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Philippines' Stance on the South China Sea Dispute: A Comprehensive Analysis of Recent Developments and Strategic Responses

GOOVER DAILY REPORT July 18, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Challenges and Incidents in the West Philippine Sea
  3. Philippines' Diplomatic and Legal Actions
  4. Defense and Military Enhancements
  5. Public Sentiment and Advocacy
  6. International Reactions and Support
  7. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • This report, titled 'Philippines' Stance on the South China Sea Dispute: A Comprehensive Analysis of Recent Developments and Strategic Responses,' delves into the Philippines' recent actions and positions on the escalating tensions in the South China Sea, particularly those involving China. It covers various aspects, including the defensive measures taken by the Philippine government, diplomatic initiatives, alliances with other nations, and public sentiment towards the dispute. Critical elements include the challenges posed by Chinese aggression, the decrease in Chinese vessel presence in the West Philippine Sea, specific incidents like the Escoda Shoal standoff and medical evacuation obstruction, and the Philippines’ legal and diplomatic pursuits to uphold sovereignty. The report also highlights defense and military collaborations with allies such as the United States and Japan, and the significance of the Arbitral Award and its implications. Additionally, public advocacy and international support play crucial roles in maintaining the Philippines' stance and strategic responses to the ongoing conflict.

2. Challenges and Incidents in the West Philippine Sea

  • 2-1. Chinese Hypersonic Missile Threats

  • Senator Imee R. Marcos has expressed concerns about a potential Chinese hypersonic missile attack targeting 25 areas in the Philippines. While she emphasized that China would not attack without reason, she raised the potential for violence in case of an accident or mistake at sea. This fear follows the increased militarization and tensions in the West Philippine Sea related to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca) sites. The National Security Council clarified that there is no imminent threat of attack from China, maintaining that the Philippines and China have cordial relations.

  • 2-2. Decreased Chinese Vessel Presence

  • According to Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad of the Philippine Navy, there has been a notable decrease in the number of Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea. Over the past few weeks, the Navy observed a reduction from 129 vessels to numbers fluctuating around the mid-90s. This decline might be attributed to the bilateral consultation mechanism convened earlier in the month, although definitive conclusions cannot be drawn. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) continues rotating resupply missions and maritime air surveillance while adhering to international law to de-escalate tensions.

  • 2-3. Escoda Shoal Standoff

  • The Escoda (Sabina) Shoal has become a significant point of tension between the Philippines and China. The largest Chinese coast guard ship, nicknamed 'The Monster,' has anchored at the shoal and has not vacated despite constant radio reminders from the Philippine Coast Guard's BRP Teresa Magbanua that it is inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The standoff highlights the ongoing maritime conflict, with both vessels maintaining their positions at the shoal. The presence of these massive vessels underscores the heightening tensions and China's aggressive maritime actions.

  • 2-4. Medical Evacuation Obstruction

  • The National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea criticized China's claim that it allowed the medical evacuation of a sick Philippine Navy personnel as 'ridiculous.' The evacuation faced numerous obstructing maneuvers from Chinese Coast Guard vessels, resulting in significant delays. Despite these challenges, the evacuation was successfully carried out by the Philippine Coast Guard, and the sick personnel received urgent medical attention. This incident underscores China's low regard for humanitarian missions and highlights ongoing illegal deployments of Chinese vessels within the Philippines' EEZ.

3. Philippines' Diplomatic and Legal Actions

  • 3-1. Commitment to Peace and Sovereignty

  • On July 12, 2024, marking the 8th anniversary of the landmark 2016 Arbitral Award, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo emphasized the country's unwavering commitment to peace despite China's unlawful actions in the South China Sea. The landmark ruling affirmed the Philippines' rights over its exclusive economic zone, rejecting China's extensive nine-dash line claim. In his statement, Manalo reiterated the Philippines' dedication to the rule of law and the peaceful settlement of disputes, highlighting continued international support for the ruling. This commitment has been consistent, even in the face of escalated confrontations and serious incidents caused by Chinese aggression.

  • 3-2. Arbitral Awards and Legal Petitions

  • The 2016 Arbitral Award invalidated China's nine-dash line claim and addressed the harassment of Philippine vessels as well as environmental damage caused by China's island-building activities. Despite this, the Philippines faced challenges in enforcing the ruling due to previous administrations' policies. Under the current administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines has strengthened its stance, leading to more frequent and intense confrontations with China. Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad of the Philippine Navy expressed full support for filing new petitions against China at the United Nations in response to ongoing harassment, advocating that disputes should be settled through legal channels.

  • 3-3. Proposals for New Arbitral Cases

  • Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad and former Supreme Court Justice Francis Jardeleza have endorsed filing new arbitral cases against China for environmental destruction in seven reefs caused by China's land reclamation and construction activities. Jardeleza highlighted that the 2016 arbitral tribunal already established China's responsibility for severe and irreparable harm to coral reef systems, emphasizing that further legal actions are warranted to address these violations. The current administration is contemplating these new petitions to reinforce the Philippines' legal stance against Chinese aggression.

  • 3-4. International Recognition of July 12 as WPS Victory Day

  • On July 12, 2024, various groups and officials in the Philippines, including Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela and Senator Risa Hontiveros, celebrated the anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award. Hontiveros continues to advocate for the declaration of July 12 as West Philippine Sea Victory Day to commemorate the legal triumph over China's nine-dash line claim and to assert the Philippines' sovereignty. She emphasized the importance of international unity and adherence to a rules-based order to counter ongoing threats and intimidation by China. The celebration serves as a reminder of the Philippines' legal victory and the need for collective international action to maintain peace and security.

4. Defense and Military Enhancements

  • 4-1. Importance of Defense Cooperation

  • The Philippines recognizes the crucial role of defense cooperation in addressing the escalating tensions in the South China Sea. Key alliances with countries like the United States and Japan have been instrumental in strengthening the Philippines' defense capabilities. This collaboration is vital for maintaining regional security and deterring aggressive actions from other nations, particularly China. The establishment of these cooperative agreements not only enhances military readiness but also provides a framework for joint operations and training, thereby improving interoperability among allied forces.

  • 4-2. Japan-Philippines Defense Pact

  • The Philippines and Japan are on the verge of finalizing a key defense pact that will allow the deployment of troops on each other’s territory. This agreement, known as the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), has been in negotiation since November and aims to deepen the defense ties between the two nations. The pact is seen as essential for enhancing interoperability and security partnerships, especially within the US hub and spokes network. The signing of this agreement was witnessed by Philippine President Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr., highlighting its significance. The pact is expected to bolster the Philippines' defense posture in response to China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

  • 4-3. Continued Defense Collaboration with the U.S.

  • The defense relationship between the Philippines and the United States remains robust, aimed at countering China's growing military influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States has been instrumental in providing defense equipment and conducting joint military exercises with the Philippines. A notable instance of such collaboration was the trilateral summit involving the United States, Japan, and the Philippines, which focused on boosting defense ties. This collaboration is further solidified by the frequent holding of joint military drills and the provision of advanced defense equipment by the U.S. This defense cooperation framework is fundamental in maintaining regional stability and ensuring the Philippines' defense capabilities remain robust against any potential threats.

  • 4-4. Recommendations on Naval Strengthening

  • In recent months, there have been multiple recommendations for strengthening the Philippine Navy's capabilities to better address the maritime challenges posed by China. Analysts have emphasized the need for the Philippines to bolster its naval fleet, particularly its surface combatants, to ensure a continuous and effective presence in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad pointed out that while China's naval technology is advanced, it may take decades for China to perfect its aircraft carrier-based warfare capabilities. In light of these assessments, enhancing the operational readiness and multi-domain capabilities of the Philippine Navy is considered crucial. This includes developing doctrines and ensuring resource sustainability for long-term naval effectiveness.

5. Public Sentiment and Advocacy

  • 5-1. Public Rallies and Demonstrations

  • On July 12, 2024, members of the 'Atin Ito!' Coalition and progressive group, Akbayan, led a rally commemorating 'West Philippine Sea Day' at the Boy Scouts Circle in Quezon City. This event highlighted the public's awareness and active engagement in asserting the Philippines' sovereignty over the West Philippine Sea. The rally underscored the national sentiment against Chinese aggression and the ongoing struggle to uphold the country's maritime rights.

  • 5-2. Calls for Floating Hospitals

  • Senate Majority Leader Francis Tolentino has proposed the creation of a floating hospital for the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard. This initiative aims to ensure timely medical assistance for soldiers and fisherfolk navigating the high seas. Tolentino highlighted the necessity of this proposal by citing instances where injured personnel needed immediate attention, which a floating hospital could have provided more efficiently. This proposal reflects the heightened awareness and preparation for potential maritime incidents amid rising tensions in the West Philippine Sea.

  • 5-3. Pushback Against Chinese Aggression

  • National Security Adviser Eduardo Año has reiterated the Philippines' commitment to counter Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea. Despite the 2016 arbitral ruling invalidating China's nine-dash-line claim, China has increased its presence in Philippine waters. Año emphasized the government's stance to 'stand our ground' against coercion and violations of sovereignty, citing incidents such as the aggressive actions of the China Coast Guard against Filipino troops during resupply missions. This pushback is crucial in maintaining the security and stability of the region.

  • 5-4. Celebration of Legal Victories

  • The Philippines commemorates 'West Philippine Sea Victory Day' on July 12 to celebrate the landmark arbitral ruling in 2016. This day symbolizes the nation's legal victory over China's expansive maritime claims, boosting the morale of the Filipino people. Local and national celebrations, such as rallies and fluvial protests, signify the collective effort to uphold the ruling. Moreover, this day serves as a reminder of the need for continued vigilance and international support in protecting the Philippines' sovereign rights.

6. International Reactions and Support

  • 6-1. US and EU Statements

  • The United States has consistently urged China to cease its aggressive actions in the South China Sea. During the 8th anniversary of the arbitration ruling, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed deep concern about China's expansive maritime claims, emphasizing that they clearly infringe on the jurisdictions of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. In a recent forum in Manila, U.S. Ambassador MaryKay Carlson reiterated the appeal, stating that China's actions jeopardize regional stability and contravene international norms. The Biden administration's efforts to fortify a network of security alliances, in alignment with the Philippines' enhanced territorial defense under President Ferdinand Marcos, were highlighted as crucial steps to counter Beijing's assertiveness. The European Union has similarly expressed concerns and emphasized the importance of adhering to international law to maintain peace and stability in the region.

  • 6-2. Support from International Allies

  • International support for the Philippines has been robust, especially from key allies like Japan, Australia, Canada, and France. At an anniversary event for the arbitral ruling, various ambassadors underscored their countries' opposition to China's aggressive tactics. Japanese Ambassador Kazuya Endo affirmed Japan's commitment to regional peace, citing Japan’s provision of patrol ships and a coastal radar system to help the Philippines protect its territorial claims. Australian Ambassador HK Yu condemned the recent hostilities by Chinese forces and committed Australia’s unwavering support to the Philippines. Canadian Ambassador David Hartman also pledged continued cooperation, highlighting the need to uphold maritime laws. French Ambassador Marie Fontanel stressed the significance of the 2016 arbitral award and the mutual benefits of upholding sovereignty and environmental protection.

  • 6-3. Efforts to Establish a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea

  • Despite the persistent tensions, efforts to establish a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea have been ongoing. These efforts aim to create a diplomatic framework to mitigate conflicts and regulate activities in the disputed waters. National Security Adviser Eduardo Año emphasized the importance of international solidarity and adherence to the arbitral ruling as a means of ensuring peace and stability. The collective push for a COC by ASEAN nations and their allies represents a strategic move to counter unilateral actions by China and maintain a stable and rule-based maritime order.

7. Conclusion

  • The Philippines remains resolute in defending its sovereignty over the West Philippine Sea despite ongoing challenges from Chinese aggression. The country's emphasis on peaceful resolutions, grounded in the 2016 Arbitral Award, underscores the importance of international law in its approach. Notorious incidents, such as the Escoda Shoal standoff and medical evacuation obstruction, highlight the continuing tensions and the Philippines' firm responses. The support from international allies like the United States, Japan, and the EU offers a significant boost to the Philippines' defensive posture. However, the report notes limitations, including the complexities in enforcing the Arbitral Award and the need for sustained international collaboration to uphold maritime laws and stability in the region. Looking forward, the proposed new arbitral cases against China and defense pacts like the Reciprocal Access Agreement indicate a proactive strategy. Moreover, public sentiment and advocacy, evident through rallies and calls for initiatives such as floating hospitals, reflect a unified national stance. The future prospect of establishing a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea remains vital for ensuring long-term peace and asserting the Philippines' maritime rights effectively.

8. Glossary

  • 8-1. West Philippine Sea [Geopolitical Area]

  • The West Philippine Sea is part of the South China Sea within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone. It is a strategic and contested region, vital for national security and maritime resources. This report underscores its significance in the context of international law, sovereignty disputes, and regional cooperation.

  • 8-2. Arbitral Award [Legal Term]

  • This refers to the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favor of the Philippines, which invalidated China's 'nine-dash line' claims in the South China Sea. It is a cornerstone in the Philippines' legal and diplomatic defense, reinforcing maritime entitlements under UNCLOS.

  • 8-3. Escoda Shoal [Geographical Location]

  • A significant location within the Philippine EEZ where recent standoffs between Philippine and Chinese coast guards have occurred. Its strategic importance and the presence of vast maritime resources make it a hotspot for territorial disputes.

  • 8-4. Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) [Bilateral Agreement]

  • A defense pact between the Philippines and Japan enabling troop deployments on each other's territories. It aims to enhance regional security cooperation and counter Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. This agreement signifies deepening defense ties within the US-led security framework in Asia.

  • 8-5. BRP Teresa Magbanua [Maritime Vessel]

  • One of the largest Philippine Coast Guard vessels, it plays a critical role in asserting sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea amid Chinese maritime aggression. Its presence symbolizes the Philippines’ commitment to maintaining its territorial waters.

9. Source Documents