness to lead, and they significantly enhanced her campaign's momentum and credibility among Democratic voters.

  • 2-3. Financial support and campaign resources

  • Kamala Harris's campaign has benefited from substantial financial support. Following Joe Biden's endorsement, her campaign raised $81 million within 24 hours and a total of $126 million by the end of that week. This level of financial backing has been instrumental in building a robust campaign infrastructure, including advertising, grassroots efforts, and preparations for the Democratic National Convention.

  • 2-4. Public perception and media portrayal

  • Public perception of Kamala Harris's candidacy has been mixed. While there is significant excitement and support among some voter groups, skepticism remains about her qualifications and ability to unite the Democratic base. According to a poll by The U.S. Sun, nearly one-third of voters believe Harris is less qualified compared to other potential Democratic nominees. Additionally, 28% of respondents consider it very unlikely that Harris will defeat Donald Trump. Media portrayal has also played a role, with disinformation and manipulated media, such as a deepfake video shared by Elon Musk, impacting her campaign. Despite these challenges, Harris continues to garner support through her stance on key issues and endorsements from influential Democrats.

3. Key Issues and Policy Stances

  • 3-1. Harris's Focus on Working and Middle-Class Americans

  • Kamala Harris has emphasized her dedication to uplifting working and middle-class Americans. Her platform includes enabling them to join unions, retire with dignity, live without fear of gun violence, and obtain affordable healthcare. Harris supports the Biden administration’s initiatives such as lowering drug costs, reducing child poverty, forgiving student loan debt, and removing medical debt from credit reports. Additionally, her 2020 campaign promises reflect a more progressive stance than Biden, proposing measures like a refundable tax credit of up to $6,000 a year for middle-class and working families through the LIFT the Middle Class Act.

  • 3-2. Stance on Reproductive Rights and Healthcare

  • Harris has been a staunch advocate for reproductive rights, particularly after the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022. She embarked on a 'reproductive freedoms tour' and has promoted more progressive policies on abortion than Biden. Her focus on maternal health and her own national tour have positioned her as a stronger messenger on reproductive issues. Harris also supports a government-backed health insurance system akin to Medicare-for-All but retains the option for private insurance companies to offer Medicare plans. To reduce drug costs, she previously proposed allowing the federal government to set 'fair prices' for drugs sold cheaper in other comparable countries and employing the 'march-in' authority in extreme cases.

  • 3-3. Economic Policies and Student Debt Relief

  • Harris’s economic policies aim to provide more opportunities for Americans to get ahead, focusing on affordable care, including healthcare, childcare, elder care, and family leave. Her past proposals include raising the corporate income tax rate to 35% and introducing the Rent Relief Act, which grants a refundable tax credit for renters spending a significant portion of their income on rent. She has also highlighted her role in promoting the Biden administration’s student debt forgiveness initiatives, which have forgiven over $168 billion for nearly 4.8 million borrowers. Harris aims to continue this momentum despite some legal challenges.

  • 3-4. Climate Change and the Green New Deal

  • Harris has a long history of advocacy for climate and environmental justice. As California Attorney General, she took legal actions against major oil companies and investigated Exxon Mobil for climate change disinformation. In the Senate, Harris sponsored the Green New Deal resolution. Her climate approach includes supporting a fracking ban (temporarily postponed when she became Biden’s running mate) and focusing on reducing climate pollution by 2035 pursuant to the Paris Agreement. Harris is viewed favorably by climate advocates and Democrats who contrast her policies sharply against Trump's pro-fossil fuel stance.

  • 3-5. Foreign Policy and Diplomatic Efforts

  • Harris has been actively involved in foreign policy and diplomatic efforts, particularly in Central America. She spearheaded initiatives like the Partnership for Central America, which focuses on job creation in the region through private-sector investment. Harris is a strong proponent of supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, having met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky multiple times and committing $1.5 billion for various forms of aid. Her approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict includes a firm stance on Israel's right to defend itself while advocating for humanitarian concerns in Gaza, showcasing a balance of empathy and diplomatic assertiveness.

4. Challenges in Gaining Voter Support

  • 4-1. Skepticism and Criticism from Within the Democratic Party

  • Kamala Harris has encountered notable skepticism and criticism from within the Democratic Party. The choice of Harris as the Democratic nominee followed Joe Biden's withdrawal, a decision that left some Democrats only half-satisfied. Prominent party figures like President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and the Clintons displayed varying degrees of discontent. Additionally, the national political press, aligned with Democratic donors, has been engaged in reshaping Harris's public image to whitewash her controversial record, an effort met with mixed reception within the party (source: go-public-web-eng-N1795479124926898662-0-0).

  • 4-2. Union and Independent Voter Appeal

  • Union and independent voters present a challenging demographic for Harris. The economic policies of the Biden administration have ostensibly left many workers struggling, as indicated by stories like that of Nicaraguan-born Linda Fornos, who expressed her frustration with the 'Biden economy' impacting her family's financial stability. With her sons working multiple jobs to stay afloat, Fornos represents a segment of the electorate that may shift towards Trump due to economic concerns (source: go-public-web-eng-6559125558873804982-0-0).

  • 4-3. Minority and Youth Voter Dynamics

  • The dynamics of minority and youth voters are crucial for Harris's campaign. Latino voters, in particular, have shown signs of shifting allegiances. Economic concerns and cultural values contribute to this trend, with notable figures within the community endorsing Trump. However, Harris’s popularity among Latino voters remains somewhat strong, as she holds a significant lead in approval over Biden within this group. Her ties with influential leaders, such as Dolores Huerta, are critical in building support (sources: go-public-web-eng-6559125558873804982-0-0).

  • 4-4. Concerns About Previous Ties to Biden

  • Harris’s previous association with Biden’s administration poses a concern among voters skeptical of the outgoing administration's performance. Critics argue that she is linked to the perceived failures and policy missteps of Biden's presidency, which detractors claim included poor management of the southern border and chaotic vice-presidential office operations. Despite her selection being framed as a tactical victory for Biden, overcoming the shadow of the past administration remains a significant challenge in her campaign (source: go-public-web-eng-N1795479124926898662-0-0).

5. Donald Trump's Campaign and Strategy

  • 5-1. Trump's Ambivalence About Participating in Debates

  • Former President Donald Trump has shown uncertainty about participating in scheduled debates with Kamala Harris. Initially, he agreed to a debate hosted by ABC News on September 10, but later proposed an alternate debate on Fox News on September 4. Trump's reluctance is partly based on his distrust of ABC News, which he believes is biased against him, and his desire for a live audience, as stated in his Truth Social post. Harris criticized Trump for trying to avoid a fair confrontation, and her campaign emphasized that she would be present at the originally planned debate.

  • 5-2. Strategies Targeting Key Demographics

  • Donald Trump's campaign has focused on winning over traditionally Democratic states and demographics, such as blue-collar and union workers. Returning to Minnesota, a state he narrowly lost in 2016, Trump has held rallies and emphasized his appeal to iron mining communities. His running mate, JD Vance, has been instrumental in reaching Midwestern Rust Belt voters. The Trump campaign has been investing resources, including opening new offices and hiring local advisers, to fortify their position in these key demographics.

  • 5-3. Media Tactics and Personal Attacks on Harris

  • Trump's campaign has utilized media tactics and personal attacks to undermine Kamala Harris. During a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, Trump mocked Harris's racial identity and pronunciation of her name, calling her a 'lunatic.' He has framed media outlets like ABC News as 'fake news' and questioned their integrity. Trump's use of Fox News as a platform for debates and his social media posts highlight his strategy to control the narrative and appeal to his core supporters.

  • 5-4. Efforts to Sway Traditionally Democratic States

  • Trump has made concerted efforts to sway traditionally Democratic states, particularly Minnesota. Despite losing the state in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump remains optimistic about his chances. He has cited the disarray within the Democratic Party and the supposed failures of the Biden-Harris administration as opportunities to flip the state. His campaign has been actively organizing and mobilizing resources, indicating a strategy aimed at securing these Democratic strongholds.

6. External Influences and Controversies

  • 6-1. Impact of deepfake videos and misinformation

  • Misinformation campaigns have significantly impacted the 2024 US Presidential Election. Kamala Harris's campaign has been particularly vulnerable, with deepfake videos and AI-generated misinformation influencing public perception. One notable instance involved Elon Musk’s AI search assistant on the X platform, Grok, which falsely reported that ballot deadlines had passed in multiple key states following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal. This misinformation was widely shared, reaching millions before it was corrected through a letter from multiple state secretaries.

  • 6-2. Historical analogies and public sentiment

  • Public sentiment has been shaped by historical analogies drawing parallels between past and present electoral challenges. For instance, The Cook County morgue incident in 1934, which drew large crowds, has been used as an analogy to describe the overwhelming public interest and scrutiny Harris is facing in her campaign. Articles and commentaries have also drawn comparisons to historical events to warn about the dangers of misinformation and the profound impacts it could have on the democratic process.

  • 6-3. AI misinformation issues and regulatory concerns

  • The proliferation of AI-generated misinformation has raised substantial regulatory concerns. Five secretaries of state have formally urged Elon Musk to address issues with Grok, X’s AI bot. The bot not only misled users about ballot deadlines but also continued to disseminate this false information for over a week. This incident highlights the broader concerns around the regulation of AI in election contexts, mirroring past instances where regulatory bodies have had to step in to manage the dissemination of false information.

7. Conclusion

  • Kamala Harris confronts a complex political landscape as she seeks the presidency in 2024. Her campaign benefits from substantial endorsements and financial support; however, it contends with skepticism about her ability to unite the Democratic base and adequately address key issues. Donald Trump presents a formidable challenge with his calculated strategies and influential voter base. Misinformation campaigns and regulatory concerns regarding AI-generated disinformation add another layer of complexity. Harris's ability to secure voter support across diverse demographics and effectively counter Trump's strategies will be critical. Limitations include voter skepticism and misinformation, suggesting that future election integrity measures and voter education are essential for a fair democratic process. The evolution of the 2024 US Presidential Election reflects the polarized and dynamic nature of contemporary American politics, highlighting the need for strategic adaptability and robust campaign measures moving forward.

8. Glossary

  • 8-1. Kamala Harris [Person]

  • Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, is the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election. She is characterized by her progressive stance on issues like reproductive rights and climate change. Her candidacy marks a significant shift in the Democratic Party’s leadership, bringing new energy and challenges as she confronts skepticism and aims to secure diverse voter support.

  • 8-2. Donald Trump [Person]

  • Donald Trump, the former President, is the Republican nominee for the 2024 election. He has adopted a combative strategy against Harris and has shown reluctance to participate in traditional media debates. His influence remains significant among key demographics, and his campaign is focused on regaining battleground states.

  • 8-3. 2024 US Presidential Election [Event]

  • The upcoming 2024 presidential election features Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump as the Republican challenger. The election is marked by dynamic voter sentiments, significant media portrayal, and external influences like misinformation.

9. Source Documents