Impacts and Dynamics of the Russo-Ukrainian War

1. Summary

• The report titled 'Impacts and Dynamics of the Russo-Ukrainian War' delves into various dimensions of the ongoing conflict, including geopolitical impacts, key players' roles, and potential outcomes. It examines the strategic stability involving the US/NATO and Russia, the effects on international alliances, the role of nuclear threats, and the economic and military partnerships between Russia and both China and Iran. Key findings highlight the challenges in resolving the conflict, such as entrenched positions, political opposition, and public sentiment. The complex interactions among various entities, including the United Nations Security Council, underscore the importance of strategic diplomacy and stability. The report also outlines possible future trajectories for Russia, emphasizing growing dependency on China, and highlights NATO's strategic adjustments and implications for European security resulting from the war.

2. Strategic Implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War

• 2-1. Potential Outcomes of the Conflict

• The Russo-Ukrainian War risks following a typical pattern seen in other interstate conflicts since 1946: absent the end of fighting during the first year, conventional wars tend to last over a decade on average. The most likely endings are a frozen conflict or a cease-fire, potentially occurring sooner than a decade, and possibly, over time, a negotiated armistice. Peace treaties have become rare for all interstate wars since 1950. Although total victory or defeat for either Ukraine or Russia cannot be entirely dismissed, these are increasingly unlikely outcomes. Scenarios discussed include: • Frozen Conflict: A frozen conflict might arise if Western arms shipments diminish, undermining Ukraine’s offensive capabilities. Europe, without substantial U.S. backing, may face pressures to negotiate with Moscow, but the conditions set by Russia could be too stringent. The Ukrainian government and people may also resist settling the conflict and ceding a fifth of their territory to Russia. • Cease-Fire Agreement: Domestic fatigue in Ukraine and Russia could drive a negotiated cease-fire over time. Factors include growing scarcity of young recruits in Ukraine and public weariness of mobilizations in Russia. A mediator like Turkey might facilitate this process. • Larger East-West Conflict: Less likely but plausible is the scenario where the war escalates into a broader East-West conflict involving the U.S., NATO, Russia, and China. This could happen if Sino-U.S. tensions escalate, potentially involving Taiwan. In such a situation, Ukraine might become a pawn in a much larger geopolitical conflict. • Korean-Style Armistice: A successful armistice, taking months if not years to achieve, could bring the war to a halt with NATO backing. Current conditions make this unlikely, but lack of movement on the battlefield in the coming years might push both sides towards this resolution.

• 2-2. Challenges in Resolving the Conflict

• Resolving the Russo-Ukrainian War faces significant obstacles. Some of the key challenges include: • Entrenched Positions: Both Ukraine and Russia are far from seriously considering an end to the fighting. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, remains confident due to a stable economy despite sanctions. Ukraine, on the other hand, has continued to show resilience despite setbacks. • Political Opposition: Any potential peace treaties would require significant political negotiations and approvals that seem difficult under the current circumstances. For example, signing a peace treaty involving the U.S. would require approval by two-thirds of the U.S. Senate, an unlikely event if Putin remains in power. • Public Sentiment and Support: Growing domestic fatigue in both Ukraine and Russia could place pressure on their respective governments to seek a resolution. However, the Ukrainian government and populace are likely opposed to any settlement that cedes significant territory to Russia. • International Dynamics: Western military and political support has been crucial for Ukraine, but changing dynamics, such as potential changes in U.S. administration and military support, could impact the conflict’s trajectory and potential resolutions. • Long-Term Implications: Without a clear resolution, there is a risk that the conflict could evolve into a 'frozen conflict,' serving as a counter to NATO and EU influence in the region, as seen in past conflicts involving Russia in Moldova and Georgia.

3. Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Stability

• 3-1. Role of Nuclear Weapons in the Conflict

• Nuclear weapons have played a significant role in Russia's war in Ukraine from the onset. Russian President Vladimir Putin has routinely issued nuclear threats, signaling severe consequences if external actors attempt to interfere. This aggressive posture is aimed at deterring direct involvement from other nations and highlights the critical role of nuclear threats in the conflict. The involvement of nuclear weapons complicates the strategic stability between US/NATO and Russia, making it crucial to understand both the crisis stability and arms race stability.

• 3-2. Challenges in US/NATO-Russian Relations

• The ongoing war in Ukraine has significantly affected US/NATO-Russian strategic stability, which includes crisis stability (where neither side has an incentive to conduct a first nuclear strike) and arms race stability (where neither side augments its nuclear arsenal). The analysis reveals that horizontal escalation (the widening of conflict geographically or through allies) is easier to deter than vertical escalation (the intensification of the conflict), which is harder to gauge and contains inherent risks. Moreover, Russia considers linking the issue of bilateral arms control to geopolitical realities, complicating the New START treaty's future and other arms control agreements. The war has also led to near-term effects such as the stagnation of the Strategic Stability Dialogue (SSD) and Russia's noncompliance with the New START Treaty. In the long term, these tensions may increase Russia's reliance on its nuclear arsenal, posing significant risks to future bilateral arms control negotiations.

4. China-Russia Relations Amid the War

• 4-1. Economic and geopolitical cooperation

• On May 16 and 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a state visit to China, where he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. This visit, along with their prior meeting on the opening day of the 2022 Winter Olympics, underscored their “no limits” partnership. Despite ambiguities regarding specifics, the two nations proclaimed a reinforced collaboration across economic, geopolitical, educational, and military sectors. Bilateral trade between China and Russia rose by 26.3 percent from 2022 to 2023, reaching a record $240.1 billion. This trade growth was characterized by China purchasing vast quantities of Russian fossil fuels and selling essential products and commodities to Russia. The transactions prominently featured energy commodities worth $129 billion, including oil, gas, LNG, and coal, that constituted 73 percent of Russia's exports to China. Concurrently, China exported $111 billion worth of goods to Russia, dominated by industrial equipment, cars, and consumer electronics. Furthermore, the relationship saw significant moves in the realm of communications and media. During Putin’s visit, Russian media organizations like Russia Today signed agreements with Chinese counterparts, such as Xinhua News Agency, to hold a BRICS expert forum and share information. However, the much-anticipated Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal remained unsigned, reflecting some limitations in their economic partnership. Despite this, the relationship advanced significantly, symbolizing mutual endorsement and challenging the Western order.

• 4-2. Challenges to the Western-led order

• The China-Russia partnership has been pivotal in challenging the Western-led international order. Both nations have promoted a multipolar world, criticizing U.S. hegemony and advocating for a more equitable global structure, a stance that resonates with many developing nations in the Global South and East. The joint statement following Putin's visit to China emphasized their shared vision for a multipolar world and solidarity against Western dominance. This statement reiterated their mutual support, with Xi and Putin framing their actions in Ukraine and other regional issues as countering NATO’s expansion and promoting global stability based on their terms. China's rhetorical and economic support for Russia remained steadfast throughout the Russo-Ukrainian War. Even without providing direct lethal aid, China facilitated Russia’s war efforts by supplying commercial drones, computer chips, and critical components instrumental to the Russian defense industry. Additionally, diplomatic and elite interactions heightened, reflecting a deepening partnership that posed a significant challenge to the Western geopolitical landscape. Both nations have tactically undermined Western sanctions, with Beijing absorbing a larger share of Russia’s trade and offering a counterbalance to Western economic pressures. This collaboration included strategic military and naval exercises, further cementing their unified front against Western policies. Despite China's caution in avoiding direct conflict with Western red lines, the Beijing-Moscow alliance symbolizes a formidable axis in global politics, complicating Western efforts to maintain its influence and address the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

5. The United Nations Security Council and Geopolitical Tensions

• 5-1. Calls for Reform

• The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has once again become a focal point for international debate due to its performance and membership composition. The recurrence of high-profile failures and vetoes, such as over Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza crisis, has reignited discussions about the UNSC's functionality and the foundational U.N. Charter. Notably, there have been significant calls for the removal of Russia from its permanent seat. Key events have highlighted the pressing need for structural changes within the council. India used its 2022 G20 presidency to spotlight the case for Security Council reform, and Brazil followed suit in its term. Their advocacy primarily focuses on adding new permanent members, asserting that reform is crucial to reflect the contemporary geopolitical realities, moving away from the post-World War II power distributions. Further amplifying these calls, U.S. President Joe Biden advocated for UNSC reform in his 2022 and 2023 U.N. General Assembly addresses. This stance was bolstered by continuing U.S. diplomacy with the G4 countries (Brazil, India, Germany, and Japan) and other aspirants. These discussions emphasize hopes that new permanent members would uphold the established international order against perceived threats from Russia and China.

• 5-2. Role in De-escalation of Conflicts

• Historically, the UNSC has played a pivotal role in mitigating geopolitical tensions and preventing large-scale conflicts, especially during the Cold War period. The council served as a critical venue for resolving disputes between great powers and preventing escalation of conflicts into full-blown wars. For instance, the UNSC acted as an instrumental platform during crises such as the Berlin blockade, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Yom Kippur War, enabling the United States and Soviet Union to de-escalate tensions. This de-escalatory function of the council towards conflicted oppositions remains significant even amidst calls for membership reforms. In the post-Cold War era, the UNSC's ability to engage in conflict de-escalation has been challenged by rising distrust among its permanent members. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, its historical precedence as a mechanism for great power negotiations underscores its latent potential. The council's effectiveness has been questioned due to its inability to adequately respond to crises like those in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, suggesting that while membership expansion is a point of contention, reviving the de-escalatory function may be just as critical.

6. Russian-Iranian Relationship

• 6-1. Increased cooperation

• The war in Ukraine has significantly transformed the Russian-Iranian relationship, leading to unprecedented levels of cooperation in military, economic, and political spheres. Both countries, driven by anti-Western hardliners, have intensified their efforts to resist Western sanctions and political isolation. This cooperation includes the provision of Iranian drones to Russia, which have played a crucial role in Ukraine. Iran's military assistance to Russia, including drones and potentially other weapons systems, is a key element of this relationship. This new dynamic has shifted from a patron-client relationship to what US officials describe as a "full-fledged defense partnership." The partnership evolved rapidly post-February 2022, with Tehran's military contributions significantly aiding Russia's war efforts. The conflict has solidified Iran's position as one of Russia's most vital collaborators.

• 6-2. Implications for European security

• The evolving Russian-Iranian relationship poses direct threats to European security. The partnership may enable Russia to prolong the war in Ukraine, increase destruction, and destabilize the Middle East. Specifically, the cooperation has the potential to enhance Iran's nuclear capabilities, increase arms transfers, and threaten military escalation in Syria. Europe is also concerned about Western influence in global governance being undermined. The use of Iranian drones by Russia to target critical infrastructure in Ukraine is a direct threat to Europe. Iranian drones have been used by Russia since September 2022, causing significant damage to Ukrainian infrastructure. Intelligence reports suggest Russia plans to manufacture sophisticated drones in collaboration with Iran, further complicating security dynamics. Additionally, there's concern over Iran potentially providing Russia with short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), which would pose a more significant challenge to Ukrainian defense. European governments are urged to enhance restrictive economic measures and deepen intelligence cooperation to counter this threat. Furthermore, any further deepening of military cooperation, such as the transfer of advanced fighter jets from Russia to Iran, could significantly alter the balance of military power in the Middle East, particularly against Israel and Saudi Arabia.

7. Future Trajectories and Possible Outcomes for Russia

• 7-1. Potential scenarios for Russia

• The future of Russia, as discussed by experts, comprises several potential scenarios. One major perspective posits that Russia might become a weak and dependent junior partner to China, or even a vassal state. Another scenario is the continuation of its current path as an isolated neo-Stalinist regime, resembling North Korea. Additionally, there is a possibility that after Vladimir Putin's tenure, Russia could face internal turmoil, descending into civil war and chaos. Among these scenarios, many experts believe that the most likely is Russia’s growing dependency on China due to the current geopolitical dynamics and significant economic ties that have recently developed.

• 7-2. Risks of dependency on China

• Russia’s increasing dependency on China carries several risks. Post-2014, following Western sanctions, Russia’s pivot towards China has intensified, accelerating economic ties that are primarily to China’s benefit. In 2023, China accounted for 37% of Russia’s imports, whereas Russia only made up 4% of China’s foreign trade. This deep asymmetry highlights Beijing’s leverage over Moscow. Furthermore, Russia’s economic struggles, lack of domestic innovation, and dependence on fossil fuel exports render it vulnerable. These factors suggest that if Russia continues on this trajectory, it might gradually become a vassal state to China, losing significant autonomy in the process.

8. US/NATO Strategy and the War

• 8-1. NATO's strategic adjustments

• NATO has been forced to return to its original mission of defending Europe against an aggressive and highly militarized Russian foreign policy. This adjustment became necessary due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which showcased the militarization and aggressive stance of Russian foreign policy. Historically, NATO-Russia relations had normalized post-Cold War, leading to a decrease in European defense investments. However, this trajectory reversed in 2014 with Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine. Now, NATO must expedite its efforts to bolster its capabilities in Europe. Key priorities include transitioning to forward defense, strengthening regional partnerships, and reestablishing risk-reduction mechanisms to manage potential escalation between NATO and Russia.

• 8-2. Implications for European security

• The war in Ukraine has significant implications for European security. For NATO, it underscores the importance of augmenting its capabilities and creating a greater role for Europe within the alliance. Russia’s aggressive militarization, highlighted by the development of new weapons systems and the integration of nuclear threats into its conventional strategy, presents new challenges. NATO's response involves enhancing readiness, increasing defense spending, and repositioning forces along the eastern flank to prevent escalation and ensure collective defense. The Moscow-initiated aggression has highlighted gaps in NATO's strategies and necessitated a broader reconsideration of how to effectively deter and respond to Russian threats.

9. Current Developments in Ukraine

• 9-1. Strategic victories and losses

• According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report titled 'Putin’s War Against Ukraine: The End of The Beginning,' a year into the conflict, Ukraine achieved a major strategic victory while Russia faced a significant strategic defeat. Despite this, the conflict shows no signs of ending, as neither side is ready to negotiate, and they are both preparing for major offensives. The Ukrainian army, although resilient, remains heavily dependent on Western military and financial support. Russia, on the other hand, has adapted to sanctions by finding new buyers for its oil and maintaining its defense production. The war has led to significant casualties, with Russia reportedly suffering 200,000 dead and wounded, and Ukraine around 100,000. Ukraine’s economic situation is dire, with its GDP having declined by one-third in 2022 and reconstruction costs exceeding $1 trillion.

• 9-2. Ongoing military threats

• As detailed in the American Media Group report, 'The Biden Administration has Released a Picture Revealing their EXACT Plan of Attack in the Event of WW3 with Russia - American Media Group,' NATO has taken unprecedented steps in its strategic preparations, deploying 300,000 troops for rapid deployment to counter threats in Eastern Europe. This highlights the significant and growing military threat posed by Russia. The ongoing conflict has been further intensified by the involvement of 50,000 Chechen soldiers allied with Russia. Additionally, tensions are exacerbated by the looming threat of World War III, propelled by the desire to expand NATO into Ukraine, which has been a contentious issue and a major factor in the ongoing conflict with Russia. Despite significant efforts by NATO, the prospect of negotiations and diplomatic solutions appears increasingly difficult under the current geopolitical climate.

10. Contributions to Peace and Diplomacy

• 10-1. US support for peace initiatives

• The United States has been actively involved in supporting peace initiatives in Ukraine. According to the referenced document, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) has been providing analysis and support for policies aimed at sustaining democracy, dialogue, and diplomacy in Ukraine. The U.S. has also voiced clear support for Ukraine’s efforts to achieve lasting peace and has been involved in various peace efforts including advocating for accountability for war crimes and supporting humanitarian measures to reduce civilian casualties.

• 10-2. Role of international law and diplomacy

• International law and diplomacy have played crucial roles in the peace efforts in Ukraine. The U.S. Department of Justice, among other entities, highlights the importance of the international rule of law in achieving peace. Efforts have been made to ensure accountability for violations of international law, as evidenced by investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the conflict. Diplomatic endeavors have included significant discussions around Ukraine’s peace plan and the potential for a 'peace summit' supported by the international community. The document also mentions the European Union's decision to begin accession talks with Ukraine as a positive step towards integrating Ukraine into broader European frameworks.

11. Conclusion

• The report underscores the multifaceted impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian War, significantly affecting global geopolitics and international relations. The interactions between major players such as NATO, Russia, China, and Iran illuminate the broader strategic and security implications. The analysis emphasizes the critical role of the United Nations Security Council in de-escalating conflicts and the pressing need for reforms to better address modern geopolitical tensions. The growing China-Russia partnership poses a significant challenge to the Western-led international order, while the deepening Russian-Iranian relationship directly threatens European security. These dynamics highlight the importance of adopting strategic diplomacy and collective security measures. Limitations of the report include the evolving nature of the conflict and the uncertainties surrounding future scenarios. Future prospects suggest a continuation of the strategic friction and an increasing dependency of Russia on China, while practical applicability emphasizes fortifying diplomatic efforts and reinforcing global security frameworks to manage and potentially resolve the conflict.

12. Glossary

• 12-1. Russo-Ukrainian War [Event]

• A war triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has significant global geopolitical implications, involving key players like the US, NATO, China, and Iran.

• 12-2. NATO [Organization]

• An intergovernmental military alliance between 30 North American and European countries, involved in strategic stability and defense adjustments in response to the Russo-Ukrainian War.

• 12-3. United Nations Security Council [Organization]

• A principal organ of the UN responsible for maintaining international peace and security, highlighted for its potential reforms and role in de-escalating modern conflicts.

• 12-4. China-Russia Relations [International Relationship]

• A strategic partnership characterized by economic and military cooperation, challenged by Western pressure and driven by mutual geopolitical goals, especially amidst the Ukraine crisis.

• 12-5. Russian-Iranian Relationship [International Relationship]

• A growing cooperation amidst the Ukraine war, posing threat to European security, and influencing diplomatic relations globally.

13. Source Documents

• Ending the War in Ukraine: Harder Than It Seems • Stimson Centerhttps://www.stimson.org/2024/ending-the-war-in-ukraine-harder-than-it-seems/
• US/NATO-Russian Strategic Stability and the War in Ukrainehttps://www.cna.org/reports/2023/06/us-nato-russian-strategic-stability-in-ukraine
• The Future According to Xi and Putinhttps://www.chinafile.com/conversation/future-according-xi-and-putin
• Instrument of order | Brookingshttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/instrument-of-order/
• Alone together: How the war in Ukraine shapes the Russian-Iranian relationshiphttps://ecfr.eu/publication/alone-together-how-the-war-in-ukraine-shapes-the-russian-iranian-relationship/
• HOW RUSSIA WILL BECOME A VASSAL STATE OF CHINA - The Sunday Guardian Livehttps://sundayguardianlive.com/investigation/how-russia-will-become-a-vassal-state-of-china
• Putin and Xi’s Unholy Alliancehttps://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/putin-and-xis-unholy-alliance
• Putin’s War Against Ukraine: The End of The Beginninghttps://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/17/putin-s-war-against-ukraine-end-of-beginning-pub-89071
• The Biden Administration has Released a Picture Revealing their EXACT Plan of Attack in the Event of WW3 with Russia - American Media Grouphttps://amg-news.com/the-biden-administration-has-released-a-picture-revealing-their-exact-plan-of-attack-in-the-event-of-ww3-with-russia/
• NATO and Russia after the Invasion of Ukrainehttps://www.gmfus.org/news/nato-and-russia-after-invasion-ukraine
• The Current Situation in Ukrainehttps://www.usip.org/current-situation-ukraine