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Analysis of Qualcomm Stock Price Predictions and Influencing Factors

GOOVER DAILY REPORT July 13, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Short-Term Stock Price Predictions for Qualcomm
  3. Long-Term Stock Price Predictions for Qualcomm
  4. Influence of Market Trends and Technological Developments
  5. Qualcomm’s Competitive Landscape and Industry Position
  6. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report "Analysis of Qualcomm Stock Price Predictions and Influencing Factors" explores the projections for Qualcomm's stock price in both the short and long term, examining the crucial factors impacting these forecasts. Key sections cover short-term price fluctuations between July 30, 2024, and August 13, 2024, noting a general downward trend. Long-term predictions extend up to 2026 with an expected positive trajectory, suggesting the stock could reach 211.267 USD. The analysis incorporates earnings revisions, technical analyses, and market trends, highlighting the role of Qualcomm's strategic developments and industry competition. Noteworthy is the influence of the upcoming Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 chip and ongoing legal disputes with Arm, balanced by collaborative ventures that continue to maintain Qualcomm's robust market presence.

2. Short-Term Stock Price Predictions for Qualcomm

  • 2-1. Stock Price Fluctuations: July 30, 2024 to August 13, 2024

  • The provided forecast for Qualcomm's stock price shows the following fluctuations between July 30, 2024, and August 13, 2024: On Tuesday, July 30, the predicted stock price is 207.67 dollars, with a maximum of 224.28 dollars and a minimum of 191.06 dollars. On Wednesday, July 31, the forecasted stock price is 202.70 dollars, with a maximum of 218.92 dollars and a minimum of 186.48 dollars. On Thursday, August 1, the stock is predicted to be 204.04 dollars, with a maximum of 220.36 dollars and a minimum of 187.72 dollars. By Friday, August 2, the forecast is 193.84 dollars, with a maximum of 209.35 dollars and a minimum of 178.33 dollars. On Monday, August 5, the stock price is expected to be 191.20 dollars, with a maximum of 206.50 dollars and a minimum of 175.90 dollars. On Tuesday, August 6, the stock price is forecasted to be 181.64 dollars, with a maximum of 196.17 dollars and a minimum of 167.11 dollars. For Wednesday, August 7, the prediction remains 181.64 dollars, with a maximum of 196.17 dollars and a minimum of 167.11 dollars. On Thursday, August 8, the stock price is forecasted to be 185.62 dollars, with a maximum of 200.47 dollars and a minimum of 170.77 dollars. By Friday, August 9, the forecast is 191.56 dollars, with a maximum of 206.88 dollars and a minimum of 176.24 dollars. On Monday, August 12, the predicted stock price is 189.38 dollars, with a maximum of 204.53 dollars and a minimum of 174.23 dollars. Finally, on Tuesday, August 13, the stock price is expected to be 191.51 dollars, with a maximum of 206.83 dollars and a minimum of 176.19 dollars.

  • 2-2. Trend Analysis and Key Dates

  • Analyzing the provided stock price predictions for Qualcomm between July 30, 2024, and August 13, 2024, a noticeable downward trend can be identified. The initial forecast on July 30 places the stock at 207.67 dollars, peaking within the range of 224.28 dollars to 191.06 dollars. However, by August 13, the predicted price drops to 191.51 dollars, with the maximum and minimum values converging to a narrower band of 206.83 dollars to 176.19 dollars. Key dates to note within this period include significant price dips on August 2, where the stock is forecasted to fall to 193.84 dollars, and a critical low on August 6 and August 7, both seeing predictions at 181.64 dollars.

3. Long-Term Stock Price Predictions for Qualcomm

  • 3-1. Annual Forecasts up to 2026

  • According to the document 'Qualcomm Stock Forecast: up to 211.267 USD! - QCOM Stock Price Prediction, Long-Term & Short-Term Share Revenue Prognosis with Smart Technical Analysis', the stock price predictions for Qualcomm (QCOM) extend through the years up to 2026. Specific forecasts for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are provided, detailing the anticipated opening and closing prices, minimum and maximum prices, and expected changes. The forecast indicates a positive trend with predictions that the stock price could reach up to 211.267 USD by 2026.

  • 3-2. Technical Analysis and Earnings Projections

  • The referenced document emphasizes the importance of technical analysis and earnings projections in forecasting Qualcomm's stock price. Using smart technical analysis, it predicts stock price movements and revenue projections for the short and long term. The accuracy of these predictions is supported by historical data and patterns. The earnings projections consider several influencing factors such as market dynamics, technological advancements, and Qualcomm's strategic developments within the competitive semiconductor industry.

4. Influence of Market Trends and Technological Developments

  • 4-1. Empirical Studies on Earnings Estimate Revisions

  • Empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements. For the current quarter, Qualcomm is expected to post earnings of $2.25 per share, indicating a change of +20.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.1% over the last 30 days. The consensus earnings estimate of $9.90 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +17.4%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.98 indicates a change of +11% from what Qualcomm is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged. Qualcomm is rated Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting a positive outlook based on these revised earnings estimates.

  • 4-2. Impact of New Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 Chip on Market Dynamics

  • The Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 chip is set to push into production in the second half of 2024, with Samsung being among the primary clients expected to use this next-generation SoC in their devices. The new chip is expected to boast better AI processing capabilities compared to its predecessor, the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3. However, the advancements in the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 may lead to higher manufacturing costs, potentially causing price hikes for upcoming devices such as the Galaxy S25. Industry watchers predict an estimated increase of 25-30% in the cost of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 compared to the Gen 3 due to its manufacturing on the 3nm N3E process by TSMC.

5. Qualcomm’s Competitive Landscape and Industry Position

  • 5-1. Legal Disputes and Collaborative Ventures

  • According to the document titled 'Arm wants to destroy all Copilot+ PCs, here’s why' from Windows Central, the legal dispute between Qualcomm and Arm has been ongoing for two years without an injunction impacting Qualcomm. The likelihood of Copilot+ PC shipments being halted is considered low. The document suggests a potential settlement between Qualcomm and Arm. Despite the dispute, both companies continue to collaborate on various projects, indicating a significant mutual interest in maintaining their working relationship for profitable outcomes.

  • 5-2. Influence of Copilot+ PC Shipments

  • The referenced document also addresses the influence of Copilot+ PC shipments on Qualcomm's competitive landscape. Given the absence of an injunction, Copilot+ PC shipments are not expected to stop, ensuring that Qualcomm remains a significant player in the market. This continuous shipment, despite the legal battle with Arm, illustrates Qualcomm's robust position and its ability to navigate through legal challenges while maintaining product availability and market influence.

6. Conclusion

  • The analysis underscores the intricate dynamics influencing Qualcomm’s stock price. Short-term predictions highlight a noticeable decline over a two-week period, attributing fluctuations to market conditions and empirical data on earnings estimate revisions. In the long term, positive trends up to 2026 offer an optimistic view, supported by technical analysis and strategic developments. The significance of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 chip in advancing AI capabilities and affecting manufacturing costs is emphasized. Despite legal challenges with Arm, Qualcomm's effectiveness in collaborations bolsters its competitive edge. Limitations include the inherent uncertainty of market conditions and potential impacts of unresolved disputes. Future prospects suggest a focus on technological innovation and strategic alliances, presenting Qualcomm as both resilient and forward-looking. Practical application of these findings can aid investors and market analysts in making informed decisions regarding Qualcomm's stock.

7. Glossary

  • 7-1. Qualcomm [Company]

  • Qualcomm Incorporated is an American multinational corporation known for designing and marketing wireless telecommunications products and services. It is a significant player in the semiconductor and technology industry, pivotal for its developments in wireless technology and mobile chipsets.

  • 7-2. Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 [Technology]

  • The Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 is an upcoming advanced mobile chipset developed by Qualcomm, expected to offer enhanced AI capabilities and superior performance. It is anticipated to influence manufacturing costs and consequently, the pricing of devices like the Samsung Galaxy S25.

  • 7-3. Earnings Estimate Revisions [Technical term]

  • Earnings estimate revisions refer to changes made by analysts in their projections for a company's future earnings. Positive revisions are often correlated with upward stock price movements, while negative revisions can indicate potential declines.

8. Source Documents