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Geopolitical Shifts: Russia, China, and North Korea's Strategic Alliances

GOOVER DAILY REPORT June 27, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Russia-North Korea Defense Pact
  3. Xi and Putin's Strategic Partnership
  4. North Korea-Russia Alliance
  5. China's Strategic Calculations
  6. Economic Dependencies and Risks
  7. Broader Implications and Regional Concerns
  8. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report titled 'Geopolitical Shifts: Russia, China, and North Korea's Strategic Alliances' delves into the evolving geopolitical relationships between Russia, China, and North Korea. It explores the dynamics of defense agreements, trade collaborations, and strategic partnerships, highlighting the motivations and implications such alliances have on global stability and the US-led world order. Key findings indicate a significant shift in power dynamics within East Asia, with China maintaining a central role. Specific topics include the Russia-North Korea Defense Pact, implications for China's influence in the Korean Peninsula, and the strategic partnership between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The report also covers North Korea’s military support to Russia and the broader ramifications for regional players like the US, South Korea, Japan, and India.

2. Russia-North Korea Defense Pact

  • 2-1. Impact on China's Influence in the Korean Peninsula

  • With the newly formed defense pact between Russia and North Korea, concerns have risen about the potential impact on China's influence in the Korean Peninsula. Experts suggest that China's leaders may be worried about losing sway over North Korea, especially as the details of the agreement remain unclear. The pact may make North Korea more independent from China, particularly in reducing its reliance on Beijing. Some analysts believe that China is keeping a low profile on the matter to avoid pushing North Korea further into Russia's sphere, evidenced by China's muted public response to the agreement.

  • 2-2. Concerns over Russia Aiding North Korea's Weapons Program

  • Another critical aspect of the Russia-North Korea defense pact is the possibility that Russia might support North Korea's weapons program by sharing advanced technology. This potential cooperation could be a significant concern for China, which aims to prevent a nuclear power from growing more powerful on its doorstep. Experts indicate that if China is genuinely concerned, it has the leverage to place limitations on the Russia-North Korea relationship to protect its strategic interests.

  • 2-3. Implications for Regional Stability and Global Order

  • The defense pact between Russia and North Korea poses substantial implications for regional stability and the global order. By pledging mutual defense, both nations signal a strong connection reminiscent of Cold War alliances. This escalating partnership, as noted by experts, seems likely to increase instability on the Korean Peninsula. Additionally, global actors like the United States have expressed concern over this pact, emphasizing that it may challenge U.N. Security Council resolutions and affect the support dynamics for Ukraine. Overall, this new alliance introduces a degree of unpredictability and potential tension in East Asian geopolitics, upsetting the balance traditionally maintained by China's influence.

3. Xi and Putin's Strategic Partnership

  • 3-1. Reaffirmation of strong China-Russia ties

  • On May 16 and 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a state visit to China, where he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. This meeting was a continuation of their 'no limits' partnership declared in February 2022. The partnership has been solidified by China’s unyielding support for Russia, including increased bilateral trade which rose 26.3 percent between 2022 and 2023, reaching a record $240.1 billion. China has consistently bought large quantities of Russian fossil fuels and sold products essential to Russia. The visit reaffirmed the two leaders’ commitment to their strategic alliance, resisting Western efforts to separate them.

  • 3-2. Trade and media collaboration

  • During Putin’s visit, several agreements were signed to enhance cooperation between Russian and Chinese media. Russia Today and Xinhua News Agency signed a memorandum to hold an expert forum representing BRICS countries, and the Russian News Agency TASS and Xinhua agreed to share information. This is part of a 20-year trend of growing media partnerships and positive mutual media coverage. Economically, although specific major deals like the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline were not finalized, the visit underscored the commitment to expanding collaboration across various sectors including economic, geopolitical, educational, and military spheres.

  • 3-3. Challenges to Western-led order

  • The joint statements and symbolic gestures during the visit emphasized the shared values and visions of both nations, particularly their critique of U.S. hegemony and their advocacy for a multipolar world order. This stance is aimed at resonating with developing countries in the Global South who view the U.S. with skepticism. The collaboration extends to resisting Western norms and proposing their authoritarian alternatives. This visit, therefore, not only strengthened the bilateral ties but also highlighted their combined efforts to challenge the Western-led global order.

4. North Korea-Russia Alliance

  • 4-1. Shared anti-Western sentiments

  • Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin have consolidated their positions in an anti-Western, anti-democratic alliance. Both leaders share a vehement opposition to the US and its allies, striving to overturn the post-1945 global order. North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un’s commitment was solidified after the collapse of his negotiations with the US in 2019, pushing him closer to Russia. The alignment is ostensibly aimed at representing a 'new world order' extending from China to Iran.

  • 4-2. Exchange of military resources

  • The alliance between North Korea and Russia goes beyond shared sentiments; it includes significant military cooperation. North Korea has provided Russia with dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of ammunition containing millions of artillery shells, which were reportedly used in Ukraine. In return, Russia assists North Korea in upgrading its nuclear, missile, and space technologies.

  • 4-3. Potential diplomatic and economic isolation for Russia

  • Russia’s deepening relationship with North Korea has come with diplomatic and economic consequences. The international community, particularly at last week’s peace summit in Switzerland, largely condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, further isolating Russia. The alliance with North Korea underscores Russia’s desperation, showing its reliance on military imports and diminishing diplomatic influence. Moreover, the relationship with North Korea, while bolstering Russia’s military assets, could potentially strain its relationship with China, a significantly more crucial ally.

5. China's Strategic Calculations

  • 5-1. China's cautious approach to Russia-North Korea cooperation

  • China appears to be keeping its distance as Russia and North Korea move closer to each other with a new defense pact. The agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledges mutual aid if either country faces aggression. Experts suggest that China's leaders are likely concerned about a potential loss of influence over North Korea due to this pact, which could increase instability on the Korean Peninsula (source: go-public-web-eng-2877220144866105163-0-0). Beijing has not publicly commented on the deal, reiterating generic statements about peace and stability, avoiding overt responses possibly to prevent pushing North Korea further into Russia's embrace (source: go-public-web-eng-2877220144866105163-0-0).

  • 5-2. Impact on China's regional strategy

  • China's regional strategy could be significantly impacted by the Russia-North Korea defense pact. Some experts believe that the strengthening relationship between Russia and North Korea could push Beijing to reassess its strategies in the region. The U.S. is likely to respond to this new pact by further enhancing its security ties with South Korea and Japan, contributing to Beijing's concerns about U.S. military encroachment in the Asia-Pacific (source: go-public-web-kor-4886907046666683725-0-0). Additionally, the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea raises concerns in China about the potential advancement of North Korea's weapons programs with Russian assistance, a development that could destabilize the region further (source: go-public-web-kor-4886907046666683725-0-0).

  • 5-3. China's balancing act between supporting Russia and maintaining neutrality

  • China is navigating a complex situation where it needs to balance its support for Russia with maintaining a level of neutrality. Despite a 'no limits partnership' with Russia, China has shown caution in publicly supporting Russia-North Korea relations, preferring to frame its relationships with Russia and North Korea as separate bilateral relations rather than a trilateral alliance (source: go-public-web-kor-4886907046666683725-0-0). China aims to avoid jeopardizing its relations with Europe, South Korea, and Japan while managing its economic and diplomatic ties with Russia and North Korea. This balancing act is critical for China to maintain its strategic interests without becoming overly entangled in the North Korea-Russia dynamics (source: go-public-web-kor-4886907046666683725-0-0).

6. Economic Dependencies and Risks

  • 6-1. Russia's economic pivot to China

  • Russia's economic strategy has seen a significant shift towards China, especially following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The escalation of trade between Russia and China has reached unprecedented levels, with total trade turnover increasing from $147 billion in 2021 to $241 billion in 2023. This economic pivot has been largely driven by Russia's need to counteract the impact of extensive Western sanctions. The Chinese government has refrained from joining these sanctions and has instead fostered stronger economic ties with Russia, providing a critical lifeline to Moscow. The focus on yuan-based trade has also accelerated the de-dollarization of the Russian economy.

  • 6-2. China as Russia's largest export market

  • China has emerged as Russia's largest export market in recent years. In 2023, China accounted for 37% of Russia's imports, and bilateral trade between the two nations totaled $240 billion. The trade primarily consists of Russian energy commodities such as oil, gas, and coal, which constitute 73% of Russian exports to China. Conversely, Russia imports a significant amount of industrial equipment, cars, and electronics from China. This economic interdependence has significantly benefited Russia amid strained relations with Western nations.

  • 6-3. Potential risks of Russia becoming a vassal state to China

  • Despite the evident economic benefits, the growing asymmetric relationship between Russia and China poses several risks. With China only accounting for a small fraction of its global trade, around 4%, Beijing holds substantial leverage over Moscow. Analysts caution that as the economic dependency deepens, Russia risks becoming a vassal state to China. The imbalance is particularly concerning given Russia's limited domestic innovation, shallow capital markets, and an economy heavily reliant on diminishing fossil fuel exports. This dependency could lead to long-term economic and political subordination to China, reminiscent of the historical dynamics seen during the early Cold War but now with reversed roles.

7. Broader Implications and Regional Concerns

  • 7-1. Effect on US, South Korea, and Japan’s security policies

  • The evolving strategic partnerships among Russia, China, and North Korea have profound implications for the security policies of the United States, South Korea, and Japan. North Korea's increasing military cooperation with Russia and its hostile stance towards the US and its allies create challenges for regional security dynamics. North Korea's arms assistance to Russia includes the provision of artillery shells for the war in Ukraine, which could potentially enhance Russia's military capabilities. This development, coupled with North Korea's ballistic missile test launches and aggressive rhetoric against South Korea, underscores a heightened threat perception among US-led security alliances. To counter this threat, the US, South Korea, and Japan might consider revising their defense strategies and enhancing trilateral cooperation to ensure regional stability.

  • 7-2. India’s concerns over China-Russia cooperation

  • India is increasingly concerned about the deepening cooperation between China and Russia, particularly in light of its own strategic interests in the region. China's support of Russia amidst Western sanctions has implications for India's security calculus. With China leveraging its economic and military relationship with Russia, there is apprehension in New Delhi about a potential Chinese influence over Russian defense sales to India, such as the S-400 missile system. Additionally, the close ties between China and Russia could potentially put pressure on Russia to scale back its strategic cooperation with India. This situation is complicated by India's significant reliance on Russian oil and military equipment. The potential for China to use its leverage to affect diplomatic and defense dynamics poses a strategic dilemma for India as it navigates its relationships with both Russia and the West.

  • 7-3. Potential for new Cold War alliances

  • The reinforced strategic partnerships among Russia, China, and North Korea hint at the emergence of new Cold War-like alliances. Historically, these countries have shared a common agenda against Western influence, collaborating extensively during the Cold War. Currently, their cooperation extends to military support and economic collaboration, aligning against the US and its allies. China’s support for Russia amidst the Ukraine conflict and North Korea's military backing for Russia are indicative of a consolidated bloc that challenges the US-led order. Russia's increasing economic dependency on China further solidifies their alliance. However, underlying tensions exist, particularly in China's cautious approach towards providing direct military support to Russia and North Korea's unpredictable actions that could destabilize the region. These alliances necessitate vigilant monitoring as they have the potential to reshape global geopolitical dynamics.

8. Conclusion

  • The report signals substantial shifts in global geopolitics due to the alliances formed between Russia, China, and North Korea. China, under President Xi Jinping, adopts a cautious approach while maintaining strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia. The Russia-North Korea Defense Pact, endorsed by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, indicates deeper military cooperation, challenging the status quo in East Asia and posing significant concerns for regional stability. These relationships suggest a potential reconfiguration of global power structures, marked by China-Russia Trade becoming a crucial economic indicator. However, these alliances come with risks, including economic dependency and regional instability, necessitating vigilant international diplomacy and continuous geopolitical analysis. The future may see further strengthening of these alliances possibly leading to a new Cold War-like scenario, urging global actors to adapt their strategies accordingly.

9. Glossary

  • 9-1. Russia-North Korea Defense Pact [agreement]

  • A strategic defense agreement between Russia and North Korea that has raised concerns about regional stability and global security, especially impacting China's influence and posing a challenge to the US-led world order.

  • 9-2. Xi Jinping [person]

  • President of China who is actively involved in shaping China's strategic partnerships, especially with Russia, to balance geopolitical power and challenge Western dominance.

  • 9-3. Vladimir Putin [person]

  • President of Russia who is steering the country towards stronger ties with China and North Korea amidst Western sanctions, aiming to fortify a united front against Western influence.

  • 9-4. Kim Jong Un [person]

  • Supreme Leader of North Korea engaged in deepening military cooperation with Russia, thereby challenging regional stability and testing advanced weaponry with Russia's support.

  • 9-5. China-Russia Trade [economic activity]

  • Encompasses the expanding trade relations between China and Russia, with China emerging as Russia's largest market despite initial caution, highlighting the economic interdependence and strategic alignment of both nations.

10. Source Documents