Your browser does not support JavaScript!

Current Tourism and Seismic Activity in Japan: Risks and Trends in 2024

GOOVER DAILY REPORT August 12, 2024
goover

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Recent Surge in Japan's Tourism
  3. Seismic Activity and Safety Concerns
  4. Risks and Preparedness for Travelers
  5. Government’s Response and Infrastructure
  6. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'Current Tourism and Seismic Activity in Japan: Risks and Trends in 2024' provides a comprehensive overview of the dual landscape of booming tourism and increasing seismic risks in Japan. It highlights the recent surge in tourism driven by the historic depreciation of the yen, which has made travel to Japan more affordable. With over 14.5 million tourists in the first five months of 2024, Japan is experiencing a significant influx of visitors, particularly from Taiwan and the United States. However, this surge in tourism coincides with increased seismic activity in the region, including a recent series of earthquakes and the issuance of a 'megaquake advisory' by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The report combines these elements to offer insights into travel safety measures and guidelines for both residents and tourists amidst the ongoing seismic risks.

2. Recent Surge in Japan's Tourism

  • 2-1. Historic Decline of the Yen and Increased Affordability

  • The primary driver behind the recent surge in tourism to Japan is the historic collapse of the yen, making travel significantly cheaper. The weak yen has resulted in more affordable dining, hotel stays, and other travel-related expenses. According to multiple sources, Japan has seen over 14.5 million visitors in the first five months of 2024, marking a 70% increase compared to the same period last year. The current low value of the yen, at a 38-year low compared to the dollar, has positioned Japan as a budget-friendly destination.

  • 2-2. Tourism Statistics and Demographics

  • Japan has experienced a dramatic increase in visitor numbers in 2024. Over 14.5 million tourists visited the country in the first five months of the year, which is a 70% increase from the previous year and is on pace to surpass the 2019 record of 31 million visitors. The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) data indicate that visitors are primarily coming from 18 regions globally, with the largest numbers reported from Taiwan and the United States.

  • 2-3. Popular Tourist Activities and Destinations

  • Visitors are attracted to Japan for its unique blend of futuristic and traditional experiences, clean environment, and renowned dining options. Popular activities include sushi-making classes in Tokyo and exploring cultural sites in Kyoto. The surge in tourists, however, has also led to overcrowded trails and littering issues at popular destinations like Mt. Fuji. In response, Japan has implemented measures such as admission fees and limits on the number of hikers to manage the influx.

3. Seismic Activity and Safety Concerns

  • 3-1. Recent Earthquakes in Japan

  • On August 8, 2024, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Miyazaki Prefecture in southwestern Japan. The tremor led to immediate tsunami warnings for several western islands and caused minor injuries to nine individuals on Kyushu island. Additionally, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake occurred off the southern island of Kyushu, sitting at the edge of the Nankai Trough, an area of significant seismic activity. Though no major damage was reported, the proximity of these quakes to key fault lines has heightened alertness among experts and residents.

  • 3-2. Japan Meteorological Agency’s Megaquake Advisory

  • For the first time, Japan's Meteorological Agency issued a 'megaquake advisory' indicating a higher-than-usual risk of a large earthquake. This advisory was triggered by the recent 7.1-magnitude earthquakes and the agency's assessment of increased seismic activity in the Nankai Trough. The advisory does not predict an imminent earthquake but advises heightened vigilance over the next week. Residents are encouraged to check evacuation routes, ensure they have sufficient emergency supplies, and prepare for potential worst-case scenarios.

  • 3-3. Historical Context of Seismic Activity

  • The Nankai Trough has a history of generating devastating earthquakes approximately every 90 to 200 years. Past events, such as the twin earthquakes in 1944 and 1946, have caused significant destruction and loss of life. Experts estimate a 70% to 80% probability of another magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake occurring along the trough within the next 30 years, with worst-case scenarios predicting over 200,000 potential fatalities.

  • 3-4. Tectonic Plates and Earthquake Swarms

  • Japan is located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, a seismically active zone due to the convergence of multiple tectonic plates, including the Pacific Plate, Eurasian Plate, and Indo-Australian Plate. These plates continuously mesh and collide, leading to frequent seismic events. The subduction zone dynamics, particularly in the Nankai Trough, contribute to stress accumulation that can result in megaquakes. The recent advisory highlights the importance of understanding these geological processes and the need for ongoing vigilance and preparedness.

4. Risks and Preparedness for Travelers

  • 4-1. Preparedness Measures for Earthquakes

  • The Japanese government and local authorities have implemented a wide array of measures to prepare for earthquakes and manage their impacts. Japan's robust infrastructure, such as quake-resistant buildings and advanced early warning systems, plays a crucial role in mitigating risks. Additionally, the country has established comprehensive emergency response plans including regular evacuation drills and well-maintained hazard maps, which are crucial for public awareness and readiness.

  • 4-2. Impact on Tourism from Recent Seismic Advisories

  • Recent seismic advisories, such as the 'megaquake advisory' and warnings following 'slow slip' phenomena in Chiba Prefecture, have significantly impacted tourism in Japan. The Japanese Meteorological Agency has been proactive in alerting the public about potential strong tremors, which has led to increased vigilance among both residents and travelers. The occurrence and potential for more strong quakes have raised concerns, but the organized preparedness measures help in mitigating those concerns to an extent.

  • 4-3. Guidelines for Safe Travel

  • Travelers to Japan are advised to follow specific guidelines to ensure their safety amidst frequent seismic activity. These guidelines include familiarizing themselves with the local hazard maps, knowing the locations of nearby evacuation centers, and staying updated with the latest advisories from the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Additionally, visitors are encouraged to be aware of the emergency response procedures and participate in safety drills when possible.

  • 4-4. Impacts of Climate Change on Seismic Activity

  • Research from MIT indicates that climate change, particularly heavy snowfall and rain, may contribute to the initiation and intensification of earthquake swarms. Studies focused on Japan's Noto Peninsula have shown that the timing of intense precipitation events correlates with the start of earthquake swarms, suggesting that environmental factors might play a secondary role in affecting seismic activity. This new understanding highlights the complex interplay between climate conditions and tectonic movements, and it underscores the importance of considering climate impacts in earthquake preparedness strategies.

5. Government’s Response and Infrastructure

  • 5-1. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Leadership

  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took decisive actions following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on Aug 8, 2024, by canceling a planned trip to Central Asia. He stayed in the country to lead the government's response after a "megaquake advisory" was issued, warning citizens of the increased likelihood of a massive earthquake triggered by the Nankai Trough.

  • 5-2. Disaster Preparedness Infrastructure

  • The Japanese government has robust disaster preparedness infrastructure. Following the recent seismic activities, government measures included reviewing disaster response measures and evacuation plans for the 707 municipalities at risk from a Nankai Trough quake. The Fire and Disaster Management Agency advised these municipalities to implement necessary precautions swiftly.

  • 5-3. Public Safety Measures and Education

  • Public safety measures were promptly introduced. The issuance of the first-ever megaquake advisory prompted local government offices, rail operators, and other agencies to start introducing precautionary measures. For example, rail companies in the affected regions slightly reduced train speeds as a cautionary measure. Educational campaigns emphasized the importance of routine quake preparedness.

  • 5-4. Building Codes and Technological Advances

  • Japan's stringent building codes and technological advances in construction have been instrumental in mitigating damages during earthquakes. Buildings are designed to withstand significant seismic activities, minimizing casualties and structural damages. Areas such as the Noto Peninsula, which experienced severe damage during the January 1, 2024 earthquake, benefit from rapid restoration efforts. Transportation services quickly resumed in many regions, with the Noto Railway reopening fully by April 6, 2024.

6. Conclusion

  • The report underscores Japan's dual status as both an attractive tourist destination and a region vulnerable to seismic activity. The Japan Meteorological Agency's issuance of a 'megaquake advisory' marks a significant development, highlighting the elevated risk of large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. Despite these risks, Japan's advanced infrastructure, rigorous building codes, and comprehensive disaster preparedness strategies offer substantial mitigation, ensuring a considerable degree of safety for both residents and tourists. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's proactive stance on disaster preparedness further emphasizes the importance of vigilance and readiness. Nonetheless, the limitations of predicting seismic events and the potential impacts of climate change on tectonic activity signal the need for ongoing research and enhanced preparedness. Moving forward, the integration of advanced warning systems and educational campaigns will be crucial in balancing tourism growth with public safety. For travelers, staying informed about seismic advisories and adhering to safety protocols are essential steps to enjoying a secure and enriching visit to Japan.

7. Glossary

  • 7-1. Japan Meteorological Agency [Organization]

  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is responsible for monitoring and issuing warnings about weather and seismic activity. The agency recently issued its first-ever 'megaquake advisory,' highlighting the increased risk of a significant earthquake in the Nankai Trough region, which has broad implications for disaster preparedness and public safety.

  • 7-2. Nankai Trough [Geological Feature]

  • The Nankai Trough is a notorious seismic zone off the coast of Japan with a history of producing significant earthquakes. Recent advisories suggest a heightened probability of earthquakes in this area, posing critical risks to both residents and travelers in the region.

  • 7-3. Fumio Kishida [Person]

  • Prime Minister of Japan who has taken an active role in disaster preparedness. Kishida canceled a planned trip to oversee the country's response to recent seismic activities, demonstrating the government's priority on maintaining public safety and preparedness.

  • 7-4. Tourism in Japan [Economic Activity]

  • Japan has seen a significant increase in tourism due to the historic decline of the yen, making it an affordable destination for international travelers. The country's blend of traditional and modern attractions continues to draw visitors, despite the ongoing risks of natural disasters.

8. Source Documents