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The Safety and Market Challenges of Tesla's Full Self-Driving and Cybertruck

GOOVER DAILY REPORT June 28, 2024
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Summary
  2. Safety Concerns with Tesla's Full Self-Driving
  3. Recent Recalls and Market Performance of Tesla Cybertruck
  4. Technological and Market Trends in the Electric Vehicle Industry
  5. Conclusion

1. Summary

  • The report addresses persistent safety issues associated with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and recent recalls affecting the Cybertruck. It presents findings from The Dawn Project and corroborative data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which highlight several significant safety failures in FSD. These issues continue despite public claims made by Elon Musk regarding the technology’s safety. The report also examines Tesla’s market performance, particularly focusing on the Cybertruck’s delivery numbers and the multiple recalls it has faced. Additionally, the document explores the competitive landscape of the electric vehicle (EV) market, detailing new product launches, technology advancements by other EV manufacturers, and market trends that influence EV development.

2. Safety Concerns with Tesla's Full Self-Driving

  • 2-1. Tesla's FSD vs Human Drivers

  • The Dawn Project's recent safety tests have demonstrated that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is far less safe than an average human driver. The tests highlighted critical safety failures, such as the inability to recognize a child crossing in a school crosswalk and difficulty completing a U-turn, leading to unpredictable and dangerous situations. Despite claims by Elon Musk that supervised FSD is safer than human driving, these findings have been validated by Tesla enthusiasts and reinforce that FSD is not yet safe for public roads.

  • 2-2. Elon Musk's Claims vs The Dawn Project's Findings

  • Elon Musk and Tesla have claimed that their self-driving software is significantly safer than human drivers. However, The Dawn Project has disproved several of these claims through extensive testing. For example, their research showed that FSD can fail to recognize 'Do Not Enter' and 'Road Closed' signs, freeze unexpectedly, or brake for no reason—all posing serious safety risks on public roads. Elon Musk has even acknowledged the necessity of rewriting the software multiple times, and FSD Beta tester Omar Qazi has admitted that previous versions were unsafe and should be withdrawn from public use.

  • 2-3. NHTSA Data on Tesla Self-Driving Crashes

  • The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data indicates that Tesla did not report 82% of police-reported crashes involving its self-driving software, only counting incidents where airbags deployed. This suggests a significant underreporting, with actual crash figures being over five and a half times higher than reported by Tesla. NHTSA corroborated The Dawn Project’s findings, concluding that Tesla's FSD is significantly less safe than human driving, and its driver monitoring system is inadequate to ensure safety. Moreover, Tesla is currently under investigation by NHTSA for crashes involving emergency vehicles linked to their self-driving technology.

3. Recent Recalls and Market Performance of Tesla Cybertruck

  • 3-1. Cybertruck Production and Delivery

  • Tesla began delivering the Cybertruck electric pickup in November 2023. As of May 2024, Tesla has reported delivering 11,688 units of the Cybertruck. This production figure puts the Cybertruck slightly behind Ford's F-150 Lightning, which saw sales of 13,093 units in the same period. Elon Musk has stated that Tesla is aiming to increase the production rate to 2,500 Cybertrucks per week by the end of the year, which would equate to an annual capacity of 125,000 units. Noteworthy is that Tesla reported reaching a peak production rate of 1,300 Cybertrucks per week recently.

  • 3-2. Details on Recent Recalls

  • The Cybertruck has been subject to multiple recalls since its release. In June 2024, Tesla issued a recall affecting 11,688 Cybertrucks due to a problem with the front windshield wiper motor controller, which could stop functioning because of excessive electricity directed to a component. This issue is expected to affect about 2% of the units produced from November 13, 2023, to June 6, 2024. As of June 12, 2024, Tesla stated that it is not aware of any injuries or deaths related to this issue. Another recall was issued due to a piece of black plastic trim on the truck's bed wall that can come loose and potentially create road hazards. Both issues have resulted in service centers being required to replace or properly install parts with specific materials such as ‘adhesion promotor’ and pressure-sensitive tape. Additionally, the Cybertruck was recalled in April 2024 over an accelerator issue caused by improper installation during assembly.

  • 3-3. Comparison with Competitor Models

  • Compared to its competitors, Tesla’s Cybertruck holds a unique position, but it faces stiff competition from models like the Ford F-150 Lightning, which leads in sales with 13,093 units by May 2024. The Ford model has seen a significant year-over-year increase in sales, up by 78.5% compared to last year. Despite the Cybertruck’s recall issues, it remains in close competition. Notably, the Tesla Model Y continues to be highly recognized, maintaining its position as the 'Most American-Made' car on Cars.com’s American Made Index (AMI). Tesla’s focus on leveraging software-defined vehicle technology and over-the-air updates also distinguishes its products, offering ongoing enhancements over their lifecycle.

4. Technological and Market Trends in the Electric Vehicle Industry

  • 4-1. New EV Launches and Prototypes

  • The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a surge of new launches and prototype unveilings. Notable developments include MINI's confirmation of the launch of the 4th-gen Cooper S and the updated Countryman E electric SUV in India on July 24, 2024. Audi's Q6 e-tron, an electric SUV, has been seen for the first time in the Indian market. McMurtry Automotive's compact EV, the Speirling, set a new record on the Hockenheim track in Germany. Ferrari is preparing to launch its first fully electric vehicle with a starting price of at least €500,000. Hyundai has also released a teaser for its first-ever fully-electric entry-level SUV, the Inster. Tesla's refreshed Model Y is not planned for a 2024 launch, according to Elon Musk, while the prototype of Mahindra's new vehicle, the XUV.e9, was recently observed awaiting shipment. Maruti Suzuki has announced its mid-size electric SUV, the eVX, will be released in early 2025. In the luxury sports EV segment, MG Motor showcased its first electric hypercar, the EXE181 concept, before its debut at Auto China 2024. Additionally, Porsche has updated its 2025 Taycan electric sedan with major enhancements.

  • 4-2. Advancements in EV Technology by Other Manufacturers

  • Various manufacturers are making significant technological advancements in the EV space. For instance, Hyundai's near-production Ioniq 7 model has been spotted undergoing testing. Rimac's Nevera supercar, designed by Mate Rimac, is now a reality fifteen years after founding his car company. Hyundai and Kia Motors have entered a strategic partnership with Exide Energy Solutions to boost their growth strategies in India. Stellantis has announced the launch of the 2024 Ypsilon, marking Lancia's first new car release in years. Meanwhile, Lamborghini has expressed doubts about the feasibility of electric supercars. Across different markets, notable advancements include Mercedes-AMG developing an electric SUV with over 1,000hp, BMW unveiling its Vision Neue Klasse X concept, and Chrysler presenting the Halcyon, an all-electric concept car built on Stellantis's STLA Large platform. Volkswagen R is set to become an independent brand, highlighting the innovative drive among traditional automakers.

  • 4-3. Market Trends Influencing EV Development

  • Several market trends are shaping the development and adoption of electric vehicles. The Indian automobile industry experienced a 19% increase in value during the 2023-24 financial year, reaching ₹10.22 lakh crore. Bengaluru led electric car registrations in India, surpassing major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Pune in 2023. The Indian government is launching the third phase of its EV incentive scheme, FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles). Tata Motors reported a 12% increase in total sales for both passenger and commercial vehicles in April 2024. Environmental sustainability is becoming a priority, leading more people in urban areas to seek greener transportation options. The global market is also seeing significant activity; Tesla announced price cuts in major markets including China, Germany, and the US. German automaker Volkswagen is gearing up to launch its ID.4 electric SUV in India in 2024, while Ford is preparing to re-enter the Indian market. In the US, Tesla is projected to generate $3.6 billion in revenue from the Indian market by 2030. On an international scale, Turkey has declared a 40% tariff on vehicle imports from China, and the US is planning to increase tariffs on Chinese EV imports.

5. Conclusion

  • The analysis highlights a stark contrast between Elon Musk’s public assertions and the real-world performance of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, as evidenced by thorough testing from The Dawn Project and NHTSA data. FSD has shown critical safety failures that are not yet mitigated, calling for continuous independent safety verifications and regulatory oversight. Meanwhile, ongoing recalls of the Tesla Cybertruck point to substantial production challenges and the necessity for quality improvements. Despite these hurdles, Tesla remains a vital player in the evolving EV market. The competitive pressure from other manufacturers who are advancing rapidly in EV technology underscores the need for Tesla to address its safety and production issues to maintain its market position. Future prospects involve rigorous safety testing, adherence to regulatory standards, and leveraging technological innovations to restore consumer trust and sustain market adoption of autonomous and electric vehicles.

6. Glossary

  • 6-1. Full Self-Driving (FSD) [Technology]

  • A semi-autonomous driving system developed by Tesla. Recent reports highlight significant safety issues, contrasting with claims of reliability and safety improvements made by Tesla's CEO Elon Musk.

  • 6-2. Cybertruck [Product]

  • Tesla's electric pickup truck. Despite significant pre-orders, the Cybertruck has faced multiple recalls due to safety issues, affecting its market performance and consumer perception.

  • 6-3. The Dawn Project [Organization]

  • A safety advocacy group that conducted independent testing on Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology, revealing substantial safety defects and challenging public assertions made by Tesla.

  • 6-4. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [Regulatory Body]

  • A U.S. federal agency responsible for enforcing vehicle performance standards. NHTSA data indicates higher crash rates involving Tesla's self-driving cars, underscoring the need for improved safety measures.

7. Source Documents