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Political Polarization in the USA: Analysis of Recent Events and Figures

GOOVER DAILY REPORT August 10, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Assassination Threats and Attempts on Political Figures
  3. Kamala Harris: Political Rise and Challenges
  4. Joe Biden’s Decision Not to Seek Reelection
  5. Campaign Dynamics in Battleground States
  6. Public Trust and Reaction to Political and Security Events
  7. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report ‘Political Polarization in the USA: Analysis of Recent Events and Figures’ examines the polarizing events and figures shaping the current political landscape in the United States. It delves into high-profile assassination attempts, focusing on threats against Donald Trump, and the criticism this has attracted towards the Secret Service. It also outlines Kamala Harris’s political journey, including her challenges and achievements as Vice President and her bid for the presidency following Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election. Additionally, the report reviews the strategies employed by Democrats and Republicans in battleground states and gauges public sentiment towards security agencies and political events. Key findings reflect the deep divisions within American society, shifting political strategies, and the evolving public trust dynamics concerning the Secret Service and broader democratic processes.

2. Assassination Threats and Attempts on Political Figures

  • 2-1. Recent Attempt on Donald Trump by Michael Sandford

  • At a rally in Las Vegas during Donald Trump's political career, Michael Sandford attempted to assassinate him. The Secret Service was aware of a threat at Trump's Pennsylvania rally 20 minutes before the incident, indicating potential security oversights. Sandford's attempt is reminiscent of Lee Harvey Oswald, the assassin of John F. Kennedy, suggesting that even high-profile figures are vulnerable to such threats despite constitutional laws prohibiting them. The average elected United States executive chairman receives around 3,000 death threats annually.

  • 2-2. Senators’ Interrogation of Secret Service and FBI Failures

  • Senators from the Senate Judiciary Committee and Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee interrogated FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate and Secret Service Acting Director Ronald Rowe regarding security lapses at Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The interrogation highlighted the failure of the Secret Service's drone due to poor cell service, poor communication, and strategic mistakes including misassigned personnel and non-functional equipment. Additional concerns included why information about the shooter wasn't communicated to the Secret Service, suggesting significant communication breakdowns between local law enforcement and federal agencies.

  • 2-3. Public Confidence in Secret Service’s Protective Capabilities

  • A new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that public confidence in the Secret Service is low following the assassination attempt on Trump. Only about 3 in 10 Americans are confident in their ability to keep presidential candidates safe, with 7 in 10 believing the Secret Service bears moderate responsibility for the assassination attempt. The resignation of director Kimberly Cheatle following the incident has only increased scrutiny on the agency. The poll indicates a profound distrust among the public, with many Americans attributing the incident to failures of the Secret Service, local law enforcement, and increased political division within the country.

3. Kamala Harris: Political Rise and Challenges

  • 3-1. Breaking Barriers and Securing Presidential Nomination

  • Kamala Harris, currently serving as Vice President of the United States, has broken numerous barriers in her political career. In 2017, she became the first Indian American senator after being inaugurated. She later became California's first female and South Asian attorney general. Her journey continued as she became the first woman to serve as Vice President of the United States, also being the first Black or Asian American in the position. In 2024, Harris secured enough delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her. If Harris wins the general election against former President Donald Trump, she would become the first woman president of the United States.

  • 3-2. Challenges Faced as Vice President

  • Kamala Harris has faced significant challenges during her tenure as Vice President. Her 2020 presidential bid saw a lack of momentum and eventual dropout by December 2019. As Vice President, she faced criticism for policy mishandling and low approval ratings. Harris’s tenure saw early missteps, such as a controversial interview with NBC's Lester Holt regarding the border visit, and turnover in her staff. Despite these challenges, she found her footing by addressing key issues like reproductive rights, gun safety, and advocating for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

  • 3-3. Endorsements and Campaign Dynamics with Tim Walz

  • Harris has received endorsements from President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama, among other key Democrats, after Biden’s decision not to seek re-election. She selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, a choice praised by both progressive and moderate factions within the Democratic Party. Nancy Pelosi and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison have publicly supported Walz's selection highlighting his leadership qualities. The campaign is focused on battleground states and presents a united front with public appearances and rallies emphasizing their complementary strengths.

  • 3-4. Public Perception and Criticism

  • Kamala Harris has been both praised and criticized throughout her career. She has been a target of sexist and racist attacks, particularly from right-wing figures like Donald Trump. Her mixed legacy in criminal justice as California's Attorney General has been a point of criticism, with contradictions in her policies on issues such as the death penalty and police reform. Despite this, Harris has been recognized for her forceful political stands on issues important to younger voters, like abortion rights and gun control. Public perception remains divided, reflecting broader societal and political polarization.

4. Joe Biden’s Decision Not to Seek Reelection

  • 4-1. Announcement and Reasons for Stepping Down

  • In an address to the nation from the Oval Office on a Wednesday night, President Joe Biden announced that he would not seek reelection. Biden emphasized his intention to 'pass the torch to a new generation,' highlighting the importance of saving democracy over personal ambition. This decision was partly influenced by his age and health, as he noted the importance of stepping aside for someone more capable of effectively countering former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election.

  • 4-2. Impact on Democratic Campaign Strategy

  • Biden's decision not to run for a second term has significant implications for the Democratic campaign strategy. With Biden stepping down, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken over as the primary candidate for the Democrats. This shift aims to reconcile internal party support and appeal to a broader electorate, particularly swing voters in battleground states. Biden’s move is seen as a tactical adjustment to present a more vigorous and unified front against the Republican challenger.

  • 4-3. Public and Political Reactions

  • The public and political reactions to Biden's announcement have been mixed. Despite Biden's record of legislative accomplishments, the public perception of his presidency has been largely underwhelming. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed that only 43% of respondents viewed Biden favorably. Among independents, this number dropped to 38%, and only 10% of Republicans viewed him positively. However, some Democrats have expressed relief and optimism, noting Vice President Harris's initial campaign efforts as energetic and coherent. This moment marks the beginning of Biden's legacy review, with historical perspectives on his presidency yet to solidify.

5. Campaign Dynamics in Battleground States

  • 5-1. Strategies in Rust Belt and Sun Belt Regions

  • The recent presidential campaign has seen intense competition across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt regions. With Kamala Harris selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, the Democratic campaign has targeted critical Rust Belt states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to maintain the 'Blue Wall'. These states are essential for a Democratic victory, especially in light of President Biden's withdrawal from the race due to his poor performance in the June debate. Kamala Harris aims to leverage her appeal to build multiracial coalitions, particularly in states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. This move has forced both parties to reshape their electoral strategies. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, alongside his vice-presidential pick, Ohio Senator JD Vance, aims to solidify support among working-class voters and carry forward the momentum after surviving an assassination attempt before the Republican National Convention. Trump’s campaign strategy involves tapping into the energy and confidence stemming from this close call to potentially achieve a sweeping victory across multiple states.

  • 5-2. Competing Rallies and Public Sentiment in Atlanta

  • Former President Donald Trump held a significant rally at Georgia State University's Convocation Center, marking his first campaign appearance in Georgia since the Democratic primary shift. The event underscored Trump's approach and messaging as he engages in a tight race against Kamala Harris in this key battleground state. The rally drew substantial attendance and served as a platform for Trump to critique Harris and reinforce his electoral strategy. Concurrently, the public sentiment in Atlanta reflects a polarized political atmosphere, with strong support for both candidates amidst an evolving and diverse electorate.

  • 5-3. Secessionist Sentiments in Texas

  • The political climate in Texas has been notably influenced by secessionist sentiments, especially following Kamala Harris’s ascension as the Democratic presidential nominee. Daniel Miller, leader of the Texas Nationalist Movement, posits that a Harris victory would significantly fuel the secessionist movement, or 'Texit.' According to Miller, Harris’s policies on immigration and climate change exacerbate the desire for independence among Texans. A recent poll reveals that around 31% of Texans support secession, reflecting widespread discontent with federal policies perceived as detrimental to Texas’s economic and social values. Miller has expressed that under Harris's administration, the Texit movement could see a remarkable surge in support, pushing Texas closer to a potential referendum on independence, despite constitutional constraints.

6. Public Trust and Reaction to Political and Security Events

  • 6-1. Public Distrust in Secret Service Post-Assassination Attempt

  • Following the gun attack on Donald Trump last month, confidence in the Secret Service has significantly decreased. According to a poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, only about 3 in 10 Americans feel extremely or very confident in the Secret Service’s capability to safeguard presidential candidates. The same poll indicates that approximately 7 in 10 Americans believe the Secret Service bears at least a moderate level of responsibility for the attempt on Trump's life. This scrutiny has been intensified after the resignation of Kimberly Cheatle, the former director of the Secret Service, who faced tough questions during a congressional hearing. Acting Director Ronald Rowe has expressed regret and shame over the incident. The poll also highlights that political division is believed by half of Americans to play a significant role in the incident, with differences in attributing blame across political lines. Republicans are more likely to hold the Secret Service responsible, while Democrats point to the widespread availability of guns. Notably, local law enforcement in Pennsylvania is also viewed by about half of Americans as moderately responsible for the attack. Only about one-third of Americans are confident in the Department of Homeland Security's ability to conduct a full and fair investigation into the assassination attempt.

  • 6-2. Senate Discussions on EV Growth Amid Political Divisions

  • Political divisions in the U.S. have led to a complicated discourse concerning the growth of the electric vehicle (EV) industry. Despite an 11.3% increase in EV sales in Q2 2024, reaching a record high of 330,463 units, debates among political leaders continue to obfuscate this success. Late July saw a Senate Budget Committee session, led by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), discussing the potential for the U.S. to boost EV manufacturing to capitalize on the growing market and compete globally. Graham emphasized that states like South Carolina, leading in vehicle assembly and tire export, could benefit substantially from being at the forefront of EV production. However, opposition from Republicans questions President Joe Biden’s target of 50% EVs in total car sales by 2030, citing concerns about the electrical grid’s capacity and international competition. Former President Donald Trump shared his skepticism, criticizing the Biden administration's support for EVs and suggesting instead to open U.S. manufacturing to Chinese automakers. The political stalemate extends into the House of Representatives, where Republicans have been criticized for engaging in unproductive debates and failing to support substantial green energy policies, which exacerbates misinformation and public confusion concerning the advantages and viability of EVs.

7. Conclusion

  • This report underscores the profound political polarization and dynamic shifts in the U.S. political arena. Key findings, such as the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and significant security lapses by the Secret Service, reveal critical vulnerabilities in protecting political figures. Kamala Harris’s rise to the presidential nomination, endorsed by Joe Biden after his withdrawal, symbolizes a generational and strategic shift within the Democratic Party aimed at unity and broader electoral appeal. Public trust in security agencies is notably low, exacerbating concerns about their effectiveness amid increasing political violence. The divisive responses to electric vehicle policies further highlight the clash of ideologies pervading American politics. To address these complex issues, future efforts must focus on enhancing security protocols, fostering unity, and bridging ideological divides to stabilize the political landscape and restore public confidence in democratic institutions and processes.

8. Glossary

  • 8-1. Donald Trump [Person]

  • Former President of the United States, subject of assassination threats, current candidate in the 2024 presidential elections.

  • 8-2. Kamala Harris [Person]

  • Vice President of the United States, Democratic presidential candidate, known for breaking barriers as the first female and person of color in her positions.

  • 8-3. Joe Biden [Person]

  • Current President of the United States, announced decision not to seek re-election, endorsing Kamala Harris.

  • 8-4. Michael Sandford [Person]

  • Individual who attempted to assassinate Donald Trump, highlighting issues with Secret Service protocols.

  • 8-5. Secret Service [Organization]

  • Responsible for the protection of presidential figures, recently criticized for security failures during assassination attempts.

  • 8-6. Tim Walz [Person]

  • Minnesota Governor, Kamala Harris’s running mate, praised for leadership and centrist approach within the Democratic campaign.

  • 8-7. JD Vance [Person]

  • Ohio Senator, Donald Trump’s running mate, known for extreme anti-abortion stance, central political figure in Trump's campaign.

9. Source Documents